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After the sinking of the USS Panay the US and UK came to an agreement. The US was to build the Burma Railroad along side the Burma Road paying for all the track, railroad engines and boxcars. For doing this the US was entitled to use half the railroad tonnage to ship supplies and trade goods into China via the railroad. The tonnage of supplies rose by a factor of three the first year and increased further as more track was laid. What if the agreement didn't happen?