DBWI: Medvedev wins 2008 russian elections.

After the Presidency of Vladimir Putin, in the 2008 Presidential elections United Russia's candidate and unofficial successor Dmitri Medvedev lost in a very close election against Union of Right Candidate: Boris Nemstov. This led to an uncomfortable cohabitation (as Putin became Prime Minister) that ended when Kasparov replaced Putin in 2012 as PM.

What'd happen if United Russia maintained both the Presidency and the Duma control in 2008?
 
Putin would almost certainly have returned to the Presidency in 2012-and in many respects would have remained in control during the interim. I'm not sure precisely how the effort to "elect" Medevdev failed-Putin was no stranger to fraudulent electioneering.

But under normal circumstances Putin's "managed democracy" would have continued to function. By extension his kleptocratic system wouldn't have met with the pushback that Russia saw with President Nemstov.

Presumably Khodorkovsky would have remained in prison here. Hard to see Putin ever permitting his release.

It goes without saying that if United Russia maintains power Vladimir Putin never faces a corruption indictment-much less a conviction. Simply put Medevdev "winning" keeps Putin out of prison.

Not sure what the impact of no Putin trial would be-but the probe did manage to drag down a number of prominent Putin-allied oligarchs along with the former President.

Internationally the most immediate difference is in Ukraine.

There's a chance this might mean that Tymoshenko doesn't narrowly win the 2010 Ukrainian Presidential election.

Putin was far more supportive of Yanukovych and his Party of Regions than Nemstov was. Presumably a still in power Putin would channel further covert Russian support in that direction. At various points Yanukovych was favored to win that election.

Yanukovych winning means a more corrupt, less Democratic, and more Moscow oriented Ukraine.
 

Pesigalam

Banned
After the Presidency of Vladimir Putin, in the 2008 Presidential elections United Russia's candidate and unofficial successor Dmitri Medvedev lost in a very close election against Union of Right Candidate: Boris Nemstov. This led to an uncomfortable cohabitation (as Putin became Prime Minister) that ended when Kasparov replaced Putin in 2012 as PM.

What'd happen if United Russia maintained both the Presidency and the Duma control in 2008?
Yeah, 2008 was the year of the ASB: a Yeltsenite took power in Russia, refugees started fleeing South Korea for safety of North Korea, Zimbabwe had the best performing economic growth of any nation on the planet and USA elected its 1st black president -- Jimmy "the Rent is too Damn High" McMillan. Man, what a time to be alive...

To answer your question, without Boris Nemstov in office Peter Shukoff & Lloyd Ahlquist would never make the famous "McMillan VS Nemstov" Epic Rap Battle in 2010. But who knows -- maybe we'd get the "McMillan VS Medvedev" battle instead? It does have a nice ring to it...

(OOC: hey, if Nemstov can get elected in Russia than so can McMillan win the US presidential election)
 
Top