DBWI: No Japanese occupation of North Korea

[Deleted member 109224]

One of the weirdest things to happen in the 20th Century was the Japanese Occupation of North Korea. Some refer to it as the recolonization or the reconquest.

From 1977 to 1983, North Korea was abducting what amounted to hundreds of Japanese Civilians and a few dozen Europeans. For many years, the Japanese Government just assumed that it was a conspiracy theory that the North Koreans were abducting their citizens. After all, what would even be the point of such a thing?

During the mid-90s famine, Japan along with many other countries sent aid to North Korea. The North Korean responded with appreciation and decided to apologize for abducting Japanese citizens. The entire country of Japan proceeded to collectively go "NANI!?" (WHAT!?). Japan proceeded to invade and occupy the country, and has remained there ever since - governing through the "Prosperous Japanese-Korean Transitional Authority" whose transition has been slow to say the least.

It is obviously a big issue in international politics that arises much controversy.



What if Japan had been freaked out but hadn't gone to war over this?

 

[Thon Taddeo]

Japanese relations with China and South Korea would probably be much better.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

The US geopolitical position in East Asia would be less awkward.

 

[Pelranius]

Japan wouldn't be in the middle of a twenty five (and counting) year war, sinking in the equivalent of several hundred billion USD a year and tens of thousands of lives.

In other words, Japan would then be a place people would actually want to live in.

 

[Psmith]

So, Japan was widely considered an incipient great power in the 1990s, even as it's economy began to falter after the asset bubble burst, simply due to its undeniably huge export industry, edge in electronics, and increasing soft power through their capacity to define the new consumer electronics market, and the popularity of anime and manga in the West, which among other things left few in doubt that they'd recover eventually.

Then it went and invaded a third-world country in the middle of a famine, which it had ruthlessly ruled as a colony up until 50 years earlier.

Bad move.

Japan's ostracism from the international community as a result of the North Korean War led to a decade of socio-political-economic turmoil before the National Unity Alliance took over and restored the ultranationalists to preeminence in that country. Half a century of progress was just wiped out and we hear a lot about the 3 Lost Decades in which Japan might have become a superpower if it had tried to reconcile to the West by relinquishing control of North Korea (and, more recently, its nuclear weapons).

So, how to go about avoiding it? Butterfly President Perot for a start, then you might get a more assertive America that could make Tokyo think twice before committing suicide (or "seppuku" as I believe they call it over there). If Perot doesn't run and Bush wins in 1992, he would follow the Kuwait Protocol that was enshrined by his son IOTL and that could pretty quickly spook Tokyo out.

If North Korea doesn't get occupied in 1994, then Japan probably goes on to become a world power after all, with its people enjoying a much higher quality of life thanks to access to the international markets and all the perks of being a big dog in those markets. I expect the Japanese space programme goes beyond sending a couple of probes to burn out in Lunar orbit, and might even join America, the EC and Pakistan in accomplishing a manned lunar landing (though it's unlikely to get to the red planet before Mars Direct). Also, anime hopefully stays a medium of entertainment, rather than a vessel for government propaganda and a line of support support for the "Pop-Right" movements in Europe and America (ITTL we aren't tortured by those anime-styled political broadcasts for the BNP, or have to suffer Nick Griffin's bump in the polls each time he whines about our "missed trade opportunities with Japan" ).

As for Korea? Well from his exile in Leningrad, Kim Jong Il's been more than vocal about his plans for reconciliation with the South and a "new democratic settlement in Korea" had the Japanese given him half a chance. However, whether or not that settlement would be closer to something along the lines of the Yugoslav Confederation, or the...ahem..."democratic revival" in the Russian Soviet Republic is anyone'a guess. I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt, though, if anything because he signed my copy of "A Retrospective on Juche" for free.

OOC: I'd expect that people are undeservedly lenient to North Korea and the Kims ITTL considering how they went out.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

What would Japan's demographics look like without all the war brides?

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Japan has effectively become the RSR's New East Germany. Nobody else wants to sell them technology or added-value goods. It's a lucrative relationship for both sides and a headache for the United States. Japan meanwhile gets oil at dirt-cheap prices (granted, in Karafuto they're the ones drilling it) and Russia uses Japan to sell its oil to international markets.

US-Japanese relations have been testy since the closing of all bases in Japan. Now there are 110,000 US troops in South Korea... sitting between two countries that don't like the United States and don't like each other. Plus there are all those extra troops we keep in the Marianas now.

Pakistan's manned lunar landing was a product of the country deciding to take all the money it was spending on nukes to threaten the Indians and instead funneling it towards space programs so they could one-up the Indians. If Japan had put the money it put into nuclear weapons into space tech instead, they'd probably have been able to go to the moon.

What would Japan's demographics look like without all the war brides?

There was talk of the emergence of a culture of young men who stayed home and didn't get married emerging before beginning of the North Korean Occupation. Now young men come back from North Korea all juiced up on nationalistic propaganda and confident in themselves, often either with girlfriends and brides or eager to find one at home. I could see the Japanese populating stagnating.

Japan wouldn't be in the middle of a twenty five (and counting) year war, sinking in the equivalent of several hundred billion USD a year and tens of thousands of lives.

In other words, Japan would then be a place people would actually want to live in.

The Japanese death toll since 1994 has been about 4,400 people, though another 12,000 Japanese-aligned North Korean soldiers have died in that time as well. It's a big number, but year over year somewhat small in a nation of 140 million. 168 million if you include North Korea.

Most of the funding for the war comes out of taxes paid by companies that have offshored production to North Korea and the revenues from Russian oil, but it definitely hits the average household in the wallet.

But it also sort of depends on how you calculate growth. GDP Per Capita has stagnated, GDP as a whole only seems to keep pace with inflation and population growth, but costs of manufactured goods, energy, and food have declined so it's sort of a wash.

If you include North Korea as part of the Japanese economy, there's been a lot of growth. All of Japan's offshoring of low-cost manufacturing production is there now.

 

[overoceans]

OOC: How does Japan manage to invade the DPRK in this scenario? I think it would have to be entirely a sea and air operation, unless they somehow managed to convince South Korea to let their troops go north on land.

 

[Pelranius]

The Japanese death toll since 1994 has been about 4,400 people, though another 12,000 Japanese-aligned North Korean soldiers have died in that time as well. It's a big number, but year over year somewhat small in a nation of 140 million. 168 million if you include North Korea.

Well, that 4,400 only includes actual JSDF members. Japanese "private security" paramilitaries have been doing the brunt of the fighting with various Korean guerrillas (Seoul sponsored or not), and taking horrific casualties, thanks to Japanese corporate cheapness in that regards. They tried recruiting foreigners for that, but the UN put a stop to that

Most of the funding for the war comes out of taxes paid by companies that have offshored production to North Korea and the revenues from Russian oil, but it definitely hits the average household in the wallet.

But it also sort of depends on how you calculate growth. GDP Per Capita has stagnated, GDP as a whole only seems to keep pace with inflation and population growth, but costs of manufactured goods, energy, and food have declined so it's sort of a wash.

If you include North Korea as part of the Japanese economy, there's been a lot of growth. All of Japan's offshoring of low-cost manufacturing production is there now.

Japan offshoring all that labor intensive manufacturing to North Korea has caused the economic collapse of the Japanese working class. After all, the New Red Army didn't emerge from a vacuum five years ago.

 

[Changundramon]

Without the discovery of North Korean kidnappings of Japanese citizens, Shintaro Ishihara would have remained a kooky fringe politician, at most. He grasped the chance to get to power, though. Now, Japan is militarist, but struggles with a growing popularity of Communism among the wrecked middle class.

 

[Dolan]

OOC: How does Japan manage to invade the DPRK in this scenario? I think it would have to be entirely a sea and air operation, unless they somehow managed to convince South Korea to let their troops go north on land.

OOC: They got Nanotech MCV from reality Jumping Prince Tatsu.

...

Oh wait this isnt Fandom.

Maybe Nazi Germany scheme as in having maintained Officer Cadres, conscription, and rotation program? Also those Industrial Robots could be suddenly fitted with guns and missiles, turning Japanese Army into some sort of Mecha-Army by necessity?

 

[Sigfried]

I mean Japan is insane state with fucking Robot Walkers with Lasers I fail to see how country like that could be sane.

When they got nuked in WWII you planted seed for insanity.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

I mean Japan is insane state with fucking Robot Walkers with Lasers I fail to see how country like that could be sane.

When they got nuked in WWII you planted seed for insanity.

The robot walkers are freaky and it's weird to see them patrolling the streets. They aren't all that practical though - it's the hummingbird drones that do most of the surveillance. The walkers are mostly a propaganda/intimidation thing I think.

The country is a leader in robotics though. Because of the long lifespans (note to self, eat more fish and seaweed for good health) they've had to innovate there, despite the recent youth bulge. They'd rather have young people working instead of caring for the elderly. Increasing the retirement age and generally trying to keep the elderly working has also been a big national goal. Power robotic exoskeletons have started to be issued so the elderly can keep working.

The recent spike in visas issued for Thai and Filipino nurses has also been noteworthy, as has been Japan's cutting deals with Cuba to have Cuban doctors come to Japan. There are some 10,000 Cuban doctors in Japan now I think, and the Cuban government is making plenty of $$$ from this.


The country isn't all that innovative when it comes to energy and medical innovation though. I think it's because they put so much national funding into robotics and computing. Plus they often just copy or steal foreign energy and medical IP, which is its own big diplomatic issue. Even though in domestic politics we mostly hear about Chinese IP theft, that Japanese are by far the biggest IP thieves. The difference is that we don't trade much with Japan so we don't hear about it that much.

Without the discovery of North Korean kidnappings of Japanese citizens, Shintaro Ishihara would have remained a kooky fringe politician, at most. He grasped the chance to get to power, though. Now, Japan is militarist, but struggles with a growing popularity of Communism among the wrecked middle class.

Eh, support for communism shouldn't be conflated with support the JCP. The government isn't suppressing it because of the tight relationship with Russia and Cuba, but the people most inclined to be actual communists are some university professors and middle class men who live at home because they couldn't cut it in the military or find a girlfriend. The JCP gets about 8 or 9 percent each election, but that's mostly protest votes by people who don't like the dominant militarist and nationalist culture (and the JCP being the only opposition party that the government doesn't screw with).

 

[Nivek]

The difference is that we don't trade much with Japan so we don't hear about it that much.

Maybe not USA and Europe, but South America(Cuba as mentioned, Venezuela for oil,etc) is a big trade even if pressure is keeping 'hidden' or low.

That is not my Continent but i hate the double standard, imagine if mexicans or cubans have been kidnapping USA citizen? no one, not even UN would critize the USA.

Still wonder if that will affect japan pop culture exports too, Japanese Cartoons were ultra popular in latin america before the formal sanctions and used to be very wide open on TV and now illegal stream(but very pro nationalist)

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Maybe not USA and Europe, but South America(Cuba as mentioned, Venezuela for oil,etc) is a big trade even if pressure is keeping 'hidden' or low.

Eh, even Japanese products coming to the US by way of Latin America aren't that big in the US. Remember that if you discount energy, only 6-8% of US GDP is trade-dependent.

Plus we can't forget about Peru, where President Keiko Fujimori has recently reopened ties between the countries. Bolsonaro in Brazil has also started to open the country's relations up with Japan - it doesn't hurt that there's a sizable Japanese population in Brazil that Japan has engaged to lobby in its interests.

Venezuela is a weird case. The Venezuelans drove out most foreign oil companies and gutted their own oil company PDVSA of talent. In desperation, they proceed to invite Japan in. Between its operations in Karafuto and Venezuela, JOGMEC has probably become an oil company of comparable quality to the Supermajors. Now there are rumors that JOGMEC might acquire PDVSA outright...

Japan legalizing non-processed coca leaves also won it favor with Bolivia and with Peruvian indigenous groups. Coca Tea, Inca Kola, Pisco sours, Ceviche, and Chaufa have become very popular in Japan in recent years.

Latin American ties recently hurt Japan's government when it came out that Odebrecht was paying off some of the country's officials.

That is not my Continent but i hate the double standard, imagine if mexicans or cubans have been kidnapping USA citizen? no one, not even UN would critize the USA.

Still wonder if that will affect japan pop culture exports too, Japanese Cartoons were ultra popular in latin america before the formal sanctions and used to be very wide open on TV and now illegal stream(but very pro nationalist)

I don't think anybody questions Japan's having been PO'd over what North Korea did. The question is, is a 25 year long occupation proportional?

 

[skarosianlifeform]

Well, initially Japan just planned to create a new, healthier government in NK. But remnants of the Juche Army (with massive support from China and South Korea) carried a large guerilla campaign. It hampered all Japanese efforts, and also meant that if Japan pulled out, the old government would be back. And would again be a threat to Japan (with help from Seoul and Beijing).

Not to mention, Chinese sabre rattling against Japan.
At least, with NK as a giant airbase, Japan can threaten China with mutual destruction efficiency (with their chemical weapons), countering China's nuclear advantage.

Japan was basically forced into this position by the actions of Korea (both of them) and China.

 

[BagOfGroceries]

Well, initially Japan just planned to create a new, healthier government in NK. But remnants of the Juche Army (with massive support from China and South Korea) carried a large guerilla campaign. It hampered all Japanese efforts, and also meant that if Japan pulled out, the old government would be back. And would again be a threat to Japan (with help from Seoul and Beijing).

Not to mention, Chinese sabre rattling against Japan.
At least, with NK as a giant airbase, Japan can threaten China with mutual destruction efficiency (with their chemical weapons), countering China's nuclear advantage.

Japan was basically forced into this position by the actions of Korea (both of them) and China.

TL;DR, Japan had no choice.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

The USA and Europe refusing to support Japan, and even enacting embargo measures, didn't help either.

If the West had supported Japan, then China and South Korea would have been forced to back off ; NK guerillas would have been stamped faster ; and last but not least, Japan would have had more money... and been able to turn North Korea into a modern and healthy country, which would have been Japan's (and West's) partner.

Instead, Japan got screwed over by its supposed allies, and as a result, did a crappy job in North Korea.

 

[Nivek]

The USA and Europe refusing to support Japan, and even enacting embargo measures, didn't help either.

If the West had supported Japan, then China and South Korea would have been forced to back off ; NK guerillas would have been stamped faster ; and last but not least, Japan would have had more money... and been able to turn North Korea into a modern and healthy country, which would have been Japan's (and West's) partner.

Instead, Japan got screwed over by its supposed allies, and as a result, did a crappy job in North Korea.

In few words, japan might have been more diplomatic but at times.....yeah that was a mess.There a reason Why Peru almost got a hostage situation in japanese own embassy did got defuse violently....

apanese "private security" paramilitaries have been doing the brunt of the fighting with various Korean guerrillas

Hiring Colombian Experts even.

Venezuela is a weird case

PDVSA is a state owned company but yeah Japan did own their own tanker and refineries and just pay royalties on it and get it very cheap too.

There a big reason why japanese become the doing business language in south america, Adopting Japanese HD FTA TV did make wonder for eletronics exports in both side

 

[skarosianlifeform]

Do you think the LAPA (Latin America and Pacific Alliance) will be a success ?

It arose from the growing ties between Japan and Latin America, but soon grew to encompass Taiwan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Filipinos and Malaya, which were all
tired of being pushed around by China, and thrown under the bus by the USA.

Washington might have protested against Chinese aggression on Asian mainland, but never enacted sanctions on China nor supported Japan (or its allies) seriously. Only Japan, among the great powers, stood up to China.
Latin American countries, on the other hand, were tired of being pushed around by the USA.

So, I think it's a match made in heaven, but I fear that managing such a large bloc of diverse countries (in religion, culture, political systems...) might be too hard on the long run.