DBWI: No Russo-Japanese Exchange of 1891

Following the near-crisis that was the Otsu Incident, Japan and Russia negotiated a settlement that ultimately pleased both: Japan ceded Dalian and its sphere of influence in Manchuria that it had gained following its involvement in the Sino-French War and Russia ceded the territories then known as Sakhalin, the Kurils, Kamchatka, Alaska, and other lands east of the 150th Meridian to Japan.

What if the exchange hadn't occurred?
 
While it's true the RJE cooled tensions in the short-term, it looks at most the Sino-Japanese War of 1893 will be delayed just a bit. In Russia, weren't there riots over how one-sided the exchange was? Tensions will be higher ITTL, there may even be a separate Russo-Japanese War before the Great War. It does still look like the two will still find themselves on opposite sides of the Great War (maybe if you keep that twit Wilhelm II alive, Britain won't seek an alliance with Germany).

OOC: I'm guessing the POD is Russia keeping Alaska in 1867? If so, would Japan have even wanted it?
 
While it's true the RJE cooled tensions in the short-term, it looks at most the Sino-Japanese War of 1893 will be delayed just a bit. In Russia, weren't there riots over how one-sided the exchange was? Tensions will be higher ITTL, there may even be a separate Russo-Japanese War before the Great War. It does still look like the two will still find themselves on opposite sides of the Great War (maybe if you keep that twit Wilhelm II alive, Britain won't seek an alliance with Germany).

There was anger, but the exchange wasn't that one-sided when you account for how the agreement paved the war towards the Russian absorption of Manchuria. Alaska was indefensible and the other lands were mostly useless from the Russian perspective anyway. Japan meanwhile had now had to spend resources taming this new territory - a diplomatic coup for a Russian government concerned about Japan's growing influence in the region. Russian diplomats were legitimately shocked that people were angry that they handed over useless territory from incredibly valuable lands.

Ironically Japan didn't even get much out of the Great War. The Chinese reclaimed inner Manchuria and Formosa, absorbed Transbaikal, shifted their western border back to lake Balkash, and vassalized the states of French Indochina. Japan's absorption of outer Manchuria and Siberia east of the Lena-Aldan line is pretty minor in comparison.

OOC: I'm guessing the POD is Russia keeping Alaska in 1867? If so, would Japan have even wanted it?

Yup. Seward doesn't sell Alaska and thus Russia's a little more involved in the area. The Japanese decide to make friends with the French during the Sino-French War and end up getting Dalian and a pro-Japanese Korea (Gapsin Coup being successful) out of it.
 
Ironically Japan didn't even get much out of the Great War. The Chinese reclaimed inner Manchuria and Formosa, absorbed Transbaikal, shifted their western border back to lake Balkash, and vassalized the states of French Indochina. Japan's absorption of outer Manchuria and Siberia east of the Lena-Aldan line is pretty minor in comparison.
Yeah, Britain and Germany really could have done more to help Japan's attacks. Considering what China was able to do later, it almost seems a shame they didn't.
 
Ironically Japan didn't even get much out of the Great War. The Chinese reclaimed inner Manchuria and Formosa, absorbed Transbaikal, shifted their western border back to lake Balkash, and vassalized the states of French Indochina. Japan's absorption of outer Manchuria and Siberia east of the Lena-Aldan line is pretty minor in comparison.

I really don't think you have a solid case to treat "The Chinese" like they are one country, especially if you're going to list the gains in that order. The Hongxian Empire was the one who intervened in former Russia and Manchuria, The Constitutional Protection Movement (Later Republic of Yangzi) retook Taipa, and the Canton Council/Clique organized the intervention in Indochina after the French civil war kicked off.
 
I really don't think you have a solid case to treat "The Chinese" like they are one country, especially if you're going to list the gains in that order. The Hongxian Empire was the one who intervened in former Russia and Manchuria, The Constitutional Protection Movement (Later Republic of Yangzi) retook Taipa, and the Canton Council/Clique organized the intervention in Indochina after the French civil war kicked off.

Considering the Hongxian Empire later absorbed the CPM as an autonomous province, the transfer of Taipei from Japan to the CPM was negotiated by the Hongxian Empire in exchange for said autonomy, and the Canton Clique pledged fealty to the Hongxian Empire even though it was autonomous, I don't think it's wild to refer to the Chinese states as The Chinese. Plus the Hongxian Empire was already widely recognized as the most legitimate Chinese government given how it controlled North China, Inner Mongolia, the Sichuan Basin, Yunan, Tibet, and Sinkiang - ergo the bulk of the country's territory and population - by the time the war started.
 
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