DBWI: McCain looses 2000?

So the 43rd President of the United States has recently Passed away. This brings up the question. What if President McCain didn't win the 2000 presidential election? What if instead Bush or Gore won? How history change? Would the Iraq war still happen with a president Bush or Gore? How would a Bush or Gore response to 9/11 be different? Would Obama still win in 2008? If Bush won in 2000 who would get the republican nomination in 2008? And who would be be Bush's VP if he won? Would there be less swing states?
 
Since Bush was so incompetent that he lost his own party's nomination despite all his numerous advantages (backed by party establishment, son of a President, Governor of one of the largest states for six years) then I'm sure he would have lost to Gore. And in the event that he somehow won, he wouldn't have been a good or even capable President. Now had Gore won, then he'd be dealing with a split Congress with the Republicans looking to stymie him at every turn. He might be able to pass pet legislation like cap-and-trade or the infamous "lock-box," but otherwise he wouldn't be able to pass many important bills. Gore attacked HW Bush for not overthrowing Hussein back in 1991, but I doubt that he'd go looking for an excuse to invade Iraq in the 2002-03 period like McCain did. Once McCain had the WMD "evidence" he took it and ran with it without thinking twice and it cost him. It's a shame really, President McCain had so many great accomplishments like campaign finance reform, his leadership during 9/11, getting Bin Laden only months later, but Iraq is a blot on this record like Vietnam is for LBJ.
 

FBKampfer

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Not to mention his atrocious domestic policy.

I mean, yeah he's always been a "maverick", sort of. But then again, he's still a conservative pick. I think in hind sight, the failure to veto the bill banning gay servicemen from the military really bit him in the ass the most.

Charging into Iraq is semi-forgivable. Hes far from the first leader to do something like that, and his screw-up arguably had the least impact at home of any one of them in history.

But the two images just really didn't mesh. Especially having been quoted showing support for any man or woman willing to put on the uniform for their country, and then the Iraq war vets turning into the new Vietnam War vets, and finally banning LGBT members.


Any one of them on their own would have been completely possible to ninjitsu away with a competent PR department. But for reasons known perhaps only to God, he stumbled into all of them.


Edit: thinking on it, my bet is that gore would have been basically another Jimmy Carter. Mild as milk, good intentions, and a solid record, but stymied by political realities.
 
Since Bush was so incompetent that he lost his own party's nomination despite all his numerous advantages (backed by party establishment, son of a President, Governor of one of the largest states for six years) then I'm sure he would have lost to Gore. And in the event that he somehow won, he wouldn't have been a good or even capable President. Now had Gore won, then he'd be dealing with a split Congress with the Republicans looking to stymie him at every turn. He might be able to pass pet legislation like cap-and-trade or the infamous "lock-box," but otherwise he wouldn't be able to pass many important bills. Gore attacked HW Bush for not overthrowing Hussein back in 1991, but I doubt that he'd go looking for an excuse to invade Iraq in the 2002-03 period like McCain did. Once McCain had the WMD "evidence" he took it and ran with it without thinking twice and it cost him. It's a shame really, President McCain had so many great accomplishments like campaign finance reform, his leadership during 9/11, getting Bin Laden only months later, but Iraq is a blot on this record like Vietnam is for LBJ.
Not to mention the fact Iran almost went to war with us, and Syria was its own mistake. But McCain was a fairly popular for most of his presidency even with the Iraq war (his appeal to Hispanics surprisingly helped him with the electoral college.) His 2nd term was really when his approval rating suffered. McCain's "Immigration Deal" was also a large accomplishment of his presidency that seems to be overlooked. I wonder if relations with Russia would be warmer without McCain screwing up the relations. Its improved recently with Obama and Trump but McCain almost erased all the work Reagan, Bush, and Clinton did to warm up relations with Russia.
 
Gore would have been mediocre.

Bush would have been an utter disaster.
Both probably would have been one-termers. Its rare a party ever gets more than 12 consecutive years in the white house. The last time that happened was with FDR so a 2 term Gore would be unlikely IMO. Bush probably wouldn't have a good response to 9/11, and the 2002 recession would be the final blow. In the off chance he wins in 2004 there he would have to squeeze it out instead of winning a large margin like McCain. This could have some unintended butterflies like Latinos still being a solid democratic block. This could mean a greater win for Obama in '08, and '12, along with an alternate 2016 with either a different victor or just a different map along with a change in the Popular Vote. But a 2 term Bush Jr. seems kinda scary either way. Most likely we'd have a one term Gore with a republican squeezing in a victory in 2004. Probably Giuliani since he was mayor during 9/11 and could use that to his advantage.
 
like campaign finance reform

Very true. Quite a few would-be politicians have howled about that one, but it’s certainly made for a much cleaner political arena.

You might have seen some interesting butterflies without it. The GOP lead in Congress might be a lot bigger rather than being a knife-edge as it is ...

I think in hind sight, the failure to veto the bill banning gay servicemen from the military really bit him in the ass the most...and finally banning LGBT members.

Yeah...that was awful. Thankfully Obama managed to reverse that during his first term, and let them serve openly with the ‘United Defence Act’.

Conservatives howled at that one...though it’s interesting, during campaigning Trump didn’t say much about it, and then after election he basically said ‘we’ve other things to do now and we don’t want to disrupt the military by another change, we’re moving on’. Probably didn’t want to stir up trouble given how narrow the GOP majority is. So it seems open LGBT service members are there to stay.
 
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Not to mention his atrocious domestic policy
Yea... could the 2008 recession be avoided with a president gore or bush?
Edit: or even a Gore in 2000 and Giuliani in 2004? Or is it inevitable? If so what’s the best bet to soften the blow to the economy?
 
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OOC: Really? Where?
“I wonder if relations with Russia would be warmer without McCain screwing up the relations. Its improved recently with Obama and Trump but McCain almost erased all the work Reagan, Bush, and Clinton did to warm up relations with Russia.” I mean policies can be different (I mentioned how mccain did something with immigration. And slided in a comment about Syria)
 
If so what’s the best bet to soften the blow to the economy?

OCC: Since the President just enforces laws and can't make them, there's only so much one can do. However, the President can act unilaterally in certain instances. For one, he could fire Alan Greenspan and have the next Fed Chairman slightly raise interest rates to discourage the rampant spending and borrowing that contributed to the economic crisis.
 
“I wonder if relations with Russia would be warmer without McCain screwing up the relations. Its improved recently with Obama and Trump but McCain almost erased all the work Reagan, Bush, and Clinton did to warm up relations with Russia.” I mean policies can be different (I mentioned how mccain did something with immigration. And slided in a comment about Syria)

OOC: Edited. Sorry about that!
 
Bush was a good cheerleader for McCain, I think he would've been a slightly more Conservative Version of McCain, which is basically what Jeb Bush ran as as the 2008 nominee. How well that would've fared for "Dubya" as he liked being called all depends. He lacked experience and had a history of gaffes and misspeaking so he may not be able to accomplish as much as McCain or spin things as well as he did, so 2004 might've narrowly gone to the Democrats.

As for Gore, he would've been an overall accomplished President, but the recession as well as not getting a rally around the flag effect from 9/11 as lasting as McCain's was in OTL, would've given the GOP the win in 2004. Gore would've basically been the Democratic George HW Bush to Clinton's Reagan. People wouldn't appreciate him at first, I think People would give him credit where credit was due with the passing of time, as was the case with President Bush.
 
Conservative Version of McCain, which is basically what Jeb Bush ran as as the 2008 nominee.
Well Jeb was kind in the middle of his brother and McCain. He agreed with McCain on imigration which helped him with the Latino vote (him also knowing Spanish and having a mexican born wife was also a major boost.)
Gore would've basically been the Democratic George HW Bush to Clinton's Reagan.
yea. Reagan and Clinton were both charasmatic and charming while their VPs were both boring and seemed to only speak in a monotone voice sometimes. But at least there would be no war in Iraq under gore.
 
Conservatives howled at that one...though it’s interesting, during campaigning Trump didn’t say much about it, and then after election he basically said ‘we’ve other things to do now and we don’t want to disrupt the military by another change, we’re moving on’. Probably didn’t want to stir up trouble given how narrow the GOP majority is. So it seems open LGBT service members are there to stay.
Yea. It seems the GOP has slowly more socially liberal over the years. I wonder how the two parties could change without McCain's presidency. I don't think the same thing would happen with a president bush. Things like gay marriage might still be illegal.
 
I think Bush might have driven the party further to the right. McCain was the rare instance of a President that was willing to work with Democrats on certain legislation. While his second term has not be viewed as favorably as his first term, his exiting approval rating of 52% was still pretty good. Too bad it wasn’t enough for Jeb to win in 2008.
 
I think Bush might have driven the party further to the right. McCain was the rare instance of a President that was willing to work with Democrats on certain legislation. While his second term has not be viewed as favorably as his first term, his exiting approval rating of 52% was still pretty good. Too bad it wasn’t enough for Jeb to win in 2008.
Well 2008 is hard for a republican to win. The best bet for a Jeb victory would be if he campaigned more in Oregon, and California, and less in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan. He did pretty good despite the recession, but you’d have to butterfly the recession to have Jeb be like his father in succeeding McCain and winning near the levels McCain did in ‘04.
 
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