DBWI: No Hostage Delay Scandal

When the Hostage Delay Scandal broke during Reagan’s first term, it ended up consuming most of his presidency and public attention, ultimately leading to Mondale’s victory in 84.

If the Hostage Delay Scandal never broke, what would Reagan’s presidency have looked like?
 
You got to remember that even before the scandal broke, let alone the clusterfuck that was his near-aquittal in the Senate, Reagan was still a pretty devisive figure, even in his own party (see GHWB's 'voodoo economics' remark during the 1980 primaries). The policies he was proposing in the weeks before the tapes leaked looked similar to those of the Wilson administration (cut funding, cut taxes, raise military spending), and whilst he did achieve a few short term successes, it was the failed economic recovery, let alone the scandal, that wrecked the Republicans in Congress throughout the '80s.

It's hard to see Reagan getting the country to rally around him; the failed economic recovery, as well as his age and onsetting alzheimer's would hurt him, regardless of the hostage delay being kept hidden. Really, the best I could see him doing is wading through the early-80s with a minor economic recovery before winning by a bare majority in '84.

Anything more 'positive' than that would be beyond Reagan's capabilities.
 
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Reagan seemed to have paved a new way for the Republicans. Beforehand, alot of people liked him for his charisma and charm though looking back, it's actually kinda worrisome. He wasn't that bad a guy, but his adminsitration had alot of scoundrels and most people didnt want to talk about it or acknowledge his faults because he seemed "so honest and odnw to earth." He put on the persona of a kindly grandfather and alot of conservatives ate it up.

Course, that all came to an end once everything came out and such.

Mondale's tax increases would've been seen as controversial if not for the disasterous economic effects of Reagan's "voodoo economics," plus alot of people got some schadenfreude seeing the millionaires and such get take down a peg. Heck, Mondale rode that rebound wave to get universal healthcare passed and I don't know if we would've gotten elsewhere. The "nuclear freeze" was a concern, though that stopped being the case when Mondale predicted the USSR would collapse if they kept putting most of their wleath in the military field, which was provden to be right back in 1991 (which definitely helped boost the chances for Dems winning that year.)
 
Well, you have to remember that what happened was essentially a perfect storm of bad luck. Reagan's gambit was exposed - which honestly he probably gets away with 99 out of 100 times back then, it wasn't the internet age or anything. Not only that, it explodes into a bigger and bigger scandal constantly, consuming his presidency when in a lot of cases, it would've died off in time. Reagan was a charismatic president who really had a way with words, but somehow he never found the right words to deal with that particular crisis. Rather astonishing when you study him beyond that one scandal, as it's like he was a different person dealing with it. Let alone the fact that the public and press just wouldn't let go of it, even when other stories broke. Simply stunning, really. Maybe God voted Democrat in '80 and wasn't happy with the outcome, I don't know, since it sure seemed like the 80s were set to be a Republican decade.

I honestly think Reagan would've been a solid president, probably a two termer with the incumbency advantage. He was a swing to the right, but the conditions were there to recover from the 70s regardless of what you think about his economic policies. He would've taken a hard line with the Soviets for sure, probably accelerating the decline of the Sovs and leading to an earlier collapse than '91. Domestically, he might've handled the AIDS crisis better than Mondale, maybe not. That one's tough to say since it sort of surprised everyone. No universal healthcare I imagine and probably economic and regulatory looseness instead. More than anything else, I would expect him to do all of that and do well with his excellent communication skills, which would paper over a lot of flaws.
 
If not that scandal something else would have weakened him. Probably not as much but hard to envision him as a 2 term president
 
In all fairness all the scoundrels in the Reagan Administration ended up back in the White House under Pete Wilson.

Who know, maybe if Reagan had gotten a second term those guys like Ollie North would have gotten discredited earlier.
 
How Reagan would have handled the AIDS crisis is an interesting proposition. Although President Mondale was never particularly enthusiastic about LGBT issues, he did sponsor a gay rights bill in '82 and he did criticize Reagan's position on gay rights during Reagan's term. Also, there was that question about gay marriage during the second televised debate. Neither candidate supported it, but Reagan clearly took the stronger position in opposing it, saying he would endorse legislation to ban it, while Mondale's answer was suitably diplomatic and quite terse.

Mondale did, at least, speak about AIDS shortly after his inauguration and he mentioned it at least in passing in every State of the Union address. It was clearly not a priority to him, and organizations like ACT-UP protested fiercely against Mondale's handling of the crisis. Research grants were half of what the CDC proposed in a 1984 position paper, although some might argue that Reagan would have allocated even less money to AIDS research. Mondale also managed to reduce the spread of AIDS by contaminated needles, by getting the House Dems to place a rider on a HUD bill giving funding for needle exchanges in inner cities. That was a hard pill to swallow for many Americans, and I agree Mondale never would have done that in an election year, even if the UK legalized needle exchanges well before the US and noted few ill effects.

So, although Mondale's position on AIDS incited ACT-UP and other lobby groups to many of their so-called "die-ins" and protests, we can at least say he did something. He probably did more than Reagan would have.
 
The recently declassified CIA documents talked about plans to sell the Iranians weapons and give the profits to the Contras if any more bills preventing using government funds to support the Contras was passed after H.AMDT.974 was passed. It even said that Reagan gave his full support. This is a gross violation of the powers of the CIA and executive branch. While the Executive Branch and CIA don't tell Congress everything they do, selling weapons to an enemy nation for ANY REASON, is something you should get congressional approval for. If the Hostage Delay Scandal never happened than this would have brought down Reagan.
 
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