DBWI: Muslim Lebanon

Since its independence, Lebanon has been the most westernized country in the Middle East, keeping a 80% of its people christian and removing a big part of their muslim minority after the population exchange that happened between this country and Syria. Is probably one of the most Israel-friendly countries of the region, even if it generally keeps its neutrality during almost all of the conflicts. So, how could Lebanon become a muslim-majority country ?
 
Last edited:

BigBlueBox

Banned
When the French first established their mandate over Lebanon and Syria, there was a plan to expand Lebanon's borders into Syria. However, it was feared that doing so would dilute the Maronite majority so Lebanon's borders remained the same as the Mount Lebanon Mutasarrifate, plus Beirut. If this expansion had gone forward it is likely that Lebanon could have become Muslim majority simply due to higher Muslim birthrates. If Lebanon had a border with Israel it is also possible that Israel would have expelled Palestinians into Lebanon, increasing the amount of Muslims.
 
It's possible, but would require tons of emigration. That rate of emigration has only been seen from Ireland and South Japan and both under very unique circumstances.
 
The quickest - but cruellest - way to ensure a Muslim Lebanon is the 1860 Mt. Lebanon Civil War, where the French fail to make an intervention. This would have been difficult, given Napoleon III had gone to war with Russia specifically to gain the title "Defenders of Christians in the Holy Land". For all the guy's bumbling, he at least made an effort.

But here's the thing. Lebanon was at most 50% Christian. According to the constitution minted in 1948, a third of the people were Maronites, hence they had a third of the seats in Parliament. Demographics shifted, but the number of seats stayed the same. The Lebanese government hasn't done an official census since 1970 for this reason; the scramble for power along demographic lines might trigger a second civil war.

The Christians were a vast majority at the start - when it was just Mount Lebanon. In order to make the state viable, the French had to shave bits of the North from Syria to give it valid ports, and give them Beirut, which had an even split of Christians and Muslims. This had the effect of giving Lebanon a considerable (Sunni) Muslim minority, something the Lebanese Christian leadership feared would cause the Syrians to seek a casus belli - hence why they kept close ties to France and the West. The Shi'ites in the south were all dirt-farmers, but France didn't want to give the territory to Israel (something which upset many Zionists who wanted the territory up to the Leitani), so they wound up as part of Lebanon too; an underclass taken advantage of by the Christian leaders and the Sunni Opposition.
 

Bison

Banned
When the French first established their mandate over Lebanon and Syria, there was a plan to expand Lebanon's borders into Syria. However, it was feared that doing so would dilute the Maronite majority so Lebanon's borders remained the same as the Mount Lebanon Mutasarrifate, plus Beirut. If this expansion had gone forward it is likely that Lebanon could have become Muslim majority simply due to higher Muslim birthrates. If Lebanon had a border with Israel it is also possible that Israel would have expelled Palestinians into Lebanon, increasing the amount of Muslims.

OOC: This is interesting. Do Muslims have a higher birthrate than Christians just because of being Muslim? Is this due to other factors, such as socioeconomic status? Why do two groups in the same country with roughly the same socioeconomic position have different birth rates?
 
OOC: This is interesting. Do Muslims have a higher birthrate than Christians just because of being Muslim? Is this due to other factors, such as socioeconomic status? Why do two groups in the same country with roughly the same socioeconomic position have different birth rates?

The Christians and Muslim groups did not occupy the same socioeconomic positions; the Christians tended to be more centrally positioned and more Westernized than the Sunnis, who in turn were more so than the Shiites.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
OOC: This is interesting. Do Muslims have a higher birthrate than Christians just because of being Muslim? Is this due to other factors, such as socioeconomic status? Why do two groups in the same country with roughly the same socioeconomic position have different birth rates?
OOC: Muslim birthrates in Lebanon have been falling for decades, to the point that they are about equal with Christian birthrates. But they used to be significantly higher than Christian birthrates.
 
One thing is certain: a muslim Lebanon probably wouldn't try to join the E.U as they did IOTL (yes, they are still trying, but many people say that it might be easier for them to go to the European Union than some european countries, as Lebanon is today a quite stable and democratic country). A union with Syria might make the region we know as Lebanon more muslim, but a reunification like this was only made with Turkey and Azerbaijan after the fall of the USSR, and it was followed by many problems (even if most of them were caused by Russia or Armenia)
 
Top