DBWI: Reagan beats Carter in 1980

The election of 1980 was the most contentious since 1968. While he led by nearly 30 points early in the race, Carter's numbers started to go down and - for a time - it seemed like Reagan might win.

So, what if for whatever reason (a less successful Operation Eagle Claw would be a good PoD), Reagan beat Carter? Analysts say that the 80s marked a public disillusionment with decades-long New Deal policies, so I can easily see Reagan bringing in the Republican Revolution of 1984 four years early.

Would his first term go as poorly as Carter's second? Would his hawkish foreign policy bring an early end to the Cold War, or WWIII? One consequence I can see is that John Anderson's National Unity Party (if it still gets formed) would probably be consist more of moderate Republicans dissatisfied with Reagan than liberal Democrats fed up with Carter.
 
And that Albanian Civil War in the early 80s sometimes - as one of the few good sides of Reagan - might just have ended in favour of democracy, or? Now, we have a North Korea of Europe just beyond the Otranto Strait which constantly sabre-rattles against popular tourist destinations in Apulia.... that's to put it mildly, unfortunate for the economy of Italy!
 
I feel like Reagan would of been like Kemp economically wise. Finacally conservative but I read that Regan was to spend a lot on our milltary.
 
I feel like Reagan would of been like Kemp economically wise. Finacally conservative but I read that Regan was to spend a lot on our milltary.
Yeah, I was about to say the same thing. They seemed to be mostly the same policy-wise, though Kemp wasn't as conservative or hawkish as Reagan (but, then again, few were) and Reagan didn't care as much about social justice (but again, few Republicans did). However, there's no way that the Republicans could sweep through congress in 1980 like they did in 1984, so Reagan would have a much harder time getting his agenda through. Both were also growth-focused rather than balance budget-focused, so I can also see the national debt still being in an issue in the 90s (we might even see Ross Perot make an actual run for president).

Overall, though, I think Kemp was a much better influence on the GoP than Reagan would have been (IIRC, even Goldwater considered Reagan a radical).
 
Yeah, I was about to say the same thing. They seemed to be mostly the same policy-wise, though Kemp wasn't as conservative or hawkish as Reagan (but, then again, few were) and Reagan didn't care as much about social justice (but again, few Republicans did). However, there's no way that the Republicans could sweep through congress in 1980 like they did in 1984, so Reagan would have a much harder time getting his agenda through. Both were also growth-focused rather than balance budget-focused, so I can also see the national debt still being in an issue in the 90s (we might even see Ross Perot make an actual run for president).

Overall, though, I think Kemp was a much better influence on the GoP than Reagan would have been (IIRC, even Goldwater considered Reagan a radical).
Not bad for a football player
 
I question whether George Bush (Reagan's running mate in 80) would've been as good of a VP to Reagan as Mondale was to Carter and Howard Baker was to Kemp.
 
I question whether George Bush (Reagan's running mate in 80) would've been as good of a VP to Reagan as Mondale was to Carter and Howard Baker was to Kemp.
Bush was an Ambassador to China and the UN, so I think that his foreign policy expertise would be very valuable, so he might be a good Veep to Reagan.
 
What about Reagan's stance against the Soviet Union? Would it still collapse in 1994?

Earlier and without the disasterous series of Civil Wars across the former USSR IMVHO. Who knows, LA might still be there and not a radioactive crater where that stolen ex-Soviet warhead was set off. Ditto Minsk when the dieing USSR decided to use an SS-18 to kill off the main opposition leadership.
I think we'd also have gotten a decent arms reduction treaty under Reagan. He's often portrayed as some warmongering Hawk, but we now know from his diaries that he wanted to see an end to nuclear weapons. I doubt he have achieved that but something like cutting back on numbers of warheads, or maybe an agreement on battlefield and theatre weapons could have been achieved.

Most of the Soviet warheads said to be 'lost' were battlefield and theatre weapons, like the SS-20. During the collapse of the USSR many of them were beyond central control.

Carter's second term was a disaster. He pushed a hawkish agenda with all the fervour of a convert. Reagan would not have had to worry about the perennial accusation that DNC Presidents had to be concerned about - being accused of being soft on Comunism. Nixon went to China, Reagan could have gone to Moscow.
 
Bush was an Ambassador to China and the UN, so I think that his foreign policy expertise would be very valuable, so he might be a good Veep to Reagan.
True. Baker however, against all odds pulled off that upset election to the Presidency in 1992 (Kemp wasn't popular due to his harsh policies during the 1991 recession) against Dick Gephardt, while Bush had impressive foreign policy credentials, did he have the political skill to get elected to the Presidency in 1988 (or 84 if Reagan steps down after one term, he would've been 73 in 1984 after all, two years older than Baker was when he declined to seek re election in 1996)?
 
What about Reagan's stance against the Soviet Union? Would it still collapse in 1994?

Depends on whether Reagan would have been smart enough to switch to a policy of detente in 1987/88, in order to undermine the hardliners and allow Gorbachev to pursue glasnost and perestroika.

Not sure that would have been the case. The Gipper probably would have started WW3. Plus there's no way he would have signed an amnesty bill or busted up the Bell monopoly.
 
I never heard of Ross Perot. Is he some wacko like Lyndon LaRouche?
Not quite. He's a billionaire "activist" who was a major balanced budget supporter in the 90s. He considered running as president for a few times - most notably in 1992 and 2000 (probably as a Republican, but I could also see him going National Unity or a minor party since he was pretty independent and into political reform), but he settled on endorsing candidates like Bob Dole and Mitt Romney.

I question whether George Bush (Reagan's running mate in 80) would've been as good of a VP to Reagan as Mondale was to Carter and Howard Baker was to Kemp.
I've always though that Bush wasn't a very good choice of a running mate. I know for a fact that he was one of Reagan's last choices (after all, it's pretty awkward to run with the guy who calls your policies "voodoo economics"), but I guess he was good for party unity. Maybe he would help push Reagan to the center in the White House.
 
In either case, I think Kemp is overrated. He wasn't bad, but not great either. Carter,despite an overall bumpy second term, got the economy back on track by 1984, despite all the talks from right wingers about Kemp "inheriting a recession" and he also presided over the 1991 recession and left Baker with a weak recovery. It wasn't until around the time of Howard Dean's inauguration (Dean was the best President of the last 40 years IMHO, to bad VP Gore lost in 2004 to that hypocrite asshole Newt Gingrich) in '97 that the recovery really took off.
 
Though at least his son Jeb Bush became Vice President and is now President.

Wonder if he will live up to his words of "No New Taxes"
 
Though at least his son Jeb Bush became Vice President and is now President.

Wonder if he will live up to his words of "No New Taxes"
I was always shocked that 8 years after Gingrich got crushed by Russ Feingold over scandal and a faltering economy that his bland VP got elected President.
 
(The TL list of presidents and Vice Presidents)

1985-1993:Jack Kemp/Howard Baker

1993-1997:Howard Baker/Thomas Kean

1997-1999:Bill Richardson/Russ Feingold
(Richardson is assassinated)

1999-2001:Russ Feingold

2001-2005:Russ Feingold/Howard Dean

2005-2009:Howard Dean/Al Gore

2019-2017:Newt Gingrach/Jeb Bush

2017-Jeb Bush/Michael Flynn
 
(The TL list of presidents and Vice Presidents)

1985-1993:Jack Kemp/Howard Baker

1993-1997:Howard Baker/Thomas Kean

1997-1999:Bill Richardson/Russ Feingold
(Richardson is assassinated)

1999-2001:Russ Feingold

2001-2005:Russ Feingold/Howard Dean

2005-2009:Howard Dean/Al Gore

2019-2017:Newt Gingrach/Jeb Bush

2017-Jeb Bush/Michael Flynn
Ahem:

I was always shocked that 8 years after Gingrich got crushed by Russ Feingold over scandal and a faltering economy that his bland VP got elected President.

OTL Presidents are like this:

Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale (Democratic): 1977-1985

Jack Kemp/ Howard Baker (Republican): 1985-1993

Howard Baker/ Thomas Kean (Republican): 1993-1997

Howard Dean/ Al Gore (Democratic): 1997-2005

Newt Gingrich/ Jeb Bush (Republican): 2005-2009

Russ Feingold/ Mark Warner (Democratic): 2009-2017

Jeb Bush/ Michael Flynn Republican): 2017-?
 
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