DBWI: No Cuomo In 92?

Hi all,

I've been reading Mario Cuomo's autobiography recently (I expect many of you read it ages ago, but if you haven't it's a fascinating read, regardless of whether you agree or disagree with him politically).

We all know how he went on to wrapp up the democratic nomination and subsequently defeat president Bush (who was suffering due to the poor economy).

One thing I didn't know about was his reluctance to run against the seemingly popular incumbent and apparently it took a great deal of persuading from his family and close political asociates to get him to run. Even on election night, the race was very close and Bush could have easily squeaked out a win, confirming Cuomo's doubts about running.

So, my question is, what happens if Cuomo decides (before the filing deadlines) that he'd rather not risk running against Bush?

If Cuomo isn't in the race, who do you think ends up with the nomination? Who would their running mate be? Would they manage to beat Bush?

Assuming they do, how does their presidency differ from Cuomo's?
 
Hi all,

I've been reading Mario Cuomo's autobiography recently (I expect many of you read it ages ago, but if you haven't it's a fascinating read, regardless of whether you agree or disagree with him politically).

We all know how he went on to wrapp up the democratic nomination and subsequently defeat president Bush (who was suffering due to the poor economy).

One thing I didn't know about was his reluctance to run against the seemingly popular incumbent and apparently it took a great deal of persuading from his family and close political asociates to get him to run. Even on election night, the race was very close and Bush could have easily squeaked out a win, confirming Cuomo's doubts about running.

So, my question is, what happens if Cuomo decides (before the filing deadlines) that he'd rather not risk running against Bush?

If Cuomo isn't in the race, who do you think ends up with the nomination? Who would their running mate be? Would they manage to beat Bush?

Assuming they do, how does their presidency differ from Cuomo's?

I don't know; from the candidates who actually ran in OTL, I think the most likely options would have been either Jerry Brown of Bill Clinton. Personally, of the two, I think Jerry Brown would have taken in. He was running as the fiscally moderate candidate that year, which would have played well during a recession. Also, as we all learned during his time as Vice-President, Clinton had a bit of an issue with sex scandals; at least in OTL the scandals hit while he was Vice-President, and had pretty much run their course by the time he ran for President in 2000. If one had hit back in 1992, though, I could see it sinking his campaign.
Of course, the thought of having a Clinton Presidency eight years earlier is a pretty interesting!
 
I don't know; from the candidates who actually ran in OTL, I think the most likely options would have been either Jerry Brown of Bill Clinton. Personally, of the two, I think Jerry Brown would have taken in. He was running as the fiscally moderate candidate that year, which would have played well during a recession. Also, as we all learned during his time as Vice-President, Clinton had a bit of an issue with sex scandals; at least in OTL the scandals hit while he was Vice-President, and had pretty much run their course by the time he ran for President in 2000. If one had hit back in 1992, though, I could see it sinking his campaign.
Of course, the thought of having a Clinton Presidency eight years earlier is a pretty interesting!

Well, Cuomo's top opponent in '92 was supposed to be Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey. Of course we all know that Kerrey's campaign fizzled after back-to-back poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. Then again, that was largely due to being boxed out by Cuomo in the center-left. Maybe Kerrey's themes of health care reform and fiscal responsibility would have played better without another progressive in the race?

Cuomo's top-two opponents end being Senator Paul Tsongas and Governor Bill Clinton. Tsongas did after all win in New Hampshire, upsetting Cuomo and prolonging the nomination. Even though he fizzled out in the Midwest and South, Tsongas was still a real threat at knocking off Cuomo. Same with Clinton in the South. That was the reason that Cuomo chose him as his running-mate. Either one could have been competitive if Cuomo hadn't jumped in. Of course, what really made "Super Mario" impressive was his ability to pull end-runs on his major opponents. He embraced health care reform (undercutting Kerrey), advocated improvements in research-and-development and education reform (taking away Tsongas's major issue, besides the budget) and was just as big a supporter of the middle-class tax cut as Clinton. By taking away their signature issues, one-by-one he turned his top competition into one-trick ponies (Kerrey and Tsongas could only really attack Cuomo on the budget, while Clinton hammered away at welfare-reform until he appeared more like Newt Gingrich than his running-mate.)
 
Hmm, I wonder, in a "No Cuomo" scenario, does Ross Perot garner more or less traction?

That's a tricky one-I guess it depends on how the campaign goes, who the dem nominee is and whether this affects Perot's decision to drop out (and reenter a few weeks later).
 
I don't know too much about Brown, would he be able to beat Bush? If he did, what would his presidency be like? How about a potential Tsongas or Kerry presidency?

From what I remember about the Clinton scandles, they sort of trickled out during Cuomo's presidency, though their were murmers about them during the election.

Like you say, this meant the fuss had died down when Clinton ran for president in 2000 and it was a bit of a non-issue (besides the Family Vallues stuff the Bush campaign were churning out). If he runs on his own 8 years early he won't be running as a well-known (and popular) Vice President, he'll be a vertual unknown to most before the election and the media will have more to "look in to". On the other hand though the economy isn't looking good and won't favour the encumbent, plus Clinton has potential to do a bit better in the South than Cuomo did in OTL.
 
I don't know too much about Brown, would he be able to beat Bush? If he did, what would his presidency be like? How about a potential Tsongas or Kerry presidency?

From what I remember about the Clinton scandles, they sort of trickled out during Cuomo's presidency, though their were murmers about them during the election.

Like you say, this meant the fuss had died down when Clinton ran for president in 2000 and it was a bit of a non-issue (besides the Family Vallues stuff the Bush campaign were churning out). If he runs on his own 8 years early he won't be running as a well-known (and popular) Vice President, he'll be a vertual unknown to most before the election and the media will have more to "look in to". On the other hand though the economy isn't looking good and won't favour the encumbent, plus Clinton has potential to do a bit better in the South than Cuomo did in OTL.

Yeah, I've always wondered if 1992 was early enough to reverse the Republican grip on the South. Had, say, Clinton (or Al Gore or Ray Mabus) been the nominee, and campaigned heavily on their "New Democrat" personas, could they have won states on the periphery of the South, like Arkansas, Tennesee, Virginia, and North Carolina? Maybe even some of the Deep South?
 
I don't think any of the other Democratic contenders could have defeated Bush. Cuomo was probably the only one capable of bringing together the needed coalition of voters to secure victory. And, as you already said, it was a very close race to begin with, as Cuomo only secured victory with Ohio's 21 electoral votes. I'm not sure any candidate, whether Bob Kerrey or Bill Clinton, would have won Ohio and therefore, probably would've lost the election 277-261.

As for Clinton doing better in the South, I think he would have, but then would have struggled more in the NE. I don't see Clinton being able to win New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania (or, as mentioned, Ohio) at the time. My guess is that Bush would have been able to breeze through reelection had Clinton won the nomination.
 
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