DBWI: Less Democratic/More Dictatorial Soviet Union

I currently have an idea for a dystopia timeline which hinges on the USSR taking a more dictatorial and totalitarian turn. Whilst the USSR was certainly an authoritarian political dictatorship during its early decades, what I have in mind would go much further than that. What I'm aiming for is almost like a left-wing version of fascism, so it wouldn't be enough to just derail the democratisation and liberalisation of the 30s and 40s. We're talking few, if any, internal checks and balances, mass purges, violent crackdowns on dissidents to an extent far beyond OTL, personality cults, etc.

The obvious choice would be to go with the old Red Bonaparte military coup trope that everyone and their mother writing a dystopian USSR TL likes to fall back on, but I want to steer clear from that for a number of reasons (mostly because it's trite and overdone, has little evidence of actually being that much of a possibility, and probably wouldn't have developed the sort of totalitarian structures I have in mind). Any suggestions?

Some things to consider:

  • How is this going to affect the world Communist movement. Would the Comintern parties tolerate a major backslide by the USSR, or, especially given how libertarian some of the factions in the 3rd International were, could it lead to outright splits? Perhaps a 4th International headed by Zinoviev?
  • Another thing to consider is the possible butterflies this could bring up for US-Soviet relations. Whilst considerations of Realpolitik and political economy are arguably more important, the Soviet Union's democratic credentials were a key factor in securing popular support for the US to lean towards the Soviet Union and against the Empires once they started flexing their muscles on the global stage. A dictatorial Soviet Union would have been a much harder sell IMO.
  • How would a permanently dictatorial USSR affect the development of the so-called strong and guided democracies, such as Spain, Italy, Hungary, Portugal, France, and to a lesser extent the UK?
  • How would this affect the struggle for civil rights within the USSR, as well as their support for oppressed struggles outside their borders? In particular LGBT rights, anti-racism and anti-colonialism, and press freedom.
 
Avoid the rise of Bukharin or even Stalin. Bukharin was a bad politician, but he had good policy, and after Stalin was died, Bukharin reinforced Stalin's NEP and made it permanent Soviet policy. If Stalin hadn't died of a heart attack in '28, Stalin would probably implement NEP, but not at the same level as Bukharin, and it could lead to the NEP being weaker. Rather than permanent state capitalism, we'd have some returns to communism.
 
A dictatorial USSR would probably cause a right shift in US politics. The continuing US-USSR friendship led to US politics taking a general left shift.

Would a surviving Stalin had continued the Soviet isolation policy, or would he have been forced to open up.
 
A dictatorial USSR would probably cause a right shift in US politics. The continuing US-USSR friendship led to the "Popular Front", becoming a major third party in the US, and for US politics to take a general left shift.

OOC: Well shit, this is already ASB. I think what is possible is Soviet business friendliness to the GOP, but a third party is too late by 1928.

Would a surviving Stalin had continued the Soviet isolation policy, or would he have been forced to open up.

I think he'd be similar to Bukharin, but would ultimately be less successful in making the NEP entrenched in the USSR.
 
OOC: Well shit, this is already ASB. I think what is possible is Soviet business friendliness to the GOP, but a third party is too late by 1928.

OOC: Whilst 1928 might be too late for a new party, it isn't that far off for a potential PoD to say the seeds for a new party. Bear in mind that in 1924 the Progressive Party received almost 5 million votes, whilst the CPPA had had several opportunities to try and establish an independent political party, but didn't.

Would a surviving Stalin had continued the Soviet isolation policy, or would he have been forced to open up.

Whilst it would be interesting to speculate on an earlier opening up of the Soviet Union, I feel that any effects would be rather moot due to external events, especially once Hindenburg stepped down as President of Germany. Something that would be interesting, however, would be the effect of a stronger Stalin on the career of Kirov. If I'm not mistaken he got his start in Soviet politics as a Stalin supporter during the dictatorial period. If Stalin was in ascension then it stands to reason that his supporters would also receive a boost. Would be interesting to see where he would have ended up.
 
I currently have an idea for a dystopia timeline which hinges on the USSR taking a more dictatorial and totalitarian turn. Whilst the USSR was certainly an authoritarian political dictatorship during its early decades, what I have in mind would go much further than that. What I'm aiming for is almost like a left-wing version of fascism, so it wouldn't be enough to just derail the democratisation and liberalisation of the 30s and 40s. We're talking few, if any, internal checks and balances, mass purges, violent crackdowns on dissidents to an extent far beyond OTL, personality cults, etc.

The obvious choice would be to go with the old Red Bonaparte military coup trope that everyone and their mother writing a dystopian USSR TL likes to fall back on, but I want to steer clear from that for a number of reasons (mostly because it's trite and overdone, has little evidence of actually being that much of a possibility, and probably wouldn't have developed the sort of totalitarian structures I have in mind). Any suggestions?

Some things to consider:

  • How is this going to affect the world Communist movement. Would the Comintern parties tolerate a major backslide by the USSR, or, especially given how libertarian some of the factions in the 3rd International were, could it lead to outright splits? Perhaps a 4th International headed by Zinoviev?
  • Another thing to consider is the possible butterflies this could bring up for US-Soviet relations. Whilst considerations of Realpolitik and political economy are arguably more important, the Soviet Union's democratic credentials were a key factor in securing popular support for the US to lean towards the Soviet Union and against the Empires once they started flexing their muscles on the global stage. A dictatorial Soviet Union would have been a much harder sell IMO.
  • How would a permanently dictatorial USSR affect the development of the so-called strong and guided democracies, such as Spain, Italy, Hungary, Portugal, France, and to a lesser extent the UK?
  • How would this affect the struggle for civil rights within the USSR, as well as their support for oppressed struggles outside their borders? In particular LGBT rights, anti-racism and anti-colonialism, and press freedom.

It's possible that the guided democracies under Laval in France, Pais in Portugal and Balbo in Italy(once Mussolini died in that plane crash in 1948 and the de-Fascistization program began) might be veer into full Fascism with a greater Red Scare, we might not even have a de-Fascistization program.

We would also not have Eugene Debs' birthday be a national holiday for the working class in the US. Politically, we might not have Upton Sinclair win governorship of California and Norman Thomas win his seat in cognress.
 
OOC: Whilst 1928 might be too late for a new party, it isn't that far off for a potential PoD to say the seeds for a new party. Bear in mind that in 1924 the Progressive Party received almost 5 million votes, whilst the CPPA had had several opportunities to try and establish an independent political party, but didn't.

.

It's possible that the guided democracies under Laval in France, Pais in Portugal and Balbo in Italy(once Mussolini died in that plane crash in 1948 and the de-Fascistization program began) might be veer into full Fascism with a greater Red Scare, we might not even have a de-Fascistization program.

We would also not have Eugene Debs' birthday be a national holiday for the working class in the US. Politically, we might not have Upton Sinclair win governorship of California and Norman Thomas win his seat in cognress.

OOC: Perhaps these could be merged. That "Popular Front" idea I had wasn't simply a fully socialist or communist, but an alliance of left leaning parties, ranging from progressives, various kinds of socialists, to Anarchists.
Anyway...

IC: I think a dictatorial USSR would prolong the conflict in China, since it was the intervention of Litinov that allowed an armistice between the KMT and Communist parties.
 
OOC: Perhaps these could be merged. That "Popular Front" idea I had wasn't simply a fully socialist or communist, but an alliance of left leaning parties, ranging from progressives, various kinds of socialists, to Anarchists.

OOC: Sounds to me like the Northern Democratic Party to an extent.

IC: Might we not see a New Deal? IOTL, FDR copied many socialistic ideas, ranging as far as the public ownership of multiple rivers' dams (OOC: IOTL, FDR only really made the TVA, although he thought of making a few others). I think we may see no New Deal whatsoever without the partial inspiration of the USSR.
 
I'm a little confused by this AHC. I assume you know what the word soviet means. The concept of a soviet is antithetical to dictatorial rule. The greater threat is the paralysis of government by one committee after another.
 
I wonder if there would be a bloodier Eurasian war with a dictatorial soviet union. Maybe the US helps the Mittleuropean Alliance instead of the Soviets? Maybe Soviets are main aggressor? Could all of Europe have formed one super alliance rather than just sending aid to the Restored Reich?

In OTL we had The Restored Reich and its Mittleuropean Alliance(Yugoslavia, Romania, Czechoslovakia, German puppet in Poland, Hungary) allied with Japan attacking the USSR at the same time in the Eurasian War in 1942 after the Germany-Polish war to recover Danzig, they got quite a bit of aid from the Guided democracies and the US under Wallace helped the USSR with its lend-lease. This set the stage for the ongoing Cold War between the US-USSR alliance and the New Entente(Guided Democracies + UK)

I also wonder to what extent would Huey Long's Share Our Wealth Programs be accepted if the Soviets were much more dictatorial, and how many states would try to emulate. Through he was quite autocratic in some ways, maybe a dictatorial USSR could resemble his governorship?

OOC: Hitler dosen't come to power, but dies in the Beer Hall Putch, Schleicher does in 1933 and forms a monarchofascist government to keep KPD out. Austria is still annexed, but no Sudentenland or Munich agreement. Schleicher and the Kaiser agreed to relinquish claims to Alase-Lorriane in exchange for recognition of Germany's claims over the Polish territories and Danzig by Entente.
 
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I'm a little confused by this AHC. I assume you know what the word soviet means. The concept of a soviet is antithetical to dictatorial rule. The greater threat is the paralysis of government by one committee after another.

What's in a name? Greece calls itself a Republic.

I wonder if there would be a bloodier Eurasian war with a dictatorial soviet union. Maybe the US helps the Mittleuropean Alliance instead of the Soviets? Maybe Soviets are main aggressor? Could all of Europe have formed one super alliance rather than just sending aid to the Restored Reich?

In OTL we had The Restored Reich and its Mittleuropean Alliance(Yugoslavia, Romania, Czechoslovakia, German puppet in Poland, Hungary) allied with Japan attacking the USSR at the same time in the Eurasian War in 1942 after the Germany-Polish war to recover Danzig, they got quite a bit of aid from the Guided democracies and the US under Wallace helped the USSR with its lend-lease. This set the stage for the ongoing Cold War between the US-USSR alliance and the New Entente(Guided Democracies + UK)

I also wonder to what extent would Huey Long's Share Our Wealth Programs be accepted if the Soviets were much more dictatorial, and how many states would try to emulate. Through he was quite autocratic in some ways, maybe a dictatorial USSR could resemble his governorship?

OOC: Hitler dosen't come to power, but dies in the Beer Hall Putch, Schleicher does in 1933 and forms a monarchofascist government to keep KPD out. Austria is still annexed, but no Sudentenland or Munich agreement. Schleicher and the Kaiser agreed to relinquish claims to Alase-Lorriane in exchange for recognition of Germany's claims over the Polish territories and Danzig by Entente.

OOC: Neat. Personally I was angling towards implying a SDP/KDP popular front (due to a more sensible Comintern policy) keeping the Nazis out of power and aligning the Weimar Republic towards a pro-Soviet foreign policy, ultimately preventing WW2 and giving the Soviets space to liberalise and open up without fear of foreign invasion. Your idea is pretty good though.
 
What's in a name? Greece calls itself a Republic.



OOC: Neat. Personally I was angling towards implying a SDP/KDP popular front (due to a more sensible Comintern policy) keeping the Nazis out of power and aligning the Weimar Republic towards a pro-Soviet foreign policy, ultimately preventing WW2 and giving the Soviets space to liberalise and open up without fear of foreign invasion. Your idea is pretty good though.

OOC: Are you doing a TL or something with this idea?
 
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