DBWI: Prop 8 succeeded

As we all know, anti-gay groups got a measure on the ballot in California, known as Proposition 8, after the Supreme Court struck down the state's gay marriage ban. If the measure had succeeded, it would have enshrined a ban on gay marriage in the state's constitution. However, heavy turnout in the L.A. and San Francisco areas resulted in a narrow 52-48 loss. However, what would have happened if the proposition had passed?
 
Same-sex marriage would have been set back at least twenty years. If it couldn't succeed in California, then there'd be no chance of passing it in any other states. Even gay-rights organizations would have admitted the impossibility of moving ahead after such a setback, and would have switched to advocating for more modest goals, like employment non-discrimination laws and the repeal of DADT. It is generally acknowledged that this was the "make or break" moment in the history of SSM in the US.

Also, if Prop 8 had passed, the Mormon church would have been emboldened by the success, and would have become more heavily involved in politics.
 
I know it sounds off but if Senator Obama had won the Democratic nomination Prop 8 might have passed.

Although black and latino voters tend to be seen as liberal many are very conservative on issues like gay rights (largely due to the churches they attend).

If Obama is nominated we likely see an unusually large turnout in those communities and passage of Prop 8

(Note: This is actually what happened in OTL)
 
That Obama POD idea is delicious, if a little cynical. All the same, I don't think it would have lasted long. Schwarzenegger was pleased it didn't happen and there was always a big constitutional question mark over its head. It'd join that clean car act on the legislative scrapheap.
 
I know it sounds off but if Senator Obama had won the Democratic nomination Prop 8 might have passed.

Although black and latino voters tend to be seen as liberal many are very conservative on issues like gay rights (largely due to the churches they attend).

If Obama is nominated we likely see an unusually large turnout in those communities and passage of Prop 8

(Note: This is actually what happened in OTL)

Perhaps with black voters, sure. But Obama didn't have a lock on the Latino vote, and just because they're both minorities that vote Dem, doesn't mean they'll both experience increases in turnout.

Maybe if the No side they kept their initial campaign staff, it might have passed. Their original strategy was to ignore voters who weren't white, middle class and Anglophone. The new guys did do some serious campaigning in the black and Latino community. While they didn't carry them at all, they only needed a few percentage points in those communities to swing their way.
 
That Obama POD idea is delicious, if a little cynical. All the same, I don't think it would have lasted long. Schwarzenegger was pleased it didn't happen and there was always a big constitutional question mark over its head. It'd join that clean car act on the legislative scrapheap.

Eh, I could see it lasting at least a while. Court cases with all the appeals take years to resolve.
 
It would have been challenged in court and the conservative Supreme Court would have supported Prop 8 and handed down a decision that would have hurt the cause of same sex marriage.
 
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