I think that Bush would have won re-election. The rise of an anti-estlishment canadite provoked an even deeper hostility towards Washington DC and the Beltway Establishment, which Bush was a part of. It's a shame that Jerry Brown wound up getting the Presidenency. He blew a whole in the budget, vacilated on the world stage just when the world needed America to secure the post-Cold War peace, and tore apart NAFTA like it was confetti.
I don't think the United Kingdom wouldn't have collapsed like it did. Wales and Scotland wouldn't be independent, and Northern Ireland would have never unified with the Republic of Ireland.I suppose there'd be no Freedom Party, so America stays with a two-party system. This might be better in some ways- I think with two parties able to form straightforward compromises, there'd be a lot less gridlock.
I do wonder how Britain would be affected. Major's terrible relations with Perot were a big reason for the Tory split which brought him down in '95. OTOH he was pretty much dead in the water from 1993, so it'll probably just be a stay of execution.
I think that Bush would have won re-election. The rise of an anti-estlishment canadite provoked an even deeper hostility towards Washington DC and the Beltway Establishment, which Bush was a part of.