alternatehistory.com

It's been 21 years since Colin Powell made the speech that torpedoed the planned "peace dividend" in the wake of the end of the Cold War and Operation Desert Storm.

In that speech, he went over the lessons of past wars, and pointed out how past drawdowns had left America unprepared for crises. In essence, his argument - from a purely military perspective - was to maintain forces at the planned levels of the Reagan build-up in the 1980s.

"In Korea, we had drawn down, and were not ready to face the crisis that emerged. We fought for three years, and lost nearly 37,000 men in what was ultimately a stalemate - and what amounts to a cease-fire. In Desert Storm, we were ready. The war lasted six weeks, and the coalition lost 248 killed in action as we accomplished our objectives. As a general, and as a parent, I know which war I would rather see America fight."

The response was quick. Bill Clinton, on the campaign trail, called for Powell's firing, and promised that on day one. It was arguably a fatal mistake. Not only did Clinton find himself being painted as someone who didn't respect the military (his actions reminded people of his efforts to avoid the draft in the Vietnam War and his involvement in some of the protests), but he was also taking on a well-respected African-American.

As a result, George H. W. Bush ended up winning the 1992 election by a slim margin. While some cuts occurred, they were nowhere near the level that some in Congress wanted.

That said, Powell's wisdom certainly was proven in the 1996 Taiwan crisis, as well as the 1994 Korean crisis. In both cases, the United States military strength was seen as a reason for the quick and peaceful resolution of those crises.

So, suppose Powell hadn't made that speech. What would have happened?
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