DBWI: No Aries? (ESA)

[Bahamut-255]

AN: This is my first real attempt at any kind of AH. So sorry if parts seem a little...off. I'd greatly appreciate any constructive advice you are able to provide.

As I'm sure you're aware. We're approaching the 17th anniversary of the first - albiet unmanned - launch of the ESA Aries Manned Spacecraft - a relatively lightweight three-crew, 9,000Kg, tri-module craft that resembles the Russian Soyuz Manned Spacecraft. A system that, combined with the Ariane 4* - which happens to be the first launch vehicle to utilise CCBs (Common Core Boosters) and Propellant Cross-Feed - made possible a flexible family of modular systems that allowed for an immense array of missions to be undertaken. Of which the Mars Sample Return Mission, via ISPP, is currently the shining example within their robotic mission front. One which has suffered only one, non-fatal - failure within it's life. And allowed for the continuation of ISS Asembly and Crew ferrying following the Columbia Disaster and subsequent suspension of US manned launches. Which - perhaps surprisingly at the time of selection - is of UK Manufacture.

The question I ask of you is this. What would have been the case had it not been built? Either because it's chief rival, Hermes the mini-shuttle, had been selected instead. Or if neither were selected.

Would the ESA still hold a commanding - if not dominant - position withing the space-faring nations?

Would the ESA be stuck primarily as a commercial launch provider? Though it still has quite a number of orders OTL at 30-32%.

And would the UK have been able to experience a revival of sorts withing its then-beleagered manufacturing base? Even if it's only in top-end technological fields these days.


* Ariane 4: Modular Mid-Heavy Payload Launch Vehicle.

Payload to LEO (225Km, 51.6 degree inclination, manned) - 9,080Kg

Payload to LEO (225Km, 5.2 degree inclination, unmanned, Heavy) - 40,450Kg

Payload to TLI - 15,000Kg Max

Payload to TMI/TVI - 13,100Kg Max

 

[e of pi]

AN: This is my first real attempt at any kind of AH. So sorry if parts seem a little...off. I'd greatly appreciate any constructive advice you are able to provide.

OOC: You want my advice? Don't make this a DBWI. If you've thought this through enough to have payload numbers and you really want to talk about this vehicle and the effect it has on spaceflight...don't let us uninformed nutters influence it.

I like the notion of the vehicle, I'm personally a big fan of CCB designs. I think you may be overplaying slightly what the ESA could do on their budget, and US manned launch wouldn't just cut off after Columbia. There'd either be an RTF forShuttle as OTL or some replacement. Back in '03 there was enough of a solid space block in Congress that NASA manned flight wouldn't just be allowed to disappear completely with no replacement on the drawing board., though whether that's an alt-Ares-V or something more like the Jupiter family or (outside chance) something non-Shuttle-derived is up for grabs and could have an impact on the time it takes to make it happen.

I'd really be interested in more on the history of the vehicle and spacecraft, what its design and specs are, the history of how it came to be. And for that...just tell it yourself, making it a DBWI just gives us the freedom to screw up the telling of something you've obviously put thought into. I know I'll be way more interested in that than just another space DBWI that just turns into a wank-your-favorite-rocket/country game.

 

[Bahamut-255]

OOC: You want my advice? Don't make this a DBWI. If you've thought this through enough to have payload numbers and you really want to talk about this vehicle and the effect it has on spaceflight...don't let us uninformed nutters influence it.

I like the notion of the vehicle, I'm personally a big fan of CCB designs. I think you may be overplaying slightly what the ESA could do on their budget, and US manned launch wouldn't just cut off after Columbia. There'd either be an RTF forShuttle as OTL or some replacement. Back in '03 there was enough of a solid space block in Congress that NASA manned flight wouldn't just be allowed to disappear completely with no replacement on the drawing board., though whether that's an alt-Ares-V or something more like the Jupiter family or (outside chance) something non-Shuttle-derived is up for grabs and could have an impact on the time it takes to make it happen.

I'd really be interested in more on the history of the vehicle and spacecraft, what its design and specs are, the history of how it came to be. And for that...just tell it yourself, making it a DBWI just gives us the freedom to screw up the telling of something you've obviously put thought into. I know I'll be way more interested in that than just another space DBWI that just turns into a wank-your-favorite-rocket/country game.

OOC: Thanks for the comments. So you know, Columbia only results in a suspension, prior to Return To Flight - as per OTL. And while space is a favoured topic of mine, the number crunching is not my defining attribute - not that it's gonna stop me.

This is serving primarily as a means of opinion gathering, and plausibility checking for a future AH TL. Setting it up as a DBWI simply came across as a more fun means of doing so IMHO.

And I think I'll take you up on your advice and attempt to make a real AH timeline based on this.

 

[e of pi]

OOC: Thanks for the comments. So you know, Columbia only results in a suspension, prior to Return To Flight - as per OTL.

Interesting. Then how would your Aries play into ISS? Sounds like crew rotation and maybe some element launch (though that would require some kind of autonomous maneuvering capacity, some kind of robotic spacecraft bus to move the move from the launch orbit to rendezvouz and docking). It'd be nice if this means some of the modules cut from the roster OTL to simplify the remaining schedule fly--the centrifuge module (CAM) being my personal if-only.

And while space is a favoured topic of mine, the number crunching is not my defining attribute - not that it's gonna stop me.

A few recommendations from one alt-rocket-designer to another, then. Wikipedia and Astronautix are decent sources for the capabilities of the tech various agencies have on hand, and can give you a feel for how they tend to think (which contrary to what you may have heard has a lot to do with what the engineering "best answer" is). Shilling's Launch Vehicle Performance calculator can let you turn those numbers into capabilities. Enter vehicle characteristics like mass, thrust, stage information, launch site, destination, and it can give you rough information on capabilities.

This is serving primarily as a means of opinion gathering, and plausibility checking for a future AH TL. Setting it up as a DBWI simply came across as a more fun means of doing so IMHO.

Unfortunately, DBWIs generally end up with people trying to shape the world being created than commenting on the original start, usually to the advantage of their particular ax to grind. What you want is just comments. Let us know what you've got in mind, and we'll let you know what we think.

And I think I'll take you up on your advice and attempt to make a real AH timeline based on this.

I hope to see more! It sounds interesting.

 

[Ariosto]

If you kill the Ariane Rockets then you likely kill the Hermes Shuttle Program as well; it was being designed with the Ariane 5 rocket in mind. That's not to say that you could not boost it using another rocket, but I am not sure if the ESA would be willing to construct their own Shuttles and then have to Purchase Foreign Rockets in order to fly those Shuttles.​

 

[Bahamut-255]

If you kill the Ariane Rockets then you likely kill the Hermes Shuttle Program as well; it was being designed with the Ariane 5 rocket in mind. That's not to say that you could not boost it using another rocket, but I am not sure if the ESA would be willing to construct their own Shuttles and then have to Purchase Foreign Rockets in order to fly those Shuttles.​

OOC: Hermes is already dead. It was dropped in favour of a Manned Capsule design, reminicient of the Soyuz, meaning the ALT Ariane 4 is up to the job.