DBWI : No bloody American quagmire consequence for The unification of Germany

Everyone recognizes the work done by Bismarck to unify the German confederation. But we must admit that he was really helped by the bloody American quagmire. During almost two decades France was
forced to fight against Mexicans in begining (without much difficulties ) until USA threatened them pushing France to join the secessionists and therefore saving them on the razor's edge leaving the field wide open for Prussia in Europa.

Bismarck seemed to think that Prussia needed to make a war against France to conclude the unification and he tried several times to provoke conflicts against France but the french empire never took the bait and Bismarck eventually gave up.

Now in an another TL where France never tried to invade Mexico or they lost quickly what would have been the consequences for the unification of Germany ?
 
Everyone recognizes the work done by Bismarck to unify the German confederation. But we must admit that he was really helped by the bloody American quagmire. During almost two decades France was
forced to fight against Mexicans in begining (without much difficulties ) until USA threatened them pushing France to join the secessionists and therefore saving them on the razor's edge leaving the field wide open for Prussia in Europa.

Bismarck seemed to think that Prussia needed to make a war against France to conclude the unification and he tried several times to provoke conflicts against France but the french empire never took the bait and Bismarck eventually gave up.

Now in an another TL where France never tried to invade Mexico or they lost quickly what would have been the consequences for the unification of Germany ?
The Germans won because of superior Prussian tactics and officers, I don't see this pod changing that.
 
Yeah a french victory seems unlikely the bloody American quagmire showed the numerous defaults of the French army as well as its arrogance that nearly caused their defeat.

But a prussian victory would surely create a more unified Germany and maybe an erlier one, however even today the germans state get a lot of autonomy and some of them really love France(that seems unlikely in case of Franco-Prussian war) And above all perhaps that Germany would have annexed Alsace which seems hard to believe seen Bismark policy, the Süddeutschland culture would be maybe weakens seens that France and Austria always supported this particularism and played with that to
immobilized Germany.

How would this Alt Germany be seen ? What kind of Germany would be created ? ....
 
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In my estimation, you'd have to change the Battle of Gettysburg and thus prevent the Anglo-French intervention that followed it in the weeks after.

According to the Post-War memoirs of Confederate Captain Samuel R. Johnston, the officer who conducted the early morning reconnaissance for Longstreet on July 2nd, he very nearly did fail to report that the planned road for Longstreet's march crested a ridge where Federal observers on Little Round Top could see it. Had he not accurately reported such, Longstreet's forces would've been forced to counter-march once they discovered this, throwing the attack time tables off and pushing his attack later into the day. This would've likely exhausted them before they could even get into combat, given the expanded distance would've been close to 20 miles. Further adding to this, Union Major General Daniel Sickles was planning to move his forces forward due to the poor terrain of the defensive position he had been ordered into, but Longstreet's attack beat him to doing such. So, not only would Longstreet's men be tired, but Sickles would inadvertently spoil their planned attack by moving his men forwards, and the combination of these two things would probably be sufficient to save the Federals lines that day.

Such would be a massive change from what we know did happen IOTL that day, which saw Longstreet's movement go off relatively perfectly. His 13 Brigades, after a short period to rest and fetch water, jumped off and attacked downhill on the six brigades of Sickles, whom were stretched out in a line and had no integrated artillery support due to the boggy ground and the poor elevation of their position. Longstreet's attack effectively cut the Taneytown Road and managed to, in conjunction with Ewell's own offensive, surround and destroy the Union's 1st, 2nd, and 11th Corps. Stuart's arrival later in the day allowed Lee to thereafter destroy the bridges over the Rock Creek, and thus further destroy the 6th and 12th Corps after their route of retreat and resupply was thus removed. Only the 3rd and 5th Corps managed to escape the disaster, thanks to their position on the southern portions of the Taneytown Road, which allowed them to retreat to the Pipecreek Line. In the weeks after, as we all know, Harrisburg and the local coal mines were set ablaze and Philadelphia was occupied; such ultimately led to the passage of the Roebuck Motion in the British Parliament and the subsequent Anglo-French intervention that ended the war.

So, without Longstreet's success that day, we can presume Lee at best manages to pull off a tactical draw or slight victory and thus the Roebuck Motion might stall out. Without the Anglo-French intervention, France would've not firmly tied itself to the Confederacy, obviously, which would've removed its principal ally in dissuading aggressive American actions against their (The French) forces in Mexico. IOTL, this alliance, which threatened the United States with renewed warfare with both the Confederacy and their French backers, led to steep decline in American support for Juarez. Without such a decline of support and perhaps with butterflies saving Juarez from capture after the defeats of November of 1863, the Republican cause could've likely remained more unified and thus effective instead of degenerating into the disorganized partisan bands as it did IOTL, which caused the French enough trouble to keep them occupied, but not enough to force them out-in other words, a quagmire.

What effect this has on Europe, I cannot say, but at least I think I've given you a basis on how such could be setup.
 
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Yes even if nowadays Suarez is seen rather negatively he would have had enough authority to unified the rebels.
It's true that the secessionists play the major role in the war even after the Anglo-French intervention (better armed, better organized, not the problem of the Atlantic for logistic, ...) but yes contrary to the popular myth I do not think that it would have been possible for them to gain alone i mean even with the help of french and english(
resource, weapon, soldiers, ...) the war was tight.

So thanks now i get a realistic POD
 
To be honest, without the American quagmire, I can see the French losing even worse. Their experience, especially against Sherman, convinced them to reform their army command. Thus, while they lost to Prussia and badly, the Empire was able to survive. The Prussians never took Paris, and Bismarck was able to convince some of the more nationalist German politicians to let France get off with recognizing the unification and some token reparations. If France lost worse, who knows; a Franco-German rivalry could have supplanted the Franco-British rivalry that led to WWI IOTL.
 
Yeah but this war was more a franco-prussian war that a franco-german one(many german prince refused to help Prussia during the war, while Germany was supposed to be unified),fortunately for the second empire, Napoleon IV was against this war and was too young to be in command

And no France didn't lose badly i disagree the beginning was atrocious for french armies yes but when the French army chose to avoid frontal clashes and rather harassed the Prussian army everybody laughed at the French but the Prussians book shows that it was a deadly technique which prompted the Prussians to make a peace of the brave.
recently many books highlight the harassment tactics (la technique de l'Harcèlement) coming from the bloody American quagmire.

in any case the fact that France enjoyed a positive image in Germany and was treated with dignity allowed the creation of the continental alliance
which nearly disappeared several times ironically the fact that the UK modernize Russia, Ottomans at high speed allied with Italy to maintain the balance of power saved this alliance which led to the great war or the WW1.
 
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