DBWI: Patria Grande and the former USA switch fates

[XFE]

So I found a map the other day where Gran Colombia and the former USA switched fates, in which the USA, instead of dissolving into her constituent states like OTL remained united; while Gran Colombia--or Patria Grande if you will dissolves into several Republics. How realistic is this scenario? I for one do not believe for a moment that the USA, of all nations could have a border on the Rio Grande.
And here's the map:

 

[Whiteshore]

A possible POD for the US not breaking up is the Articles of Confederation being replaced instead of modified as a relatively weak constitution led to the US breaking up with a "Republican Union" in the north and a series of Southron republics in the south after the Federalist government was overthrown after a war with France.

 

[Tito Andronicus]

I reckon it's possible - but the resultant USA certainly wouldn't be a global superpower on the scale of Gran Colombia. Instead, the various states of South and Central America would probably be similar to European nations in terms of development and influence, with several of them being significant world powers, whilst this USA would essentially be an impoverished coup-ridden 'corn republic' on a massive scale. There's simply no way that a centralised government would be able to hold all of the USA together - the only decent trade link in the entire place is the Mississippi - and any sort of decentralisation would just give power to local warlords and tycoons instead. (As for federalism, history's proven quite conclusively that that would be impossible.) I can see this USA as a source of cheap labour for Europe and South America, and as a battleground for influence in any global struggles, but nothing more.

 

[Whiteshore]

I reckon it's possible - but the resultant USA certainly wouldn't be a global superpower on the scale of Gran Colombia. Instead, the various states of South and Central America would probably be similar to European nations in terms of development and influence, with several of them being significant world powers, whilst this USA would essentially be an impoverished coup-ridden 'corn republic' on a massive scale. There's simply no way that a centralised government would be able to hold all of the USA together - the only decent trade link in the entire place is the Mississippi - and any sort of decentralisation would just give power to local warlords and tycoons instead. (As for federalism, history's proven quite conclusively that that would be impossible.) I can see this USA as a source of cheap labour for Europe and South America, and as a battleground for influence in any global struggles, but nothing more.

To be fair, the Republican Union of America is a fairly well-off place (if a nasty dictatorship under the Manifest Destiny Party).

 

[Tito Andronicus]

To be fair, the Republican Union of America is a fairly well-off place (if a nasty dictatorship under the Manifest Destiny Party).

For now. There'll be another revolution within the decade if they don't lift their laws on permanently detaining without trial anyone suspected of sedition, though - there's already been riots in a couple of the border cities.

 

[Whiteshore]

For now. There'll be another revolution within the decade if they don't lift their laws on permanently detaining without trial anyone suspected of sedition, though - there's already been riots in a couple of the border cities.

I could see some in the Manifest Destiny Party calling for the invasion of the Southron republics as a "great patriotic war", which is something the world powers would probably intervene against (with the French Empire and Gran Columbia announcing they will declare war on the Republican Union if that happens but the Russian Empire has close ties to the Republican Union).

 

[Tito Andronicus]

I could see some in the Manifest Destiny Party calling for the invasion of the Southron republics as a "great patriotic war", which is something the world powers would probably intervene against (with the French Empire and Gran Columbia announcing they will declare war on the Republican Union if that happens but the Russian Empire has close ties to the Republican Union).

Russia wouldn't dare do anything if France and GC are acting together - they've got quite enough to worry about with the anarchist movements in Sibir as it is, as well as the separatists in Volhynia and the Caucasus. This new Tsar (another Peter - can't they think of any better names?) talks aggressively, but the Duma simply don't want war at the moment.

 

[Whiteshore]

Russia wouldn't dare do anything if France and GC are acting together - they've got quite enough to worry about with the anarchist movements in Sibir as it is, as well as the separatists in Volhynia and the Caucasus. This new Tsar (another Peter - can't they think of any better names?) talks aggressively, but the Duma simply don't want war at the moment.

So, the Russians (and their nationalistic allies in Prussia, which is now a literal army with a country founded on being the shield of Russia against the French Empire and the Republic of Germany, along with North China (the rump Qing Empire)) would probably be complaining but doing little, right?

 

[Tito Andronicus]

So, the Russians (and their nationalistic allies in Prussia, which is now a literal army with a country founded on being the shield of Russia against the French Empire and the Republic of Germany, along with North China (the rump Qing Empire)) would probably be complaining but doing little, right?

Well, it's what they did when France intervened in Persia last year - they know there's nothing they can really do against a Franco-German alliance combined with GC and a load of other regional allies (the New Turkish Republic; Dravidia; Siam; Capeland; the list goes on). At the most, they'd start something in Central Asia or the Balkans again, as a way of trying to get some 'compensation'.

 

[Whiteshore]

Well, it's what they did when France intervened in Persia last year - they know there's nothing they can really do against a Franco-German alliance combined with GC and a load of other regional allies (the New Turkish Republic; Dravidia; Siam; Capeland; the list goes on). At the most, they'd start something in Central Asia or the Balkans again, as a way of trying to get some 'compensation'.

Or tensions between North/Qing China and South/Republican China might increase as well. Both Chinas are nuclear powers as well for good measure. Also, what do you think of the "League of Neutral States" which includes Bharat (OOC: Northern India+Bangladesh+most of Pakistan), the British, the Kingdom of Hungary (still ruled by the Hapsburgs), the Empire of Brazil, and the Egyptians (as the major powers)?

 

[Tito Andronicus]

Or tensions between North/Qing China and South/Republican China might increase as well. Both Chinas are nuclear powers as well for good measure. Also, what do you think of the "League of Neutral States" which includes Bharat (OOC: Northern India+Bangladesh+most of Pakistan), the British, the Kingdom of Hungary (still ruled by the Hapsburgs), the Empire of Brazil, and the Egyptians (as the major powers)?

Good point - China's still a huge flashpoint, even though the war party in the south seem to have been completely discredited at last. As for the League of Neutral States, it's a lovely idea, but they just don't have enough in common - the only thing uniting all of these states is dislike for France or GC and Russia at the same time. The minute anything breaks out, it would soon become clear that they've all got their own interests: Britain just wants Ireland and the Dominions back under her thumb; Bharat sort of want Dravidia but want to not fall apart even more; Hungary want to be treated as a real European power again; Brazil want GC to not exist in a convenient and stable way; and Egypt change their minds on what they want every election cycle.

 

[Whiteshore]

(another Peter - can't they think of any better names?)

To be fair, the French Empire's emperors have been called Napoleon the nth while it's two Empresses have been Napoleona I (r. 1924-1941) and Napoleona II (r. 2006-present day).

 

[Tito Andronicus]

To be fair, the French Empire's emperors have been called Napoleon the nth while it's two Empresses have been Napoleona I (r. 1924-1941) and Napoleona II (r. 2006-present day).

They haven't been doing it for as long, though - we've only got nine Napoleons (unless you count the interregnum during the French Succession Wars in the 1820s, but that just complicates things), and Russia are up to their fifteenth Peter by now. When this one dies, we'll hit eight Alexanders as well.

 

[acrsome]

Back to America- I kind of got a chuckle from that map. How in the hell does Alyaska get to be American??? Or even better- Puerto Rico?!? And look at how small the "Mexico" is! (At least I understand the origin of that name.) I feel like we somehow got screwed, there. (OOC: I'm in Colorado.) Over half of my fucking country is gone, and I just don't see how that could happen short of Space Bat intervention. It's like someone assumed that this America would just spread everywhere unopposed.

And which American nation is supposed to have grown into this continent-spanning state?

Granted, if the Articles of Federation (or whatever they were called) had created a strong central government they would have at least had a chance of staying united, but considering how fractious all of those little colonies were before the revolution I just have a hard time seeing it. The real point though is that this would have been something completely different from the various petty states that actually formed from the fragments.

But then there is still the problem of how a centralized America leads to dissolution of The Beautiful State, Gran Colombia. Again, I don't see how one follows from the other. What the hell happened to Bolivar? Did the federalists win and then go absolutely apeshit or something? I would think that even under a federalized system Gran Colombia would remain united. Maybe it wouldn't muster the united effort required to annex Peru, which in turn might put the brakes on the further admittedly smaller annexations, but Bolivar was pretty set on Jaen and Maynas at a minimum. (And after all, once the Peruvian government fell apart when the coup leaders started warring amongst themselves then Gran Columbia sort of had to step in, or leave the south of the country in anarchy.)

 

[RiverDelta]

I mean, the federalists were kind of assholes, they might have decided that the entire western hemisphere was their playground...but that would be stupid.