DBWI: No Lithuanian unification?

After the victorious Battle of Saule in 1236, the Lithuanians managed to start a cascade of revolts that ended in the ejection of the Livonian Brothers of the Sword. From that point on, unification of the various Baltic tribes under the Lithuanians was inevitable.

But what if the Battle of Saule had been lost by the Lithuanians, or if the Livonian Knights had received assistance from the Holy Roman Empire? Would the Lithuanian Unification have been butterflied away entirely, or would it have just excluded the Latgalians? (OOC: I have no idea if that last sentence is grammatically correct.)

And what would've this meant for the Lithuanians? With reduced territory and manpower, would they have been able to keep their religion in the long run?


(OOC: Modern day "Lithuania" reaches from River Vistula to River Gauja)
 
I'm not certain, but I think that if Lithuania had a smaller power base, they would have had to convert to Christianity in order to counter that. Though if they go Orthodox they could form an alliance with Novgorod or something against the Livonian Order in order to regain the lost Baltic lands.
 
If the Lithuanians aren't pretty damn powerful, they open themselves up to attack by any neighboring Christian power. They'd have to convert or die. I can see the Poles or Novgorodians taking advantage of the Lithuanian weakness to conquer them. Some rump, Christianized Lithuania will probably remain as a buffer, but not much more. Maybe we could see Poland becoming a major European power without Lithuania as a check.
 
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