DBWI: Reagan vs. RFK in 1976?

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As you all know, Vice President Connally was elected President of the United States against Mo Udall in 1976, but only after the assassination of Governor Ronald W. Reagan on May 26. After sweeping the primaries that night, Governor Reagan was shot to death. Connally had an advantage among delegates not bounded by the primaries and popular President Nixon's solid support, so while Reagan was leading, he may still have lost the nomination to Connally. As for Mo Udall, he became the frontrunner only after Senator Robert F. Kennedy dropped out of the race following the death of his son, Robert F. Kennedy Jr in a car accident. What if Kennedy did not drop out and Reagan was not assassinated? Who do you think would win in 1976?

OTL 1976:
John Connally / Charles H. Percy (Republican) 492 EV, 56.2%
Mo Udall / Henry M. Jackson (Democrat) 46EV, 42.6%
genusmap.php


Gallup poll in March 1976:
Kennedy 49%, Reagan 42%
Kennedy 41%, Connally 45%
Udall 42%, Reagan 44%
Udall 38%, Connally 50%

Gallup poll in May 1976:
Udall 45%, Reagan 45%
Udall 40%, Connally 51%

Given the last poll with both Reagan and Kennedy, despite President Nixon's popularity, Reagan would still have lost to Kennedy by wide margins, but who knows if Reagan could pull off an upset after the debates? In OTL, Connally refused to debate Udall, maybe Kennedy and Reagan would agree to be engaged in a debate?

If Kennedy won in 1976 in TTL, instead of in 1980, would he be facing a very tough time trying to run for re-election given the economic downturn? Would he have made the unpopular decision to crush the Islamic revolution in Iran by sending US troops like Connally did?

OTL 1980:
genusmap.php

Robert F. Kennedy / Lloyd Bentsen (Democrat) 403EV, 54.9%
John B. Connally / Charles Percy (Republican) 135EV, 43.8%

In OTL, RFK crushed Connally, even capturing Connally's home state of Texas by a razor-thin margin of 0.1%. He only lost Florida, Georgia, North Carolina by razor-thin margins to Connally. If Kennedy was President, could he possibly survive 1980? If Reagan was president, could he do worse than Connally in OTL?

Presidents of the United States in OTL:
37. Richard M. Nixon 1969-77 Republican
38. John Connally 1977-81 Republican

39. Robert F. Kennedy 1981-89 Democrat
 
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Former President Robert F. Kennedy has just died. He was 87. Having served as President from 1981 to 1989, he is now considered the first New Democrat, and is credited for the downfall of the Soviet Union.

However, it was widely speculated that RFK had considered running in 1968, after President Johnson dropped out of the race. Could he possibly win the Democratic nomination that year, with McCarthy and Humphrey in the race?

How would he do against Nixon in November? If he lost to Nixon, would he try to make a comeback in 1976 or 1980 just like, ironically, Nixon himself? Or would RFK be ruined by his defeat in 1968? I don't see him running in 1972 since he didn't in OTL - Nixon was unbeatable. Riding on the success of the Nixon presidency, Vice President Connally, who became VP after the plane clash of Vice President Bush would go on to defeat Mo Udall by a 56-42 margin in 1976.

(However, Reagan almost won the GOP nomination, before his assassination on June 5, 1976. RFK himself dropped out of the race, following the murder of RFK Jr, his son. Udall was leading Reagan 48-44 in late May, while Kennedy was leading Reagan 49-42 but trailing Connally 41-45 in March. Anyway, President Connally would be defeated by Kennedy by a 57-41 margin in 1980 in OTL:D)

If Kennedy won in 1968, would he really be able, or would he even try to push forward universal healthcare like Nixon did? How would his presidency be like? Does it mean Ronald Reagan in 1976 or 1980, and then perhapsthe end of the world:eek:Would he still be facing a powerful and troublematic Christian Left as in OTL, inspired by Martin Luther King Jr, who died of a heart attack in 1979?

Don't forget the 1980 presidential primaries in OTL, when James Bevel was at some point emerging as a surprisingly serious opponent, before his downfall due to a sex scandal, apparently leaked out by the Kennedy campaign. Unless King died early, he would still be leading a strong Christian Left movement throughout Kennedy's presidency.

OOC: No POD before 1968 allowed.


Your POD do not work: your chronology of '68 primaries is wrong...
RFK enter in the race against President LBJ, who want the nomination and retire only after RFK candidature and almost surely because RFK candidature because RFK was the only rival who can take away his nomination (Eugene McCarthy and the peace movement was not strong enough alone and HHH was LBJ's vice and enter in the race only after LBJ withdraw and tell him to run). You take away RFK's candidature and you take away also LBJ's withdraw and HHH's candidature...
But obviously if RFK do not enter in the race and thus LBJ do not drop it (and the two things are closely related), LBJ will win the nomination and likely lose against Nixon. But I do not see RFK waiting until 1980 for searching the Presidency, a candidature in 72 is more probable or if Nixon was seen too strong, 76 is the right year: Ted was younger and also had on his shoulder the heavy baggage of Chappaquiddick (and this last was the likely reason because he do not try OTL before 80)
 
Your POD do not work: your chronology of '68 primaries is wrong...
RFK enter in the race against President LBJ, who want the nomination and retire only after RFK candidature and almost surely because RFK candidature because RFK was the only rival who can take away his nomination (Eugene McCarthy and the peace movement was not strong enough alone and HHH was LBJ's vice and enter in the race only after LBJ withdraw and tell him to run). You take away RFK's candidature and you take away also LBJ's withdraw and HHH's candidature...
But obviously if RFK do not enter in the race and thus LBJ do not drop it (and the two things are closely related), LBJ will win the nomination and likely lose against Nixon. But I do not see RFK waiting until 1980 for searching the Presidency, a candidature in 72 is more probable or if Nixon was seen too strong, 76 is the right year: Ted was younger and also had on his shoulder the heavy baggage of Chappaquiddick (and this last was the likely reason because he do not try OTL before 80)
OOC: I've radically changed my scenario. Thanks for your reminder.
 
OOC: I've radically changed my scenario. Thanks for your reminder.

OCC:
Tony - This being the case, ask a Mod to lock this thread and start a new one w/your new scenario.

Additionally, here are a couple things to keep in mind about DBWIs - They work best when the thread starting what if does not involve many years of ATL history and when they are asking a question concerning an event that did occur in OTL (In this case, "DBWI: Former President RFK had been assassinated in 1968?").
 
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