DBWI: No Grexit?
- Thread starter Hades
- Start date
Five Star wouldn't be campaigning on Italexit for next year's elections. Or rather, they might, but they probably wouldn't be polling so well right now. Brexit, the referendum was promised already, although it might not have succeeded without Grexit. The nasty surprise where Jeremy Corbyn outflanked Cameron by advocating Leave should not have worked as well as it did.
Greece would have a considerably lower inflation rate but also a considerably higher unemployment rate. The Greek Economy really didn't start recovering until it got rid of the Euro. They didn't leave the EU until after Brussels threatened them with sanctions if they left the Euro. That backfired big time.
Considering that Greece was backed into a corner it's no surprise that they felt that they had nothing left to lose.
Five Star poll well only on their 'online' forum, same for podemos and the rest of the various eurosceptic movement...in reality more the situation in Greece become more an undeclared low level civil war and more their number sink; really while the 'poor and little' proud Greece stand up against the mighty and evil EU was and still is a 'cause celebre' for many left movement, more or less like the other 'almost failed' state aka bolivarist Venezuela, for the great majority of the european voters, the Athens fate is a grimm lesson on what happend when you cut your economic ties to the biggest trade block of the world.
And talking about grimm example, Brexit will have succeeed even without the Greece example, things between London and Bruxelles were complicated the moment the UK entered the EU...still seeing Corbym, hat on hand, signing a treaty that basically give to Bruxelles everything they have demanded in exchange to keep an Norway-like status really deflated all, except the most die hard, eurosceptic.
It's not that suddenly people love the Union, but seem that there is at least the understament that leave mean being much much worse.
The Greece economy still had not recovered, far from it; ironically the only thing that still keep the all thing going are the european humanitarian aid
And a major part of that aid goes to helping the great numbers of refugees from Syria and North Africa, etc, arriving to Greece, the ones the EU is not allowing to move on from Greece now that Greece is not a part of the EU anymore. Something very similar would happen to Italy after an "Italexit", like Brussels has warned Rome. So there's that...
samcster94
Banned
Grexit was a complete blunder. A potential Brexit would have been nowhere near as bad. Greece is losing political stability rapidly, and it did not help a far left party initiated the referendum.
German economic growth might also be doing better as well. With the Euro approaching $2 and Y250 in the exchange rate its too strong to permit exports. Germany's GDP growth is expected to flatline by year's end but most of the smaller nations continue to use the Euro. Now if Frexit comes to pass next election...
We might not have to suffer from those AfD nutjobs in power now in Germany. They are even openly talking about Dexit, and want to change the constitution for it! Retain Art. 29 VII GG!
Frexit is even less probable than English becoming the national language of France, the last serious poll give Le Pen (aka the major anti-euro) candidate at best the distant third place in the coming presidential election; and while a strong euro make export difficult...it's not all due of Germany (even if it quickly become a popular pastime blame Berlin for everything); Trump (very idiotic decision) to have a very weak dollar and possibly start a trade war with China, plus the general divisiness of american politics are very important factor too...expecially if many nations and private are starting to see the Euro as a more stable refuge currency.
More likely that since Greece was cut loose that was one less country to drag it down. Greece was a drag on Germany and Germany was a drag on Greece. The problem is that Germany and Greece need different currencies. The Germans need a strong one and the Greeks need a weak one. A single currency can't be strong and weak at the same time. The Euro might well spell the beginning of the end of the EU.
Considering that she's third behind a scandal plagued crook (Fillon) and a Chavista (Melenchon) I wouldn't be so sure yet.
She will crash and burn like the Five Star and Podemos; her big numbers are much more due to people protesting the current enstablishment than true desire for her to get on power. Just look at what happened in Netherlands, Italy and all over Europe, once the big nuts seemed to had a real possibility to win...the great part of their electoral support vanished.
Greece , before the crisis, needed more a competent political class and an efficent state, even if blame Euro and EU (that nevertheless are not blameless in the current Greece situation) it's more fashionable nowadays...unfortunely soon more than any currency they will need the UN peacekeepers
They need that as well, but Greece is not Germany is not Italy is not France. They are all different countries with different strengths and weakness so it isn't one currency fits all. That is one reason why IMO most of Europe has been stuck in neutral since the introduction of the Euro.
BigBlueBox
Banned
Now that Greece is out of the EU though, there is nobody who can stop them from repelling the migrants by force - unless Turkey starts complaining.