DBWI: Successful invasion of Poland

In 1939, the German Reich and the Soviet Union invaded Poland , almost overrunning the country, before being stopped by a military coalition formed by Britain, France and Italy
But what if the invasion had succeded?
Let's say that Britain and France hesitated or that Mussolini respected his alliance with Hitler.
What would be the consequence of a successful invasion?
 
Well, let's say Italy remained allied with Germany.

Then, Germany would not have had to defend its southern border, and France would have been forced to guard Tunisia and the Alps. However, either way, the Italian Army was not a major threat, it only tied some enemy forces on the border. Then, France and Britain would have either
1 ) declared war on both Germany and Soviet Union (but even with Italy on their side, they were reluctant to declare war on the Soviets, so unlikely)
2 ) declared war on Germany only. And then, France and Britain, having their navies and colonial empires, would have won. It would have been a repeat of 14-18 on the Western Front, but with colonial forces, the Entente would have won through attrition if nothing else.

2) being the most likely scenario, with eventual German defeat.
 
Yeah, we were lucky that Stalin decided that Poland wasn't worth the risk back in 1939, or the war would have lasted years

Poland wasn’t the hill Stalin wanted to die on, and he was smart enough to understand that. Hitler wasn’t smart enough to understand that and that’s why the Poland War ended in utter disaster for him and just forced neutrality for the USSR.

Well, let's say Italy remained allied with Germany.

Then, Germany would not have had to defend its southern border, and France would have been forced to guard Tunisia and the Alps. However, either way, the Italian Army was not a major threat, it only tied some enemy forces on the border. Then, France and Britain would have either
1 ) declared war on both Germany and Soviet Union (but even with Italy on their side, they were reluctant to declare war on the Soviets, so unlikely)
2 ) declared war on Germany only. And then, France and Britain, having their navies and colonial empires, would have won. It would have been a repeat of 14-18 on the Western Front, but with colonial forces, the Entente would have won through attrition if nothing else.

2) being the most likely scenario, with eventual German defeat.

You would need Mussolini to stay in power. Easy to do; just avert the plane crash that took his life.

And if the UK and France wanted to win, pissing off the Soviets was a bad idea. I mean, most people say they were a house of cards, but they didn’t need to bite off more than they could chew. Getting Stalin out of the way was the best move - no need to fight a two-front war, especially if it got dragged out and somehow the whole Axis got involved, especially Japan. I mean, three fronts? Plus take away the strategic advantage that flipping Italy gave the Allies? That could be the worst thing for the world.
 
I for one believe Germany but eventually turn on the Soviet Union. If you ever read Hitler's Manifesto Mine Kampf he goes into detail about his plans or Eastern Europe and the population there, it is quite horrifying.
After the fall of the Nazis the people in charge of the concentration camps where put on trial. The testimony of the defendents and evidence gathered by the prosecution strongly suggests Hitler had far bigger and more sinister plans.
It is highly unlikely he would have been able to do it ,he was lucky he got away with what he did. He invaded Poland to draw attention away from his crimes and prevent a military coup.
 
I for one believe Germany but eventually turn on the Soviet Union. If you ever read Hitler's Manifesto Mine Kampf he goes into detail about his plans or Eastern Europe and the population there, it is quite horrifying.
After the fall of the Nazis the people in charge of the concentration camps where put on trial. The testimony of the defendents and evidence gathered by the prosecution strongly suggests Hitler had far bigger and more sinister plans.
It is highly unlikely he would have been able to do it ,he was lucky he got away with what he did. He invaded Poland to draw attention away from his crimes and prevent a military coup.

For turning on Soviet Union, Hitler has to beat Britain and France first...

Yeah, we were lucky that Stalin decided that Poland wasn't worth the risk back in 1939, or the war would have lasted years

Actually, Stalin had envisioned to send the Red Army and VVS to fight on the Western Front, as well as invade Persia (and then India and Middle East).

But he wanted solid guarantees from Hitler, before committing to a total war against the Allies. Namely, that Hitler allowed him to puppetize Finland, Romania and Bulgaria as well as Turkey. Hitler refused. So, Stalin concluded an armistice with the Allies with forced neutrality instead.
 
Oh c'mon, let's be honest, only a madman like Hitler could've believed that he could have defeated the two largest powers of the time. France had the largest army in Europe, Britain an overwhelming Navy and Airforce. Of course their combined forces along with Italy defeated Germany.

Oh and the Czech uprising didn't help the Germans of course.
 
I for one believe Germany but eventually turn on the Soviet Union. If you ever read Hitler's Manifesto Mine Kampf he goes into detail about his plans or Eastern Europe and the population there, it is quite horrifying.
After the fall of the Nazis the people in charge of the concentration camps where put on trial. The testimony of the defendents and evidence gathered by the prosecution strongly suggests Hitler had far bigger and more sinister plans.
It is highly unlikely he would have been able to do it ,he was lucky he got away with what he did. He invaded Poland to draw attention away from his crimes and prevent a military coup.

Oh Din's red Earth...

Just for clarity right off the bat, I'm NOT claiming the Labor and State camps didn't exist or weren't the horrible political prisoner hellholes they clearly were (Though they hardly hold a candle to Slaughten Stalin's Gulags). But to say the Nazis only invaded Poland for party political reasons is just absurd. The Polish Corridor was a HUGE red spot on the geopolitical scene, and even many politicans in Britain as recently as 36' sympathied with the German cause in the region. It was Warsaw who was stonewalling on rectifying the situation along the lines of real self-determination, and I doubt the generals would have opposed any war with Poland who'd be getting no aid if they'd started with that demand, rather than placing it after the betrayal at Munich that really turned German diplomatic reputation into mud
 
Do you think that a surviving nazi germany would be allowed to join Italy's pact of steel togheter with Spain and other fascist powers?
I mean Italo Balbo never tried to hide his hate for Hitler's anti-semitism but maybe he could have still supported Germany for pragmatic reasons
 
Do you think that a surviving nazi germany would be allowed to join Italy's pact of steel togheter with Spain and other fascist powers?
I mean Italo Balbo never tried to hide his hate for Hitler's anti-semitism but maybe he could have still supported Germany for pragmatic reasons

I don't think so honestly. All European countries espoused racism, but even for their standards, Nazis were batshit extremists. But even though modern movies paint Balbo as a good man (easy in in contrast with Hitler)...

Balbo didn't have a problem with state racism (as he practised in African colonies, while his Hungarian, Croatian, Slovakian, Bulgarian and Romanian friends had Jim Crow-like laws and pogroms against Jews and Gypsies).

The main problem was that
1 ) He didn't want war against UK and France
2 ) Italy was focused on Africa and Balkans, while Germany didn't have the interests or will to support Rome there... Plus Germans wanted the Balkan in their own sphere. As seen when Germans tried to support the Iron Guard against Antonescu (who was pro-Italy)
3 ) Rome was aghast at the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

So, when Paris and Rome basically offered Rome a free hand in Balkans, plus a bigger share of Suez Canal and minor concessions in Somalia, Italians jumped on the occasion.
 
his Hungarian, Croatian, Slovakian, Bulgarian and Romanian friends had Jim Crow-like laws and pogroms against Jews
Yeah, it is a pity that zionism nevet took off and that England restricted jewish immigration to palestine until its indipendence
But even though modern movies paint Balbo as a good man
I am prety sure that Matteo Renzi's "Lybia" is the only italian movie where it is pointed out that the integration of Lybia was a lot less paceful and nice than what italians believe

As seen when Germans tried to support the Iron Guard against Antonescu (who was pro-Italy)
I remember reading about the Iron Guard when i was in high school
Say what you want about Antonescu but he was a saint compared to that bunch of maniacs
 
However, Yugoslavia got screwed hard in the deal. Germans had no major ambitions in the area, and were quite friendly towards Regent Paul (and Ioannis Metaxas). In fact, it was another problem between Italians and Germans.

Italy had envisioned joining Germany against the Entente, but Mussolini had demanded German approval and support for his conquest of Greece and Yugoslavia. However, Germans didn't want to spend resources in this area and then give everything to Italy (as was demanded), and they also feared to open a new front there (for example, if Germans and Italians had stuck together and invaded Greece, Britain would have intervened there, creating a new front). So, Rome couldn't achieve her imperial ambitions by aligning with Berlin.

On the other hand, Britain and France quietly agreed to throw Greece and Yugoslavia under the bus if Italy joined them. Plus Italy gained military experience fighting Germans, and her forces, in abysmal state at the beginning, became good at the end of the Polish War. We know the result.

The Independent State of Croatia was created, with the Duke of Aosta (Aimone) as the King (the only reason Croatians became somehow independent was that Italy had needed their support to destroy Yugoslavia easier). The Ustase wanted to genocide the Serbian and Muslim Bosnian minorities in B-H, but Italy opposed it and instead deported those minorities towards Libya (where they got citizen status, bolstering the colonist population against the rebellious locals). Slovenia, Serbia and Montenegro were forced into a personal union with Italy (just like Albania), becoming protectorates basically. Dalmatia and Istria were annexed, obviously (with once again, minorities deported to Libya). And of course, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria got bits of Yugoslavia too.

Once Yugoslavia was "done", Greece was next in the menu, but fortunately, the Turks honored their 1930 friendship treaty and 1936 Balkan Pact, and intervened on the side of Greece...
 
Once Yugoslavia was "done", Greece was next in the menu, but fortunately, the Turks honored their 1930 friendship treaty and 1936 Balkan Pact, and intervened on the side of Greece.
Yeah i don't thonk that anyone was expecting this
On the other hand i am pretty sure Italy hit them back pretty hard in 1944 when they started supporting kurdish rebels ( ironically they ended up supporting the same side of the soviet union that time)
The Ustase wanted to genocide the Serbian and Muslim Bosnian minorities in B-H, but Italy opposed it and instead deported those minorities towards Libya
And this is why the situation in italian lybia is still a mess
Seriously i am surprised Italy managed to integre it without starting a civil war
On the other hand, Britain and France quietly agreed to throw Greece and Yugoslavia under the bus if Italy joined them.
I wonder what would have happened if they had refused
Even in Otl Mussolini and Balbo hesitated until the start of the war before attacking austria
By the way you forgot that Mussolini also restored the austrian monarky after the war
 
I suspect that if both the Entente and Germany had refused to endorse Italian aims in the Balkans, Italy would have remained neutral in the Polish War, but would also have taken advantage of the situation (basically, Paris, London and Berlin all too busy to care) to invade Greece and/or Yugoslavia on its own anyway. But then, Italy might well have faced the entire Balkan Pact (Greece, Turkey, Yugoslavia and Romania), instead of just Greece and Turkey, in a serious war (the Balkan Pact had been designed to deal with this very situation, of Italian expansionism, after all).

By the way you forgot that Mussolini also restored the austrian monarky after the war

And then, Austrians pretended (and still do today) that they were merely victims of the Nazis (just like Czechs and Poles), even though most of them embraced Nazism and German identity once their country was annexed.

On the other hand i am pretty sure Italy hit them back pretty hard in 1944 when they started supporting kurdish rebels ( ironically they ended up supporting the same side of the soviet union that time)

Turkey was "saved" from this crisis by the help of Iran and Irak (thanks to the Saadabad Pact) as well as Greece (as soon as Italy signed peace, Greek troops were deployed to help their Turkish friends), especially as Kurdish rebellion had spread to both countries. The result was waves of Kurdish refugees (both civilian and armed rebels) flooding Syria and Lebanon and Palestine, which were already a mess after France and the UK pulled out in 1943.
 
And then, Austrians pretended (and still do today) that they were merely victims of the Nazis (just like Czechs and Poles), even though most of them embraced Nazism and German identity once their country was annexed.
Well, their fascist government ended only in 1963 so this is hardly a surprise
There is also the problem that Italy itself was the source of this propaganda , considering Mussolini and Balbo's use of Nazism as scapegoat ( seriously how many people were arrested for being "secret nazi -comunist spies"?)
The result was waves of Kurdish refugees (both civilian and armed rebels) flooding Syria and Lebanon and Palestine, which were already a mess after France and the UK pulled out in 1943.
Thank God for Nasser and the UAR .
Without them the Middle east would still be a mess
 
Well, Italy was the biggest winner of the Polish War in relative terms. The country picked the right side (France + Britain), and took only limited losses against Germans in the Alps (and then, the invasion of Austria once the Reich started to collapse, which was rather easy). In return, Italy got a free hand in the Balkans (managing to build an empire with Yugoslavia and Albania, plus having Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria as junior partners).

However, all this success would be squandered as we know. Firstly, the fascist government mismanaged the economy, and even with the discovery of oil in Libya, it was not enough. Secondly, Libya became a hotbed of rebellion, with native Libyans as well as deported Slavs fighting both the Italian power and each other. And even many Italian colonists actually opposed the fascist power, as they wanted to create their own colonial autonomous government (free from fascist authoritarism and mismanagement). And of course, Soviet, UAR and Greek weapons found their way in Libya often.

Then, in 1957, as Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal, Italy launched an invasion of Egypt (and Sudan, which was still united with Egypt), which was initially a military success, but soon turned into a disaster, as Egyptians were well prepared and fought to the death, while Italian troops had been neglected (in terms of equipment) and had incompetent, glory-seeking and arrogant commanders appointed by the Duce and the Council. And as the Italians were mired in the Libyan troubles and invasion of Egypt, of course, Greece took advantage of this to finally boot the Italians out of Serbia and Albania (while the Turks guarded the Bulgarian border for Greece in the meantime, so Sofia didn't get funny ideas).

Italy lost the Balkan Liberation War (as Greeks call it), being driven from Serbia and Albania, and was soon forced to pull out of Egypt. Then, Italian fascism collapsed to the Carnation Revolution, which sparked a wave of democracy in Europe, toppling authoritarian regimes from Spain and Portugal to Austria, Hungary, Romania, and ironically, Greece and Turkey (which became vibrant democracies).
 
Last edited:
Top