DBWI: Spain repels Japanese invasion of the Philippines

We all know that under Tokugawa Hidetada, a decision was made to undergo a fleet build up and a subsequent invasion of what was than called the Philippines in 1617. Whatever defense the Spanish Empire had was quickly routed and kicked off the island. What proceeded was Spain's hapless attempt at re-invading and reinforcing the Philippines only to be quickly beaten on land while being able to somewhat keep up with the Japanese despite the Spanish's logistical issues. In the end Spain conceded the Philippines to the Tokugawa Shogunate. who as we all know expanded further throughout the South Pacific creating the Japanese Empire.

Was there really any way the Spanish could of stopped the Japanese Empire before it even became the empire that it became?
 
Well, Toyotomi Hideyoshi had been tempted to invade China via Korea, but after the Koreans denied the Japanese passage through the peninsula, he abandoned the idea. Had he invaded Korea, they would have ended trade and other important cultural exchanges that helped Japan develop culturally.

Toyotomi instead turned his attention south toward conquering the Ryukyu Kingdom and the Ming-controlled Island of Taiwan (conquered by Ming Dynasty China sometime during the 16th Century). Had the Dutch or Spanish contended with the Ming harder for control of Formosa (what the Europeans call Taiwan to this day), Japan would have never acquired such an important hub to build up its navy before the Japanese-Spanish War.
 
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Perhaps the Bruneians would not be able to regain the Philippines, the Bruneians and the Japanese allied and the Bruneians gave the Japanese concessions that is why it seemed like that the Japanese ruled them.
 
Maybe if the Forty Years' War doesn't happen? The Spanish would have needed to commit heavily to the war to break the Japanese, and that wasn't an option if they had to focus so heavily on Europe and the Americas. If the Spanish did happen to win though, history as we know it is completely different because it would basically strangle the largest empire in history in its crib. Japan would probably still be a major power on the world stage in this timeline, but they probably wouldn't spread from the Suez to the Patagonians at their height.
 
Maybe if the Forty Years' War doesn't happen? The Spanish would have needed to commit heavily to the war to break the Japanese, and that wasn't an option if they had to focus so heavily on Europe and the Americas. If the Spanish did happen to win though, history as we know it is completely different because it would basically strangle the largest empire in history in its crib. Japan would probably still be a major power on the world stage in this timeline, but they probably wouldn't spread from the Suez to the Patagonians at their height.
Would the institution of slavery as practiced in the west spread throughout the Pacific with the Japanese Empire being butterflied away? Despite it's hegemony, the Japanese sphere was staunchly anti-slavery to the point they even trained and armed African tribes to the point it seriously undermined the slave trade in Europe.

I wonder what the religious makeup of the South East Pacific would be today, would they still be Hindu or Spain had replaced Japan as the hegemon and converted everyone to Christianity?


(also can a mod move this thread to Before 1900 please?)
 
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