DBWI: LBJ Does Not Seek Reelection in 1968

In the 1968 elections, Richard Nixon scored a landslide victory over President Lyndon B. Johnson. The results were as follows

Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew (R): 54% PV, 434 EV
Lyndon B. Johnson/Hubert H. Humphrey (D): 30%, 38 EV
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay (AI): 16%, 46 EV

Nixon's coattails enabled the Republicans to win control of the Senate and come close to winning back the House.

What if LBJ decided not to seek reelection that year? Would Vice President Humphrey been able to defeat Nixon? (Note: Humphrey would have had enough delegates to clinch the nomination without running in a primary)

Also, would Wallace still revive the American Independent (later renamed Patriot) Party in 1970 and lead it to winning seats in that year's Congressional elections? And would there still have been a Progressive Democratic Party which was founded IOTL in 1974?
 
I think if LBJ had stepped out of the race, Humphery would have had chaos on his hands. President Johnson had enough control to at least keep the radicals on the fringes and to play peacemaker with the crew that showed up in Chicago at that year`s DNC. Imagine the violence had Johnson not told Daly to pull back the police from the protesters?

Another point has to be if Johnson had bailed, who besides HHH would have stepped in to run? McCarthy was a well meaning anti-war candidate, but you saw how he did against Nixon in 72. I doubt Robert Kennedy was ready to go in 68, but byhis election in 76, he had both the name and the legislative resume that he needed to whitewash the GOP.
 
Humphrey likely would have been the nominee, though I wouldn't discard the possibility that we could also see RFK run eight years earlier TTL, and quite possibly win -- if we assume LBJ sees that an increasing number of Democrats were unhappy with him, it's quite possible this cadre of reformists could back a Johnson-outsider, and you couldn't do better than Kennedy in that respect.

Whether Jack's brother could beat Nixon in 68 is another matter (though AAR he'd do better than LBJ). Though a "second Camelot" in the earlier in the 1970's is an interesting thought... :rolleyes:

EDIT ADD: Oh, and if nobody could bring up the "Tet is a Bigger Deal" TL, that'd be great -- sorry, but I always get upset that someone thought fit to kill my favorite President 13 years earlier for the heck of it...
 
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You have to remember that party organization controlled the convention in 1968. so I think the Vice President would have worked with party leaders to get the nomination. I think that HHH would have come out of the closet as an anti war candidate united the Democratic Party and beat Nixon.
 
I think that HHH would have come out of the closet as an anti war candidate united the Democratic Party and beat Nixon.

Maybe -- but wasn't Humphrey well known for his loyalty to Johnson? If LJB finally gives him a chance to run at the top of the ticket, I don't see how that would be lessened. He'd have to walk quite a tightrope...
 
Getting LBJ out the race in the first place could be... dificult, to say the least. I knnow the election results, but Dole ran again in 92 when the odds were stacked against him, even Hoover gave it another go in 1932. I just can't see Jonson's pride allowing him to turn his back on the nomination.

Anyway, let's say that LBJ finds out he has a terminal illness (the only way I see him not running and even that's a stretch), then I think you're probably all write about the party bosses lining up behind HHH. That's not asured though and I think the McCarthy campaign would be a bigger issue for Humphrey ITTL 68.

TBH I can't see much else changing apart from that-Nixon still gets his Landslide, if anything he may win Bigger here.

I agree with whoever said Humphrey would be walking the tightrope and it'd be pretty easy for Nixon to say that HHH was simply running for LBJ's second full term.

I don't think RFK would have ran in 1968 either-he didn't IOTL and he doesn't have a good reason to do so here with LBJ out the picture. If he does decide to run for the nomination (and receives it) he'll lose to Nixon, though it'll be a lot closer.

In short, I reccon the Dems are too divided over Vietnam at this point to win with any candidate.
 
no but r.f.k would of won.

humphrey being the vice president would not of been able to defeat richard nixon. however had robert kennedy ran in 1968 he would of won unless siran sirhah shoots him instead of governer rockerfeller. its a miracle mr. rockefeller pulled through and survived. if Robert kennedy had run in 1968 instead of running in 1976. we would of had jimmy carter elected president in 1976 and reagan would of beated him in a landslide.Bobby would of defeated nixon in 1968 like he did gerald ford in 1976 . and reagan in 1980.:eek:
 
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Unlike the "President Stagflation" image he has today, Bobby was looked upon quite fondly in '68. He could have won the election I think, by a frog's hair.
If Nixon doesn't win could John Connally remain a Democrat? No Connally in the WH also might mean a very different Oil Crisis...
 
True Humphrey was loyal to Johnson, but if it ment winning the election he would have made public his doubts about the war.
 
As much as we fondly remember Eugene McCarthy, we have to recognize that the anti-war crowd only unified behind him because there was no real option except Johnson. If Gene was the candidate of the Dems, Nixon would pull back on some of his old red scare bit and appeal to his "silent majority" 4 years sooner.

And we have to look at President Johnson as really shooting his own campaign in the foot by refusing to debate Nixon. The "Americans know where I stand. They can either stand with me or Dick Nixon" line showed that Johnson was out of touch with the majority of Americans and his Civil Rights record simply opened the door for Wallace and LeMay to shatter the solid south for 20 years.
 
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