DBWI: No President Wallace

George Wallace's 1976 victory was a pivotal moment in United States politics. It took an odd culmination of events for it to happen.

The Republicans that year were split between President Rockefeller's Independent Liberal bid and Governor Ronald Reagan's Conservative Republican candidacy.

Wallace meanwhile, after having gotten 22% with George Chandler in 1968 and coming second in the electoral college that year, proceeding to come second in the electoral college in 1972 (though he only won two states...), having won the Democratic primary plurality after having been shot and nearly-paralyzed in 1972, and winning the primary in 1976 due to a combination of a split opposition, no southern opponent, and expanding his base of southern whites and northern hardhats to include law and order ethnics following his alliance with Philadelphia Mayor Frank Rizzo. It was a nightmarish moment for liberals and forward-looking folks within and outside the Democratic party, although President Rockefeller thought it would play to his advantage.


Maybe if Gerald Ford hadn't been assassinated we'd have avoided the Republican Party split in 1976. Even if Reagan had beat him, I don't think Ford would have had the Chutzpah to try an independent run (not to mention he lacked the personal animosity with the new GOP leadership).

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Of course without a President Wallace we wouldn't have seen the Unholy Alliance in 1980 of Reagan running again with Haig of all people to say nothing of Evan Mecham's quixotic independent bid, which ended up making even the visibly older, and still paralyzed, George Wallace a viable option the second time around. What an ugly campaign that was! Weicker, Rockefeller, Mecham, Anderson, all challenging Reagan from left and right alike, then Mecham splitting off for his own bid! Wallace himself challenged from the left by Kennedy, by Moonbeam, by Bayh, and then by Kennedy and Bayh aligned (and we narrowly skirted their independent run when Wallace took Moonbeam as his running mate). And then the campaign itself: Wallace speaking with fire and fury but otherwise barely campaigning at all. Reagan as charming as ever, dragged down by Haig who alternated between calm coolness and the most singularly strange statements - which Reagan then had to defend. Mecham redefining the bounds of what it was okay to say - and then, with the election over, the inevitable result of redefining what it isn't okay to say. That's one political career that died young, thankfully.

Not three years later, of course, Wallace resigned and we had Jerry in office. Not that he was able to do much, and he was defeated for the nomination later on, but 1984 is a whole 'nother fascinating kettle of ballgames... I'm glad, personally, that we saw a relatively normal campaign in 1992, after so much chaos. The 80s really were something else - chaotic, messy campaigns; independent bids; strange alliances; and completely redefining how far left and how far right you could talk, and still get elected, still be considered seriously, still see your ideas influence the mainstream, in America.
 
The country certainly lucked out when Wallace retired in 1983 due to ailing health.

Brown basically pulled the Reagan card in 1992 - the Californian who was the most left and right man in the field at the same time. Jerry Brown and Lloyd Bentsen made for a strong ticket that was tough to beat considering how they started off with California and Texas in the bag. It also didn't hurt that the GOP base clutched the idiot ball when Buchanan won the primary...

He made conservatives happy by abolishing the Department of Education (which also pleased some liberals), putting in place a flat tax, and putting in place a VAT - all while reducing corporate and personal tax rates. He made liberals happy with his social reforms, particularly on policing and drug policy, as well as the Medicaid expansion he put forward. He made both sides happy by introducing means-tested entitlements. His establishment of the "trifecta" in making the outgoing President George HW Bush Secretary of State was a move broadly respected by all.


The ironic thing about the Wallace administration is how it became apparent how cynical he was about race in politics. He certainly wasn't a liberal, but he wasn't the man who stood at the University of Alabama door. I don't think anything he did in his first term would have been all that different from law and order conservatives or Secretary of State Scoop Jackson had he won (which isn't to say that we couldn't have done better...).

Vice-President Rizzo being granted his appointment to Italian Ambassador as a going-away President in the second term proved to be a bad decision in the long run given how he managed to use it as a platform to seize the nomination in 1984...
 
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Just watched interview of former President Zell Miller, and his sayings on SOuthern politics, He does a great job in my view of explaining how the Dems kept power in the region, even with the Conservative overtures. He puts most of it down to Wallace, but he also says the definite Social liberal tilt of Barry Goldwater Jr. in 1996 is what seald the deal.
 
Just watched interview of former President Zell Miller, and his sayings on SOuthern politics, He does a great job in my view of explaining how the Dems kept power in the region, even with the Conservative overtures. He puts most of it down to Wallace, but he also says the definite Social liberal tilt of Barry Goldwater Jr. in 1996 is what seald the deal.

Miller and Lipinski's 2000 win was a pivotal moment in locking in the White South - Hardhat - Catholic coalition that comprises the Democratic Party today. Miller's progressivism on poverty programs and expanding education opportunities for the poor also helped expand the coalition as the campaign and administration messaged hard to the urban poor.

The GOP meanwhile went even further in the opposite direction with Senator Weld's win in 2008 after having been Governor of Massachusetts and Senator from New York.
 
Considering that Weld is only moderately charismatic at best, his come-round-from-the-back victory in the primaries is still impressive - especially when you consider the opposition he faced...
 
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