DBWI: Mario Cuomo Doesn't Run in 1992

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Amadeus, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. TheAllTimeGreatest Well-Known Member

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    I was surprised at how there was no net gain for either side in the Senate. Sure, Joe Heck won in Nevada, but it was cancelled out by Tammy Duckworth’s win in Illinois. And, Republicans only gained 7 seats in then House.

    I was surprised by Booker as Biden’s VP pick. He’s from a state that is solidly Democratic at the national level. And he was only in the Senate for two and a half years before becoming Biden’s VP pick.
     
  2. Amadeus Well-Known Member

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    To my knowledge, Democratic leaders chose Booker because he was young and could drive minority turnout. Some in the beltway are listing Booker as the frontrunner for 2020, but Booker is tainted by the 2016 loss as well as his ties to New Jersey drug companies. (This definitely won't help him in New Hampshire, which is going through a major drug abuse crisis).
     
  3. TheAllTimeGreatest Well-Known Member

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    Plus, the debate he had with Bobby Jindal showed some of his vulnerabilities in facing off with the sitting Vice President.
     
  4. Amadeus Well-Known Member

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    After Biden ruled out a 2020 candidacy just days ago, a recent Gallup poll shows Booker leading his fellow Democrats with 20% to Sanders' 17%. Harris has 10%, while Warren is at 8%. A 3% margin is not good for a frontrunner, and I feel that Booker could easily meet the same fate Bayh met in 2008: an early lead easily upset by a more smooth and charismatic challenger with a stronger appeal to the party base. Only time will tell who that challeger will be, but I don't think Booker is going to be our next President.
     
  5. TheAllTimeGreatest Well-Known Member

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    Elizabeth Warren just announced a few days ago an exploratory committee. How’d you think she would do?
     
  6. Amadeus Well-Known Member

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    She has strong working class appeal, but she's easy to caricacture as too liberal. She could beat Jindal if the economy takes a hit by election day, and she definitely would win if Trump goes third party, but if the economy remains strong and the conservatives are unitied then Jindal would win barring any major screw ups.
     
  7. TheAllTimeGreatest Well-Known Member

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    I gotta ask: what have been, in your opinion, some of the major political upsets of the past few years, barring presidential elections. For me, some include John James bearing Debbie Stabenow this last cycle, Kevin Faulconer defeating Gavin Newsom this past cycle for Governor of California, and Michael Huffington beating Dianne Feinstein for his Senate seat in 1994.
     
  8. Amadeus Well-Known Member

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    OOC: Would Senator Huffington come out as bisexual? Or would he keep his orientation a secret while in office? His decision would certainly have an impact on his politcal career, both at the state and national level.
     
  9. TheAllTimeGreatest Well-Known Member

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    OOC: I think he would choose to come out while he is in office, but I don’t think it would hurt him at the state level. I would believe ITTL that California Republicans are more moderate than their national counterparts. Plus, the national GOP could seize it as an opportunity to expand their reach to the LGBT community.
     
  10. Amadeus Well-Known Member

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    OOC: Maybe, but he'd encounter a huge amount of bigotry - especially from the Southern Republicans who control the Senate and dominate the GOP's conservative base. He'd have no chance as a presidential candidate, and Helms, Gramm, and Lott would work to limit his power in the Senate. 1998 was a very different politcal environment from 2018, if Huffington were to come out the same time as OTL that wouldn't help his prospects. Today it wouldn't matter but unfortunately it did then.
     
  11. TheAllTimeGreatest Well-Known Member

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    OOC: Would it be more plausible to have it remain a secret and then have him come out later? I still believe that at the state level, especially in an election year, Huffington might not have too much of an issue with reelection.
     
  12. Amadeus Well-Known Member

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    OOC: It's possible that it might come out as a result of his divorce, but since he is celibate and California is a socially liberal state I think he would have a chance at re-election in 2000.

    I wonder, if Obama had won in 2012, who would be President now? Would the GOP have been able to make a comeback after eight years of Obama? Or would Biden pull off the victory he couldn't in OTL?
     
  13. TheAllTimeGreatest Well-Known Member

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    OOC: Sounds good to me.

    It depends on the economy. If Obama was able to turn around the country after the recession, Biden might have won, but it also begs the question of who would’ve run?

    I heard that the contingency plan in case Romney lost was to have a robust field in 2016. They were trying to tap people like Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, Ted Cruz, and Claudine Schneider to run for President, among a whole list of other people.
     
  14. dbakes994 Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of Paris, I can't help but think that Romney is to America right now what Jacques Chirac was to France during his presidency. Make of that what you will.
     
  15. Nazi Space Spy Well-Known Member

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    OOC: Fascinating DBWI! I noticed earlier that there was some confusion over Lincoln Chafee’s role in the 2008 election - may I suggest Ron Paul as an alternative third party candidate? It’d energize the then nascent Tea Party movement, which could be the seeds of the OTL Trump movement. With Romney’s presidency nearing its end, it would certainly set up an interesting 2020 dynamic!
     
  16. Amadeus Well-Known Member

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    I think Biden would've lost to Rubio, but he could've beaten Cruz.

    I agree. The left has many problems with Romney, but at least he keeps the far right at bay while enacting watered down versions of progressive policies like the minimum wage hike or the climate accords. Liberals would certainly prefer Romney to Ted Cruz, who probably would've gotten the 2016 GOP nomination had Obama won in 2012.
     
  17. TheAllTimeGreatest Well-Known Member

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    That’s why Romney was able to appeal to so many voters for his first election. There’s a reason Republicans we’re able to get a net gain of 5 seats in the Senate in 2012 (won 8 but lost 3), it’s because he was able to appeal to many moderate Democrats and independent voters in stages like Montana, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Virginia, states that Republicans won in 2012.

    Also, with Biden, they say he could’ve only beaten more conservative candidates like Cruz. Rubio appealed to many more people, Schneider appealed to the women voters, but many saw her as just a bit too liberal a Republican to appeal to their usual base.
     
  18. TheAllTimeGreatest Well-Known Member

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    OOC: I thought Ron Paul was more of a libertarian than a Tea Partiest.
     
  19. Amadeus Well-Known Member

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    OOC: It's his son Rand who is more of a Tea Partier (Tea Partiest? Tea Partian? Whatever you're supposed to call them).
     
  20. TheAllTimeGreatest Well-Known Member

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    New topic: any Governor races that shocked anyone?