DBWI: Julius Caesar survived or win The Battle of Alesia

Dolan

Banned
The Battle of Alesia has been credited to be the major turning point of Roman Expansion, while marking the rise of Gallic Empire under Arvernic Dynasty, in which Vercingetorix and his descendants dominate the Gallic, Germanic, and Northern Italy for more than a century.

It was said that between the need to Avenge both Crassus' and Caesar's deaths, Gaius Pompeius Magnus choose to went to conquer the East while the less experienced Cato were elected to led the concurrent reprisal against Vercingetorix. This led into disaster as Vercingetoric managed to roll the Roman Army under Cato and pressed deep into North Italy. Forcing Pompeii to hastily withdrawn from the east to relieve Rome from Gallic siege. But then the Ptolemaic Egypt, Lusitania and Numidia sensed Roman Weakness and took away Syria and Anatolia, Iberia, and Roman North Africa.

Rome as a political entity survived the ordeal, albeit being reduced to Central and South Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily, with North Italy returned to become their frontier region against the now (ironically) romanized and organized Gauls.

Many did said Caesar's fate was sealed when he was sandwiched between the besieged Forteess-Town of Alesia, and the incoming Gallic reinforcement that moves to relieve the besieged Fortress-Town. His attempt to built two layers of siege walls actually made his forces getting caught in the middle, and only a small group of Cavalry under Marc Anthony survived the battle.

Now, what if Caesar, recognizing the futility of the siege, retreat and fight the Gauls another day? Or actually made the double wall quicker and already prepared to be sandwiched?
 

Hecatee

Donor
It really depends on the scenario. If it is a retreat and keep fighting scenario, then Caesar may well win by attrition because Vercingetorix has only failures to show and the leaders of the liberation army might well fight for supreme command : on faction could ally with Caesar and crush the other... On the other hand would Caesar remain in command in such a scenario coming so soon after Gergovia ? I mean, while he did have a strong political capital he did not have strong finances, and here we could be in a scenario where the lack of funds hamper him and forces him back to Rome in shame... Could this lead to a white peace status quo ante bellum situation, which opens the way for the gallic civil war and a later roman intervention when Gaul is at the lowest ?

In case of a full victory at Alesia however, the situation would be very different : with the head of the Gallic defense forces submitting to Caesar and large amounts of warriors dead, captured or dispersed with low morale, Caesar is free to turn back to Roman politics while leaving subordinate lead mop up operations and hold Gaul. It really depends on when he wins this battle and whether his daughter Julia, wife of Pompey, is still alive... If not it could be the straw that breaks the back of the alliance between the two men, and Caesar's return to Rome could be the start of a roman civil war...
 

Skallagrim

Banned
Caesar doesn't become a symbol of Late Republican over-confidence? I suppose that distinction goes to Crassus alone here, and "Like Crassus in Parthia and Caesar in Gaul" doesn't become an expression denoting military hubris and self-destructive hunger for glory.

Either way, Caesar has bought himself a year, or maybe a few years. Then he gets crushed by Pompeius anyway. The Triumvirate had already collapsed, when Caesar's daughter (married to Pompeius) died giving birth and when Crassus died at Carrhae. it was now only a matter of time before Pompeius and the Optimates moved to side-line Caesar-- and most likely kill him. Caesar's only option would be either foreign exile or an all-or-nothing gamble against Pompeius.

Let's be honest: Caesar wouldn't stand a chance. Winning at Alesia gives him a better reputation and a slightly longer life, but that's it. By the time of the battle, it was already a given that Pompeius would eventually be acclaimed Dictator in Perpetuity. Whether in a foreign field or closer to home, Caesar was just fated to become one of the many victims of the Republic's violent death throes.
 

Hecatee

Donor
Let's be honest: Caesar wouldn't stand a chance. Winning at Alesia gives him a better reputation and a slightly longer life, but that's it. By the time of the battle, it was already a given that Pompeius would eventually be acclaimed Dictator in Perpetuity. Whether in a foreign field or closer to home, Caesar was just fated to become one of the many victims of the Republic's violent death throes.

Not so sure... A victory in Gaul would bring a lot of gold to use for bribes, and Caesar was half a decade younger than Pompey, and had more recent military experience whereas Pompey had been living in luxury for years, delegating all tasks to his officers and not campaigning as he should have...
Beside don't forget Pompey never crushed Sertorius who could claim to "teach the cub" until killed by traitors, and Caesar was a much better commander than Sertorius ever was... He'd also have the advantage of already formed units under his command while they were none in Italy able to fight him. So overall I do give Caesar more chances than you do
 
Caesar had indeed some chances win Pompeius and Cato. Caesar was more capable and understand strategy very well unlike Pompeius. He wasn't totally terrible military commander but not anymore that what he was during Spartacus' slave revolt. And Cato was just pure moron. Caesar had too several alliance and quiet good alliance network. And you can't find more loyal legions than what Caesar had.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
Not so sure... A victory in Gaul would bring a lot of gold to use for bribes, and Caesar was half a decade younger than Pompey, and had more recent military experience whereas Pompey had been living in luxury for years, delegating all tasks to his officers and not campaigning as he should have...
Beside don't forget Pompey never crushed Sertorius who could claim to "teach the cub" until killed by traitors, and Caesar was a much better commander than Sertorius ever was... He'd also have the advantage of already formed units under his command while they were none in Italy able to fight him. So overall I do give Caesar more chances than you do

I don't buy it. Building Caesar up too much is just like Hannibal-worship. It begs the question: if he was so great, then why did he lose?

I'll grant that Caesar was a far more capable and innovative tactician than Pompeius, but that very reliance on daring and bold moves is what cost him everything at Alesia. Pomeius, by contrast, was simply very diligent. A conservative commander, but one whjo used his forces well and outplayed his enemies every time. He didn't get three triumphs by twiddling his thumbs! And don't forget: Pompeius was never once decisively defeated in any battle of his long career. Clearly, a conservative approach was rewarding in the end; moreso than Caesar's tendency towards bold experimentalism.

Regarding Sertorius, we must note that pompeius had waged a highly succesful campaign of attrition against him. Sertorius, too, was a better tactician-- but Pompeius defeated him strategically. It's not like Sertorius lost because he was betrayed by his men; his men betrayed him because he was losing. Indeed, by 72 BC, his forces were demoralised, his army suffered from major defections, and his overall situation was getting desperate. Exactly as Pompeius had intended. Against another "flashy" opponent with a reliance on tactical bravado -- i.e. Caesar -- we can be sure Pompeius would do the same thing. Caesar had exceptionally loyal forces, but Pompeius had far greater numbers and far deeper coffers. He could wait Caesar out.


Caesar had indeed some chances win Pompeius and Cato. Caesar was more capable and understand strategy very well unlike Pompeius. He wasn't totally terrible military commander but not anymore that what he was during Spartacus' slave revolt. And Cato was just pure moron. Caesar had too several alliance and quiet good alliance network. And you can't find more loyal legions than what Caesar had.

I must disagree. As I have noted above, Pompeius was a far superior strategist. Caesar excelled tactically, and as I've argued, that surely wouldn't win him the war.

Cato, of course, was by this point a non-entity. He embodied the failures of the dying Republic, and no matter who eventually took absolute power... that person would cast Cato aside like so much rubbish. It's what Pompeius did, and in the hypothetical situation that Caesar gains power, I see him doing the same.
 

Dolan

Banned
Not so sure... A victory in Gaul would bring a lot of gold to use for bribes, and Caesar was half a decade younger than Pompey, and had more recent military experience whereas Pompey had been living in luxury for years, delegating all tasks to his officers and not campaigning as he should have...
Beside don't forget Pompey never crushed Sertorius who could claim to "teach the cub" until killed by traitors, and Caesar was a much better commander than Sertorius ever was... He'd also have the advantage of already formed units under his command while they were none in Italy able to fight him. So overall I do give Caesar more chances than you do
Keep in mind that Pompey was actually rather successful in his eastern campaign after Caesar's death, which only abandoned due to Cato's Gallic campaign being a complete disaster.

He was literally forced to move back ASAP by Vercingetorix sacking North Italy and laid siege against Rome. Abandoning Roman Provinces of Asia Minor to Artavasdes II of Armenia (which was a Roman ally).

Pompey was said to literally saved Rome from almost being fallen into Vercingetorix's vengeance, and he was then granted the power of Dictator in Perpetuity for his outstanding service. Roman Provinces outside of Italy, Sicily, and Sardinia still crumbled, but it was said that Pompey managed to save Rome from being a complete Ruin.
 

Hecatee

Donor
Pompey was a great organizer but not decisive enough. Caesar showed that if anything else he could roll the dice and act on the result. That's why I think he may tumble Pompey, maybe falling on Rome before Pompey even manage to leave Italy.
Now indeed Caesar got crushed at Alesia, so we won't know. The scale of the odds he faced might explain things too : few generals since the Thermopylae ever faced such odds ! What was it, one against 10 ? Sure his defeat was on a scale with Canae or Arausio, but his odds were terribly worse. Who could have believed the relief force could muster so many men ?
 

Dolan

Banned
Now indeed Caesar got crushed at Alesia, so we won't know. The scale of the odds he faced might explain things too : few generals since the Thermopylae ever faced such odds ! What was it, one against 10 ? Sure his defeat was on a scale with Canae or Arausio, but his odds were terribly worse. Who could have believed the relief force could muster so many men ?
The surviving journal of Julius Caesar himself, ostensibly carried by Mark Anthony as per Caesar's last will, indeed shown that Caesar had 11 Legions under him with 10000 Auxiliary bringing his hypothetical full strength to 65000 but most modern approximation will said 60000 as more reasonable strength. If he is indeed faithful, the 80000 besieged Gauls inside of the Fortress already shown that his attempt to besiege them is indeed a huge gamble at best, and a foolishness at worst (modern estimate actually said the numbers of besieged actually include everyone and Vercingetorix's proper warriors being numbered about 20000).

Sure enough, when 320000 strong relief force under Sedulos being spotted (modern estimate actually said something numbering 160000 is more realistic), any sane general would then prefer to just pack up and retreat, but Caesar somehow prefer to build a Contravallation after the previous Circumvallation, correctly guessing that the relief force would be made of almost entirely lightly armed levied troops armed only with spear and shield, but then he forgot that those relief force will use the road very ironically made by the Romans and thus arrive faster than his prediction.

The odds are either 60000 vs 400000 (Caesar's Journal), or 60000 vs 180000 (lowest modern estimate). Yet even with the Gauls being mostly more lightly armed and armored, that kind of odd is something that is nothing to sneeze at, even with the lowest estimate for Gallic strength.

At least Caesar did accept his own gamble and died fighting, that should be something, at least.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
Pompey was a great organizer but not decisive enough. Caesar showed that if anything else he could roll the dice and act on the result. That's why I think he may tumble Pompey, maybe falling on Rome before Pompey even manage to leave Italy.
Now indeed Caesar got crushed at Alesia, so we won't know. The scale of the odds he faced might explain things too : few generals since the Thermopylae ever faced such odds ! What was it, one against 10 ? Sure his defeat was on a scale with Canae or Arausio, but his odds were terribly worse. Who could have believed the relief force could muster so many men ?

Well, you can't rule out luck, of course. But when you say "Caesar lost to vastly superior numbers", that kind of makes the case for me: Pompeius also had the superior numbers. If Caesar makes it at Alesia and a civil war erupts between Caesar/Populares and Pompeius/Optimates, then what's stopping Caesar from making yet another "roll of the dice"... only to lose?

He rolled the dice at Alesia. It didn't work out for him.
 
The surviving journal of Julius Caesar himself, ostensibly carried by Mark Anthony as per Caesar's last will, indeed shown that Caesar had 11 Legions under him with 10000 Auxiliary bringing his hypothetical full strength to 65000 but most modern approximation will said 60000 as more reasonable strength. If he is indeed faithful, the 80000 besieged Gauls inside of the Fortress already shown that his attempt to besiege them is indeed a huge gamble at best, and a foolishness at worst (modern estimate actually said the numbers of besieged actually include everyone and Vercingetorix's proper warriors being numbered about 20000).

Sure enough, when 320000 strong relief force under Sedulos being spotted (modern estimate actually said something numbering 160000 is more realistic), any sane general would then prefer to just pack up and retreat, but Caesar somehow prefer to build a Contravallation after the previous Circumvallation, correctly guessing that the relief force would be made of almost entirely lightly armed levied troops armed only with spear and shield, but then he forgot that those relief force will use the road very ironically made by the Romans and thus arrive faster than his prediction.

The odds are either 60000 vs 400000 (Caesar's Journal), or 60000 vs 180000 (lowest modern estimate). Yet even with the Gauls being mostly more lightly armed and armored, that kind of odd is something that is nothing to sneeze at, even with the lowest estimate for Gallic strength.

At least Caesar did accept his own gamble and died fighting, that should be something, at least.
Even your lowest "modern" estimates rely too much on weak primary sources, if we had to guess the numbers based on comparative research or archaeology, I doubt we would able to justify such numbers. I think the overestimation comes especially in the Gaulish side of things.
 

Dolan

Banned
Even your lowest "modern" estimates rely too much on weak primary sources, if we had to guess the numbers based on comparative research or archaeology, I doubt we would able to justify such numbers. I think the overestimation comes especially in the Gaulish side of things.
Well, what we could say is:
a) Caesar seems confident enough to besiege Vercingetorix in Alesia
b) Caesar seems confisent enough to actually attempted building a Contravalation, even if that was unfinished, that mean his scouts must've spotted them for quite some time
c) Said force, after defeating Caesar and looting their arms, end up literally formed the core of the Gallic Army who ransacked North Italy and later besiege Rome, albeit after some time.
 
Keep in mind that Pompey was actually rather successful in his eastern campaign after Caesar's death, which only abandoned due to Cato's Gallic campaign being a complete disaster.

He was literally forced to move back ASAP by Vercingetorix sacking North Italy and laid siege against Rome. Abandoning Roman Provinces of Asia Minor to Artavasdes II of Armenia (which was a Roman ally).

Pompey was said to literally saved Rome from almost being fallen into Vercingetorix's vengeance, and he was then granted the power of Dictator in Perpetuity for his outstanding service. Roman Provinces outside of Italy, Sicily, and Sardinia still crumbled, but it was said that Pompey managed to save Rome from being a complete Ruin.

Rome's near-collapse and its rescue by Pompey ultimately prolonged the Roman state's existence. If the Romans conquered Gaul they would have maxed out 100 years later, failed to enact reforms, and began to collapse entirely like the Han Dynasty due to being overstretched.

Because of Caesar's failure, the regrouped Roman Dominate from Pompey's reign was able to rise from Italy to the rest of the Mediterranean again over the following centuries.
 
In my opinion, Caesar winning at Alesia is nearly ASB. Sure, he was a decent battle commander who had won victories over the Gauls in the past, but his troops had already been shaken by the the constant harassment from Vercingetorix’s cavalry leading up to the battle and his supply lines were shaky at best. This isn’t even mentioning him being severely outnumbered by determined Gallic warriors. I’ve seen multiple posts on here detailing strategies in which he could have won, but it involves a ton of luck and handwaving of events. There’s absolutely no way he could repel Gallic assaults both inside and outside the walls - it was a doomed gambit from the very beginning (but to give him credit, it was certainly creative.)

Basically, I’m not even sure Caesar could win the battle. The best scenario for him would be to withdraw from Gaul with the remainder of his legions, but he would pretty much lose all his credentials and the result would be the same - Pompey taking the mantle of the Republic and defending it from a united Gaul.
 
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