DBWI: Portuguese Decolonization

As we all know, Portugal was the only European country not to pull out of its colonies in the second half of the twentieth century. Instead, it managed to integrate them into a democratic, pluricontinental and multiracial federation that persists until today.

The Portuguese Federal Republic has now Africa's highest HDI, one of its largest economies, and is widely recognized as a regional great power.

If Portugal, for some reason (maybe a less visionary government) had ultimately been forced to decolonize just like everyone else, how would that have changed the world?

What would Portugal be like?

What would the new Portuguese-speaking nations of Africa be like?

Would Timor be Indoneasian?

Would Macau be Chinese?

What about the geopolitical implications?
 
As we all know, Portugal was the only European country not to pull out of its colonies in the second half of the twentieth century. Instead, it managed to integrate them into a democratic, pluricontinental and multiracial federation that persists until today.

The Portuguese Federal Republic has now Africa's highest HDI, one of its largest economies, and is widely recognized as a regional great power.

If Portugal, for some reason (maybe a less visionary government) had ultimately been forced to decolonize just like everyone else, how would that have changed the world?

What would Portugal be like?

What would the new Portuguese-speaking nations of Africa be like?

Would Timor be Indoneasian?

Would Macau be Chinese?

What about the geopolitical implications?


We wouldn't have such epic songs like Angola é nossa if that happened :(

 
We wouldn't have such epic songs like Angola é nossa if that happened

Ahahahah, yes, that song is epic indeed. I think it'd still exist ITTL, but it would certainly be looked at very diferently. Instead of being a symbol of national unity and the crushing of the infamous MPLA-UNITA rebelion (which happily most Angolans opposed because they could see that things were changing), it would be a symbol of a stubborn imperialist nation's last effort to preserve its opressive colonial empire.

I know that many people will probably call this scenario ASB because the theory of lusotropicalism is still very popular in Portugal. However, I'd argue that before General Norton de Matos' coup, which toppled the Estado Novo regime, restoring democracy in Portugal and bringing forth the massive changes in colonial policies which eventually led to the establishement of the federal system, Angola and Mozambique were not treated that differently from other European colonies in Africa. If Norton had failed, we could have seen hte continuation of colonial opression, which could only lead to a much larger uprising in the 70s. For how long do you think Portugal would have held on in that scenario?
 
Ahahahah, yes, that song is epic indeed. I think it'd still exist ITTL, but it would certainly be looked at very diferently. Instead of being a symbol of national unity and the crushing of the infamous MPLA-UNITA rebelion (which happily most Angolans opposed because they could see that things were changing), it would be a symbol of a stubborn imperialist nation's last effort to preserve its opressive colonial empire.

Another good thing that came from the MPLA defeat is that the Brasília-Lisbon-Lourenço Marques pact was signed and now Brazil and Portugal are prosperous trade and military friends, i got to visit Lisbon and it is such a beautifull city nowadays
 
Portugal wouldn't have the set the 'example' for South Africa, showing that European and African can live together in a western state. While Apartheid was of course slowly removed, until they finally allowed the first black member of the South African parliament Mandela.

It could also have a detrimental affect on Rhodesia, without Portugal crushing the MPLA-UNITA. This might have not given Rhodesia the breathing space to stabilize. Rhodesian forces crushing their own insurgency then forming much like Portugal a unitary state that although white dominated gave equal rights to its black population. Ironically South Africa the most internationally (at that time) accepted of the three countries was the most racist. Of course, by today legal Apartheid is gone, and while their making sure peace is maintained among the races they still have a massive wealth distribution problem.

I wonder how the modern Portuguese Integralist movement would be? Being based on multiracial Brazilian Integralism than old Salazarist Lusitanian Integralism they're actually very popular in Africa, which is more staunchly catholic.
 
What caused Macau to remain Portugese? Why didn't China (PRC, ROC, whatever form it takes) either threaten Portugal to return them, or take them back by force? Every Chinese government, short of those who want to lose popular legitimacy, or cannot do so, would be blasting Portugal on this issue.
 
Another good thing that came from the MPLA defeat is that the Brasília-Lisbon-Lourenço Marques pact was signed and now Brazil and Portugal are prosperous trade and military friends, i got to visit Lisbon and it is such a beautifull city nowadays

Yeah, investment by Brazillian companies definitly helped developing the Portuguese-African economy a lot, the trade pact is definitly a big part of why we're thriving so much now.

Portugal wouldn't have the set the 'example' for South Africa, showing that European and African can live together in a western state. While Apartheid was of course slowly removed, until they finally allowed the first black member of the South African parliament Mandela.

It could also have a detrimental affect on Rhodesia, without Portugal crushing the MPLA-UNITA. This might have not given Rhodesia the breathing space to stabilize. Rhodesian forces crushing their own insurgency then forming much like Portugal a unitary state that although white dominated gave equal rights to its black population. Ironically South Africa the most internationally (at that time) accepted of the three countries was the most racist. Of course, by today legal Apartheid is gone, and while their making sure peace is maintained among the races they still have a massive wealth distribution problem.

Yes, and both Rhodesia and South Africa would probably become way less prosperous than they got to be IOTL. In adition to being plagued by political instability, they wouldn't be part of the new "Sub-Saharan Economic Axis", which they form together with Portugal. This would also probably butterfly the formation of the African Union in the mid-1980s, which originally included only Portugal, Rhodesia and South Africa, but eventually came to include a multitude of other African countries. The AU has been fundamental to the development of poorer African countries, and without it life in places such as Botwana and Namibia wouldn't be half as good as it is.

What caused Macau to remain Portugese? Why didn't China (PRC, ROC, whatever form it takes) either threaten Portugal to return them, or take them back by force? Every Chinese government, short of those who want to lose popular legitimacy, or cannot do so, would be blasting Portugal on this issue.

This is actually a complex issue. For a very long time the chinese just ignored Macau because they understood it was in their best interest to have it remain in Portuguese hands, as a "bridge to the west", rather than becoming just another chinese city. Of course they eventually started pushing for a return, more or less at the same time as they started trying to get Hong Kong back from the British, but they weren't exactly in a hurry and that gave both Portugal and Britain a fair amount of time to work out a strategy.

Portugal had already been carrying out massive reforms in Macau since the early 1950s. Government-sponsored programs had greatly contributed to the development of the city's economy and it's citezins quality of life was also vastly improving. Macau had also been political autonomy and its own democratic institution, having become a state within the Portuguese Federal Republic.

Britain had also been inspired to follow Portugal's path and they made sgnificant reforms in Hong Kong as well. Throughout the 1980s and 90s, successive refferendums were carried out in both cities, and they all resulted with the vast majority of both populations choosing the status quo over chinese sovereignty. This helped confirming the international community's position at the side of the two european countries. It's because of this that Macau is still Portuguese and Hong Kong is still British, even though China claims both cities they would never dare to invade them as that would certainly warrant them a lot of hatred from the rest of world.

So, I guess another consequence of this POD would be handover of both Macau and Hong Kong sovereignties to China. I wonder how that would've played out.
 
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Hmm... This makes for an interesting point. In 1974, the Carnation Revolution occurred, and overthrew the authoritarian government. The consequences of this were democratization and decolonization. What conditions would need to be in place so that this wouldn't occur?

OOC:

Hum...I'm a bit confused right now. You realize this is a DBWI, right? In this timeline, the authoritarian government was overthrown somewhen in the forties or fifties (I haven't made the exact date clear) and that brought democracy but not decolonization.

Were you speaking out of character like I am now?
 
Surprisingly why Portugal is being called European here. Once read some old, likely racist stuff saying that 'Africa begins at the Pyrenees', but in this case it actually fits. Rekindling old relationships the Portuguese had with certain tribes in Angola certainly helped for seasonal labor, though I can't say much for how the government treated the contract workers when they got to Portgual, or how the Portuguese sent to Africa faired. Then again, the British, French, and Dutch were hardly innocent from shipping people over on bad work contracts, which still remains even in the United Arab Emirates, from Abu Dhabi to Kuwait. Anyways, I think the mixture of Spanish Republicans (the non-Stalinist majority, who apparently having some issues being sent back after Franco rented them to the Germans as forced labor) that joined in helped a little, Though the mixing of Brazilians, Timorese, Africans, and such was best displayed in Goa. Apparently the minor massacre there when the Hindu nationalist driven Indian Army and paramilitaries came in might have been either due to them looking like southern Indians, Christians, Muslims, or Africans. It was a confusing time, and part of why the Lusitanians, despite their varying opinions, didn't do much to complain when the Javanese of the United States of Indonesia cracked down on the Hindus of Bali.
 
OOC:

Hum...I'm a bit confused right now. You realize this is a DBWI, right? In this timeline, the authoritarian government was overthrown somewhen in the forties or fifties (I haven't made the exact date clear) and that brought democracy but not decolonization.

Were you speaking out of character like I am now?
*checks title*

Oh...

Whoops XD
 
Surprisingly why Portugal is being called European here. Once read some old, likely racist stuff saying that 'Africa begins at the Pyrenees', but in this case it actually fits.

Well, in many ways the portuguese people generally see themselves nowdays as being both, African and European, as well as Asian and Oceanic. It's true that most of our territory is located in the African continent and that around 60% of our population is of African ethnicity (OOC: I'm not sure if this figure is possible, the percentage would probably be much higher, but let's just go with it. I'm assuming massive settlement of Angola and Mozambique by not only Europeans but also mixed-raced cape verdeans, Brazillians of several ethnicities, indians, east asian etc. as well as a massive decrease of African fertility rates due to the improvement of living standards), but our capital is still Lisbon and we have much in common culturally with other european countries, though it's undeniable that the African side of our identity is becoming incresing prominent, which actually a good thing in my opinion.

Apparently the minor massacre there when the Hindu nationalist driven Indian Army and paramilitaries came in might have been either due to them looking like southern Indians, Christians, Muslims, or Africans.

Yeah, that massacre is actually still pretty fresh in the Goan people's mind and it's one of the main causes for the increasingly strong Anti-RoI feelings that have been burning in Portuguese India. In last year's election, the national-integralist Força Lusa, the most rightist of Portugal's major political parties, won a supermajority the the State of Indias Legislative assembly. Some people are getting really scared about them, that António Costa is pretty much starting to become the Portuguese Trump. And to think he once called himself a Socialist!

Força Lusa is also poised to takeover Macau's government in this years election, people there start to feel that the city's economy has become to much integrated with the PRC's and they're worried about the CCP increasingly trying to meddle in their affairs.

It was a confusing time, and part of why the Lusitanians, despite their varying opinions, didn't do much to complain when the Javanese of the United States of Indonesia cracked down on the Hindus of Bali.

Can't speak much for ethnic strife in Indonesia, but I hope that's getting better.
 
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