OOC Post:
I’ve enjoyed responding to this post, so I came up with a short timeline based on what I’ve posted before and then expanding it (mostly focuses on American politics and history, sorry to exclude much of the rest of the world). This is just a quick one for fun, as I stop around the late 80s:
1960 Election:
Nixon/Lodge defeats Kennedy/Symington in the US Presidential election.
Electoral Vote Count: 278 to 250 (with still 9 unpledged and faithless electors) (I had Texas, Illinois & South Carolina go to the Republicans and gave Mississippi back to the Democrats.)
1961:
Nixon backs the Bay of Pigs invasion with air support and Castro is overthrown. This move is condemned by much of South & Central America, as well as the Soviet bloc.
The Cold War gets colder – No Test Ban Treaty and above ground weapons testing continues until the mid 70s.
The Berlin Wall Crisis takes place much as it did in OTL, and luckily a full-scale superpower war is averted.
The economy (1960s & 70s):
I have the economy doing not quite as well in the early 60s as Nixon does not cut taxes as deeply as Kennedy did. At the same time, though, given that Nixon does not escalate the Vietnam conflict as much as Johnson did, and he does not launch the War on Poverty, we do not see the economic conditions that lead to downturns in the early 70s. Instead, the economy stays at a decent level of growth until the late 70s/early 80s, when the largest downturn since the Depression takes place.
Vietnam:
Nixon does not overthrow and kill Diem in ’63. As a result, Diem remains in place as dictator of South Vietnam. With massive amounts of American aid, he retains power, killing tens of thousands of his own citizens in the process, persecuting Buddhists and keeping an iron grip on the country. The NLF insurrection never goes away, but never manages to overthrow Diem.
Nixon’s support of Diem is seen in a poor light by the left and liberals in the US, but without a great number of American troops dying over there (total American deaths in Vietnam number in the hundreds during the 60s), there is no great wellspring of American opinion against the war. The edge of the culture war that began in the late 60s is somewhere blunted, although it does still take place.
Eventually, Diem’s regime is overthrown after his death in 1981. His family flees Vietnam, their status in the world’s eyes much like that of the Marcos. The military that overthrows him attempts to have elections. The elections are inconclusive, with no clear winners, and South Vietnam breaks out into civil war in 1982. North Vietnam invades and re-unifies the country. The loss of South Vietnam, combined with the harsh economic climate of the early 80s, ends the presidency of Ted Kennedy after one term.
1964 American election:
Nixon/Lodge easily defeats Humphrey/Gore, with the Democrats winning only the South, Minnesota and a couple of other states. (JFK chose not to run, instead waiting until 1968)
1965:
Nixon signs into law the Civil Rights Act over a storm of protest from the South.
Indonesia:
General Suharto attempts to overthrow the government of Sukarno. He does not, however, have the full support of the military, and despite the deaths of one hundred thousand Indonesians he is only able to take control of parts of the country. He is ousted from Java within a year and continues his fights from bases on Sumatra and Kalimantan.
Nixon decides to full back Suharto, especially given the close relations between China and Sukarno. A large amount of aid and eventually small numbers of American forces are sent to support the would-be dictator. However, the war is not successful for Nixon as Suharto cannot gain control of the country and begins to lose what support he has. In late 1967, the number of American deaths in Indonesia passes one thousand and many begin to feel that the way was a mistake.
After Jack Kennedy’s election in 1968, American troops are slowly withdrawn from Indonesia, the last leaving in 1970. Suharto is captured and executed in ’71 and the last of his forces surrender soon after. Indonesia breaks off relations with the US and does not resume them again until after Sukarno’s death 1978.
1968 election:
The Democrats easily win this election, as Kennedy/Brown (Pat Brown, who did not lose to Ronald Reagan in ’67 ITTL) defeats Romney/Scranton.
It has been an unusual move for the Republicans to pick candidates from Pennsylvania & Michigan, but the party hoped to win key northern states while writing off the south. They did win their candidates two home states, as well as Ohio, but lost California, New York, Massachusetts, and the entire South.
1972 election:
This becomes the most lopsided election in American history. After a contentious battle in the primaries, Nelson Rockefeller manages to win the Republican nomination. This, however, alienates the conservative wing of the party, who had been backing their perennial favourite, Barry Goldwater. As a result, the conservatives don’t really back the Republicans in the election. At the same time, the continuing good economic times, as well as Kennedy’s management of foreign policy, leaves the American people little appetite for change. Rockefeller manages to win only DC, as he even loses in his home state of New York.
American relations with China:
There is no “Nixon in China” moment, and the American intervention in Indonesia leads to worsening relations with China. At the same time, a détente does occur with the Soviet Union, as Kennedy cultivates a better relationship with the Soviet Bloc. Communist China is not officially recognized by the US until 1987 by President Kemp.
1976 election:
It is widely assumed the Senator Robert Kennedy will follow his brother into the White House. And he does declare himself as a candidate. However, a number of revelations come out in January ’76 revealing problems in his marriage – this leads to the discovery of his drug use and repeated infidelity. He withdraws from the race and there is speculation he may even quit the Senate. However, he keeps his seat and is returned to the Senate until his death in 2003.
Ted Kennedy does not to enter the race and the Democratic nomination goes down to a contest between Senator Scoop Jackson and Senator Birch Bayh, a contest between the more conservative and more liberal wings of the party. Jackson wins and he goes on to win the general election.
Jackson’s term in office:
Jackson, despite being from the same party as Kennedy, pulls away from Kennedy’s foreign policy, expanding the defence budget and scaling back Kennedy’s attempts to improve relations with the Soviet Union. Some believe that this leads to a new era of Cold War confrontation, as seen in the El Salvadoran crisis of ’79, while others support his stance as one of moral fortitude. On the domestic front, there are few highlights from Jackson’s administration, as the economy continues to grow, albeit more slowly, and the rapid rise of oil prices over the decade due to the three Arab-Israeli wars leads to increases in both inflation and unemployment.
1980 election:
Jackson suffers a heart attack in November of 1979, and decides that, for health reasons, he will not run for re-election.
Ted Kennedy decides that the time is right for him to run, and he easily wins the Democratic nomination.
Many feel that the Republicans will win the election due to the slowing economy and the fact that the Democrats have held the Presidency for over a decade. However, Kennedy’s vigorous campaign helps to pull out a narrow victory. It is a pyrrhic victory, though, as Kennedy is president right at the wrong time.
Kennedy’s administration:
Kennedy scales back defence spending and attempts to implement a number of social programs, including a national childcare program. However, the almost-constant unrest in the Middle East, highlighted by three civil wars in Iran, Egypt & Lebanon, pushes the price of oil continuously up. The US falls into recession in late 1981 and it does not being to recover until 1984.
At the same time, Kennedy’s loss of South Vietnam in 1982, and his inaction during the Soviet invasion of Poland in the same year, leads to the perception of a president weak at both home and abroad. It is the end of the Kennedy dynasty and his defeat in 1984 is almost certain.
1984 election:
Kennedy survives an internal challenge in the primaries to win the Democratic nomination. Congressman Jack Kemp is the surprise nominee for the Republicans, as he manages to unite both the libertarian side of the Republican Party, as well as the traditional moderate side. He balances the ticket by selecting Senator Orrin Hatch, mostly to placate Social Conservatives within the party.
Kemp wins the election easily, even making inroads into the South. During Kemp’s term in office, he implements a number of pro-business initiatives, slashing taxes and cutting social programs. The economy booms well into the 90s.
As far as foreign policy goes, Kemp is cold to the Soviet Union, especially after their actions in Eastern Europe, but he turns American policy on its head by recognizing China in 1987.
Kemp easily wins re-election in ’88.