During the opening stages of the Afghan Civil War in late 1979, many Soviet politicians wanted the USSR to intervene. However, Brezhnev got cold feet and refused to enter, only sending arms to the communist Afghan government. However, what if the USSR did intervene in Afghanistan? Would they had won?
DBWI: Soviet intervention in Afghan Civil War?
- Thread starter lerk
- Start date
-
- Tags
- afghanistan soviet union
Well, the USSR probably wouldn't have successfully reformed into the Union of Sovereign States under Mikhail Gorbachev. And as for a POD, maybe the Shah of Iran not dying in 1977?
OOC: Basically you pretend you are in an ATL and speculate about what would happen if an OTL thing happened.
Example -
DBWI: Kennedy killed in 1963?
Afganistan has spent hundreds of years pushing back invaders, and I have no doubt that irregular warfare and long supply lines would have worn down the Soviets had they made an attempt. It's possible to occupy the place, but any kind of conquest (and let's be honest, that's what we're talking about) extends only until the occupier decides to cut their losses.
OOC: Double Blind (What If). The term stems from clinical trials.
OOC: Double Blind (What If). The term stems from clinical trials.
So, basically, Afghanistan will be Soviet's Vietnam war if they directly intervene?
I wouldn’t think so because of the weak military and soviet strength, but it’s possible. Maybe the Soviet leadership sees its annother Finland/Russian vieatnam and decide to withdraw? This could cause America to fund the other side of the civil war.
Who knows, if the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, maybe they could've prevented the communist government from being overthrown by the Mujaheddin. Though of course, the jihadi rebels could've given the USSR enough trouble that they would've quit and failed to keep their puppet government alive anyways, much like with the USA in the Vietnam War.
I heard that some wealthy Saudi businessman (What's his name? Something bin Laden) claimed that he would've personally gone to Afghanistan to fight off the Soviets if they invaded. I wonder how this guy would fare as a jihadist warlord, he would've made a lot of connections, maybe even with the CIA sending him money and guns.
I heard that some wealthy Saudi businessman (What's his name? Something bin Laden) claimed that he would've personally gone to Afghanistan to fight off the Soviets if they invaded. I wonder how this guy would fare as a jihadist warlord, he would've made a lot of connections, maybe even with the CIA sending him money and guns.
Last edited:
He was a good organizer actually. Most people don’t know that there was a plot to bomb the north tower of the World Trade Center. It was uncovered after the guy asked the Saudi government for funding.
OCC: Double blind what if is where you put yourself in the shoes of someone answering the question from a different timeline. Kinda like minor role play. Eg. "What if the Allies won world war 2?" and the people answering would pretend to answer like they are from that reality to build a scenario.
I mwan maybe they would act if Iran never intervened. Maybe if the Communist revolution in Iran never happened that could be prevented. Maybe if the Shah didn’t die in 1977 the revolution would have been avoided.
Although maybe they would have had another revolution. Iran was already pretty unstable politically.
Although maybe they would have had another revolution. Iran was already pretty unstable politically.
samcster94
Banned
I imagine it'd leave a bunch of people dead and break the Russian spirt badly. It was a wise moved for Brezhnev to avoid invading. He may have chosen differently had Iran fallen to a different force, such as the radical cleric Khomeini, who was notoriously superstitious and elderly.
Well it was kinda hard for him to win the Iranian civil war when the Shah and Communist rebels were the biggest factions. Maybe Iran continues to be ruled under the shah? If that’s the case then there’s a chance Carter beats Reagan in 1980 since there would be no war prisoner negotiations (along with the fact that his approval ratings plummeted after a vital ally was lost to the communists.) Maybe Bush wins in ‘84? If that’s the case I don’t see relations warming up between the US and USSR like how they did under Reagan.