DBWI: Operation Barbarossa

As we all know, Hitler planned but never executed the invasion of the Soviet Union (Barbarossa). But what if he did rather than focusing on winning in the west? What would the allies have done? A liberation of France possibly? I suspect the troops stationed in France would become skeletal if the invasion occurred. How would Africa go? The Germans and Italians destroyed the allied forces in North/East Africa and the Middle East, would anything there change?
 
There should be a sticky thread for Barbarossa, to cut down on the threads that come up every month or two.

Barbarossa was a pipe dream, and attempting it would have lead to complete disaster for Germany. Here's a quick summary of the problems with it:

  • The Soviet Union had twice the population of all the Axis powers combined.
  • The Soviet Union had a higher GDP than Germany, and adding the Soviet economy to the Allies would have given the Allies a more than 2:1 production advantage over the Axis.
  • The German economy was dependent on imports from the Soviets for a lot of critical resources, most notably oil.
  • The Soviet military outnumbered the Axis by something like 3:2 in men, 4:1 in tanks, and 3:1 in combat aircraft. They had a qualitative advantage, too -- a Panzer III or IV would have been completely overmatched by a KV-1 or a T-34.
  • Even if we handwave away the Red Army to a skeleton force, the Soviet Union is far too large and heavily populated for Germany to effectively occupy while still fighting a war in the West.
  • The Axis victories in North Africa and the Middle East were won on an extreme logistical shoestring, requiring a huge effort from the Luftwaffe, not to mention outrageously risky operations to seize Malta, Crete, and the Suez by airborne and amphibious assaults. It was an outright miracle for the Axis that they managed to pull it off IOTL; ITTL, they'd have much less to work with since everything would be needed for Barbarossa, and the Allies would have access to Soviet supply and reinforcement through the Caucasus region.
If Germany tried Barbarossa, the war would be over by 1942 at the latest, and most of Europe would wind up dominated by the Soviets. If Germany shifts everything to the East to shore up their collapsing Soviet front, the western Allies might be able to liberate France, Spain, Norway, and Denmark before Stalin gets there, but that's a best-case scenario for the front lines of the Cold War.
 
Most importantly the British and the Americans don't spend the first three months of 1946 turning Germany into a radioactive wasteland. Maybe post-war Germany would be something other than the archetypal failed state. Or maybe not. Being fought over by invading armies can cause just as much in the way of destruction as a nuclear attack, it just takes longer.
 
Top