DBWI: Mexican-American War in the 19th Century?

After the Texas War of Independence, Mexico and the USA almost went to war over it. Fortunately, and thanks to the United Kingdom, the two (three) countries reached an agreement.

But what if they had gone to war?
 
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Seems like an ASB to me. I mean, you'd have to have the British political leadership just completely ignore what was going on in Mexico and the American frontier, and the Mexican government would have had to have been really stupid to go to war with the United States. I just don't think it's plausible.;)
 
It would have been really bad for both countries (possibly worse for Mexico). For one it could have not been a short war, the US was seriously set in reaching the Pacific; it did so by negotiating a 49th parallel compromise over Oregon with Britain and the 37th parallel [1] with Mexico (thanks to British mediation) as long as it recognized Texas as an independent nation. Mexico on the other hand was equally as stubborn in keeping all of its territory. Even those it could not defend. Thankfully President Farias [2] managed to convince Congress it would be best to sacrifice the north and gain British protection.

If war erupted the US would have a long march down from Texas into Mexico, even if Monterrey and the Northern provinces where occupied the only way to defeat Mexico would be to take on the capital. The shorter route through Veracruz would be equally as complicated due to diseases and weather. You would have American troops entrenched in an unfriendly country with no exit. Which also leaves us with the possibility of British intervention in favor of Mexico. A scenario that would not turn out good for the US.

[1] South of San Francisco Bay north of Monterrey Bay
[2] A progressive leader who opposed Santa Anna and caused the Polkos Rebellion in Puebla do to his liberal ideas.
 
So, the U.S. would try to claim Mexico, hoping for a southern route to the Pacific instead of a Northern. Seems rather silly since they only had to negotiate peacefully with Britain to get the northern route.

More than likely, when the U.S. became warlike, Britain would step in and start enforcing its claims in Columbia, Oregon and Shasta[1] in order to avoid losing them. The U.S. would lose the war (see jycee's comments) and not get any route to the Pacific. They'd probably last as a nation, but the Civil War would be delayed and they definitely wouldn't become one of the 'Friendly Nations Up North'[2] whose exports helped Mexico build it's commercial trading success.

Mexico would keep all the gold in California (although obviously not the gold fields in Shasta, that would go to Britain), instead of just a portion of it -- although I can't resist mentioning that the Mariposa 'War'[3] would be butterflied away. But the extra gold's not necessary a good thing. Mexico might grow to become a world power much faster, or their economy would fly high and then crash and burn, and the entire northwestern half of Mexico would shatter into petty dictatorships like Tejas, Rio Grande, Coahuila and Nuevo Leon did. Probably followed close after by a large portion of the southeastern Mexico -- although if the Mexico City can use that gold to hold on the Yucatan, maybe not.

[1] The northwest coast is divided into four states: California (known internationally as Anglo-California) to the 40th Parallel, Shasta to the 43rd, Oregon to the Columbia River and Columbia above that.
[2] Other nations in this group include Canada, Manitoba and British Columbia.
[3] A bloodless confrontation in which U.S. gold prospectors attempted to push their claims into the Mexican state of Mariposa[4], until the U.S. government stepped in to avoid an international incident.
[4] Formed by Mexico out of a portion of northern California in an effort to manage their portion of the gold rush. Translates into English as 'Butterfly'.
 
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