FieldMarshal
Banned
By mid 1988, the Iran-Iraq War had decisively turned against the Iranians. A growing faction in the Iranian government and military, led by parliament chairman Rafsanjani, attempted to sway Grand Ayatollah Khomenei into accepting the UN ceasefire proposal. Khomenei, however, insisted on continuing the fight, believing that an eventual defeat of Iraq was still possible.
What might have happened had Khomenei accepted the ceasefire? Certainly, if the Iran-Iraq War had ended earlier the Tehran Chemical Attack and the black stain that it continues to leave on the Iranian psyche would have been averted. In the same vein, Iraq might not have become so politically isolated - the US and the USSR were both heavily backing Saddam against Iran, but the mass public outcry after Tehran got gassed led them to cut ties.
However, I think the Iranian Civil War would likely still have occurred. The Islamic Republic was never entirely stable to begin with, with numerous factions competing for power within the government. Khomenei was already on his last legs (I've seen a few estimates that even if he hadn't died in the chemical strike, his heart was so bad that he'd have been lucky to last until 1990) and with the USSR and Iraq right next door arming leftist militants like Tudeh and the MEK, the Civil War, the rise of the People's Republic, the Russian intervention, and the ensuing Soviet domination of the Persian Gulf seems to have been near inevitable.
What do you think?
What might have happened had Khomenei accepted the ceasefire? Certainly, if the Iran-Iraq War had ended earlier the Tehran Chemical Attack and the black stain that it continues to leave on the Iranian psyche would have been averted. In the same vein, Iraq might not have become so politically isolated - the US and the USSR were both heavily backing Saddam against Iran, but the mass public outcry after Tehran got gassed led them to cut ties.
However, I think the Iranian Civil War would likely still have occurred. The Islamic Republic was never entirely stable to begin with, with numerous factions competing for power within the government. Khomenei was already on his last legs (I've seen a few estimates that even if he hadn't died in the chemical strike, his heart was so bad that he'd have been lucky to last until 1990) and with the USSR and Iraq right next door arming leftist militants like Tudeh and the MEK, the Civil War, the rise of the People's Republic, the Russian intervention, and the ensuing Soviet domination of the Persian Gulf seems to have been near inevitable.
What do you think?