DBWI: Romney wins the primary

samcster94

Banned
In OTL, 2012 for the Republicans was the first Brokered Convention in decades. None of the four candidates had the required delegate count to be nominated. The Republicans decided to pick Scott Walker with Haley Barbour(to reach out to Southern voters more) as the running mate. The result was a horrible defeat with over 400 votes for Obama and the vote not only had all the states from 08, but had flipped Georgia of all places. What can be done to make it so that Romney wins the primary and there is no convention issues????
 
Romney was politically done by that point. He came in third in '08 and, even when he was the frontrunner (ie. only semi-centrist establishment Republican running) he couldn't even secure a majority.

No way he'd perform much better if he got the nomination at the Convention. I feel as though he'd probably pick Barbour as well (if the RNC picked Barbour for Walker, they would pick him for Romney). The main thing that hurt them was that disaster of a convention with all those middle aged white men close to rioting. It looked like the Dems in '68. Without that they still lose, but maybe not in Georgia.

If Walker didn't run then the only establishment candidates would be Romney and Gingrich (who was a non-presence).
 
I disagree that Romney would have lost as bad as Walker did, for one thing he probably wouldn't have made the mistake of trying to turn this into a weird battle over unionized labour. Walker became wildly unpopular after leaked emails included plans to extend right to work across the nation. And Romney certainly wouldn't have called himself a "second Reagan" all the time threatening any union that strikes during his presidency if elected, and forcing almost everyone in a union to vote Obama. Perhaps the final nail in his coffin was his attempt to create jobs by giving such big tax cuts and subsidies to companies if they came to Wisconsin that even the most die hard of his party had a hard time defending it. If it was't for Walker's disastrous run against Obama then Walker might have been able to hold onto the Governorship. Furthermore Obama wouldn't have been forced to take such a pro Union position. Ron Johnson probably would have been able to beat Russ Feingold for Senate. Bernie Sanders could even have been beaten by Jeb Bush for the presidency in 2016 (god forbid). If not for Walker being the Republican candidate for President, and making such a complete mess of it Wisconsin and the nation as a whole would probably be way farther right.
I think another question worth asking is what if Walker was the candidate of the Republican party, but instead of being completely incompetent and confrontational he actually knew what he was doing.

OOC: I am from Wisconsin and my dad is a civil servant, and I went to a lot of Act Ten protests. If any of this is too unlikely or politically charged. I can edit it.
 
If Walker had managed to come off as a complete idiot in the Republican debates , like he did when he faced Obama , Romney could have easily won the nomination.
Saturday night live had a field day with those 3 debates. They referred to them as "the bitch smack and the curb stomp and the seal clubbing".
 
I disagree that Romney would have lost as bad as Walker did, for one thing he probably wouldn't have made the mistake of trying to turn this into a weird battle over unionized labour. Walker became wildly unpopular after leaked emails included plans to extend right to work across the nation. And Romney certainly wouldn't have called himself a "second Reagan" all the time threatening any union that strikes during his presidency if elected, and forcing almost everyone in a union to vote Obama. Perhaps the final nail in his coffin was his attempt to create jobs by giving such big tax cuts and subsidies to companies if they came to Wisconsin that even the most die hard of his party had a hard time defending it. If it was't for Walker's disastrous run against Obama then Walker might have been able to hold onto the Governorship. Furthermore Obama wouldn't have been forced to take such a pro Union position. Ron Johnson probably would have been able to beat Russ Feingold for Senate. Bernie Sanders could even have been beaten by Jeb Bush for the presidency in 2016 (god forbid). If not for Walker being the Republican candidate for President, and making such a complete mess of it Wisconsin and the nation as a whole would probably be way farther right.
I think another question worth asking is what if Walker was the candidate of the Republican party, but instead of being completely incompetent and confrontational he actually knew what he was doing.

OOC: I am from Wisconsin and my dad is a civil servant, and I went to a lot of Act Ten protests. If any of this is too unlikely or politically charged. I can edit it.

Yeah, I think losing the recall election really was one of the big factors in Walker losing so badly to Obama. If your own state won't vote for you, most of the country won't, either. Romney, to my understanding, was fairly popular as Governor of Massachussetts, so he had an advantage there. Maybe have Romney stay consistent in being moderate instead of shifting to the right, which made him vulnerable to being called a flip-flopper?

And, if you want him to win the general, not just the primary, you're going to want to avoid a brokered convention at all costs. That damaged the GOP where they'd normally have had a convention bounce, and the contrast with the DNC was night and day.

OOC: I personally doubt that Bush would win the 2016 primary. None of the conditions that resulted in Trump winning are butterflied away from this, from what I can tell.
 
Bernie Sanders could even have been beaten by Jeb Bush for the presidency in 2016 (god forbid).

The thing is... Bush would have won, if a few thousand people in Virginia and West Virginia voted differently. The only reason they went for Sanders is because of that leaked tape of Fiorina making a joke about how they were inbred.

I feel kinda bad for Bush, in a way. He knew exactly what he needed to do to win, but the Republicans still have that streak of anti-union sentiment, even after Walker's loss (hence why they forced Fiorina into the VP slot), and he just didn't have quite enough oomph behind him to make the changes he needed to - the RNC only grudgingly accepted him as the nominee because his father passed away and the sympathy vote caused him to win the primaries by a squeaker over Cruz. Remember there was worries for a while that they'd have their second contested convention in a row?
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OOC: The electoral college maps for 2012 and 2016:
ObamaWalker2012.PNG


JebvsBernie2016.PNG
 
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Yeah, I particularly like the irony of the NE state legislature switching to WTA after 08... only for the Obama/Hagel ticket to win the state outright. All in all, a very weird election.

Do you think Romney could’ve won? It seems like you’d have to move a lot just to get close, and Obama had an EV advantage, although it didn’t come up because his lead was already so big.

What do you think a victory map would look like?

And what about a running mate?

OOC: The only way I can think Obama would win all of Nebraska’s 5 EVs
 

samcster94

Banned
Yeah, I particularly like the irony of the NE state legislature switching to WTA after 08... only for the Obama/Hagel ticket to win the state outright. All in all, a very weird election.

Do you think Romney could’ve won? It seems like you’d have to move a lot just to get close, and Obama had an EV advantage, although it didn’t come up because his lead was already so big.

What do you think a victory map would look like?

And what about a running mate?

OOC: The only way I can think Obama would win all of Nebraska’s 5 EVs

OOC: Why did Obama drop Biden in this 2012?
 
OOC: Why did Obama drop Biden in this 2012?

OOC: Anita Hill blows up in Biden’s face? His gaffes get even worse? Getting Hagel on the ticket is pretty out there already, but so is all of Nebraska voting D, so I figured they cancelled each other out.
 
Yeah, I think losing the recall election really was one of the big factors in Walker losing so badly to Obama. If your own state won't vote for you, most of the country won't, either. Romney, to my understanding, was fairly popular as Governor of Massachussetts, so he had an advantage there. Maybe have Romney stay consistent in being moderate instead of shifting to the right, which made him vulnerable to being called a flip-flopper?

And, if you want him to win the general, not just the primary, you're going to want to avoid a brokered convention at all costs. That damaged the GOP where they'd normally have had a convention bounce, and the contrast with the DNC was night and day.

OOC: I personally doubt that Bush would win the 2016 primary. None of the conditions that resulted in Trump winning are butterflied away from this, from what I can tell.
OOC:The reason I figured that Trump might not get the nomination ITTL, is that he ran on a platform of white resentment and anti immigration. ITTL a run by Walker forced the conversation to be about organized labor. Which is a field a classic Republican could do much better in than some like Trump, also something that I think Sanders would be much better at talking about than Hillary, though his platform would be forced into a more: We need to have Unions! Than: We need a Revolution!
 

samcster94

Banned
OOC: Let's try and avoid talking about Trump and Clinton altogether, yeah? I've already flirted with current politics by talking about the 2016 election (even if it's the TTL version), so I don't wanna push it.
IC: The Dems narrowly held the Senate in the 2014 midterms given the Reps were tainted by the 2012 defeat.
 
IC: The Dems narrowly held the Senate in the 2014 midterms given the Reps were tainted by the 2012 defeat.

Yeah, it'd be interesting what effect a respectable Romney defeat would have on the 2014 mid-terms. Holding Colorado, Iowa, Montana, and West Virginia were all pretty impressive, all things considered. I imagine the Republican gains in the House would also be larger.
 
I think the butterflies are incredible. Probably no Trump News Network. Rand Paul might still be a Senator in Kentucky. I also think it would have had to butterfly away Al Moore being the senator from Georgia.
 
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