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As you all know, Vice President Connally was elected President of the United States against Mo Udall in 1976, but only after the assassination of Governor Ronald W. Reagan on May 26. After sweeping the primaries that night, Governor Reagan was shot to death. Connally had an advantage among delegates not bounded by the primaries and popular President Nixon's solid support, so while Reagan was leading, he may still have lost the nomination to Connally. As for Mo Udall, he became the frontrunner only after Senator Robert F. Kennedy dropped out of the race following the death of his son, Robert F. Kennedy Jr in a car accident. What if Kennedy did not drop out and Reagan was not assassinated? Who do you think would win in 1976?

OTL 1976:
John Connally / Charles H. Percy (Republican) 492 EV, 56.2%
Mo Udall / Henry M. Jackson (Democrat) 46EV, 42.6%


Gallup poll in March 1976:
Kennedy 49%, Reagan 42%
Kennedy 41%, Connally 45%
Udall 42%, Reagan 44%
Udall 38%, Connally 50%

Gallup poll in May 1976:
Udall 45%, Reagan 45%
Udall 40%, Connally 51%

Given the last poll with both Reagan and Kennedy, despite President Nixon's popularity, Reagan would still have lost to Kennedy by wide margins, but who knows if Reagan could pull off an upset after the debates? In OTL, Connally refused to debate Udall, maybe Kennedy and Reagan would agree to be engaged in a debate?

If Kennedy won in 1976 in TTL, instead of in 1980, would he be facing a very tough time trying to run for re-election given the economic downturn? Would he have made the unpopular decision to crush the Islamic revolution in Iran by sending US troops like Connally did?

OTL 1980:

Robert F. Kennedy / Lloyd Bentsen (Democrat) 403EV, 54.9%
John B. Connally / Charles Percy (Republican) 135EV, 43.8%

In OTL, RFK crushed Connally, even capturing Connally's home state of Texas by a razor-thin margin of 0.1%. He only lost Florida, Georgia, North Carolina by razor-thin margins to Connally. If Kennedy was President, could he possibly survive 1980? If Reagan was president, could he do worse than Connally in OTL?

Presidents of the United States in OTL:
37. Richard M. Nixon 1969-77 Republican
38. John Connally 1977-81 Republican

39. Robert F. Kennedy 1981-89 Democrat
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