The Kalmar Union was not always the Switzerland of the North it is today. For some time Sweden and Norway both tried to retain their independence from Denmark. While in our timeline this led to the Dual Monarchy Agreement in Stockholm, what if the Agreement isn't signed by Sweden and/or Denmark? Could the Union still survive? How would this effect the German War(s)?
DBWI: Kalmar Union Breaks Up?
- Thread starter ThatOneGuy
- Start date
Denmark and Sweden would decline: Denmark by itself is too small and too close to Germany to avoid falling in the sphere of influence of whatever German state will end up owning Bremen and Hamburg, and Sweden is cut off from the Atlantic Ocean by Denmark itself and Norway, and will therefore be hit hard by the "discovery" of the American continent and the shift in trade priorities; Norway, being where it is, will be the one Scandinavian state to reap all the benefits of trans-Atlantic trade, but without the population and the resources of the rest of the North, I doubt they'll be able to keep OTL New Sweden and claim Vinland - not to mention all those small Caribbean islands - for themselves.
I wonder how Poland-Lithuania would have been affected by a break-up of the Kalmar Union.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Eh, they might still win by default thanks to Osman II's invasions and the resulting liberation of the Hussite Principality of Bohemia and gutting of the Eastern Habsburgs following the lose of Vienna (assuming the Muslim conquests don't result in the Reformers making a temporary truce with the Papists to counter the advances as some of the more moderate cardinals were suggesting, though I doubt that suggestion would pass well give the previous century of bad blood and religious oppression), but it would end up with a far weaker presence of the Lutheran tradition vs. the Calvanists in the Evangelical Union than IOTL. The leadership of the Danes in organizing the Council of Mecklenburg to help codify the core Lutheran tenants of all state churches and co-or donating the otherwise divided military forces under High King Christian and the drill and organizational reforms his "Crown Guard" of mercenaries-on-retainer turned into Europe's first proper permeantly standing national army was key in molding them into a force capable of out-fighting the numerically and financially superior Spainish-Catholic forces. The best alternative source of those innovations would be the Calvinist Dutch, which would lead to them gaining not only political-religious influence in the Germanies but also displace the rising Lutheran merchant class of the Hansa.
Maybe the Baltic Confederation would have been allowed actual independence rather than simply being a puppet of Scandinavia to be later annexed.
Uh, weaker divided Scandinavians - much better chance for Poland Lithuania to win Dominium Maris Balticii
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Please. Without strong external forces pressing down on it from multiple sides the natural internal pressures from within PL among the Sejem and all its petty "Golden Liberties", to say nothing of having non-dyanstic monarchs who had no motivation to strengthen the position of their heirs, would have made it next to impossible for the Kings to consoldiate power. Adding more minor dutchies and an even greater number of petty nobility would just end up a net negative. Kalmar may have been the victorious rival in the exchange, but like Carthage did for Rome the existance/competition was a vital part in convincing the Sejem to grant key powers to the centeral government and allow otherwise politically impossible reforms in the name of security and not getting completely overwhelmed economically that, in the long run, would prove so vital in allowing PL to weather the political and economic changes of the 18th century in a way Muscovy never could.
That brings up a interesting question. Without Kalmar to counter them, could the Russian dukes unite the Rus faster than they did OTL, maybe with less outside interference? If they did the Russians would be able to have a port of the Baltic and their long held goal of a warm water port would be realized. I heard rumors that Duke Peter wanted to level Nyenshantz and replace it with a whole new city, make that his capital and then use it as a springboard into European trade. If that actually happened it would have been a major upset of the delicate balance between Kalmar and the PLC.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
If it results in a weaker PL as I subscribe to, as opposed to a a stronger one like marcin suggests, than it's possible. I suppose that would depend on the butterflies that hit the Khanate of Sibr and if they can strike up good relations with whomever takes up the Arctic and Baltic trade. I don't know if the Ottoman vassals alone would be enough to keep them down (Indeed, it might drive the Rus into Peter's arms if the more secure Muscovy can provide protection from Tartar raids).