DBWI: Jimmy Carter wins the Democratic nomination in '76?

Could Carter have won the general election

  • Yes

    Votes: 13 44.8%
  • No

    Votes: 16 55.2%

  • Total voters
    29
What would happen if Jimmy Carter, governor of georgia and dark horse in the 1976 democratic nomination, won instead of Mo Udall? Would the Democrats still win the general, and if so, would it be as close as OTL? Could Carter have won Georgia or the South? What do you guys think?

OOC: Mo Udall wins the nod in a Carter-like surprise, and wins the general election in one of the closest elections in US history.
 
What would happen if Jimmy Carter, governor of georgia and dark horse in the 1976 democratic nomination, won instead of Mo Udall? Would the Democrats still win the general, and if so, would it be as close as OTL? Could Carter have won Georgia or the South? What do you guys think?

OOC: Mo Udall wins the nod in a Carter-like surprise, and wins the general election in one of the closest elections in US history.

Udall barely won as it was. Without his charisma and cross-party appeal, I think Ford narrowly carries the day in 1976. Carter would've done better in the South, but he wouldn't have won as many states in the North and West. And as Carter showed when he had his chance in 1984, when he ran to succeed Udall after 8 years as VP, he was an inept campaigner with a bad relationship with the media. So I voted no.
 
I also doubt Carter would win in 1980 either if he were to win in 1976. Udall barely beat a wing nut like Reagan, so I doubt Carter would fare any better.
 
Carter was a mystic and a control nut. I’m sorry, but he really, really was. He did okay as vice-president,

but as president?

Maybe we don’t start addressing the slow decline of the American middle class like Udall did. But this resonated so well with the American public that even if Carter chases other issues, loses himself in the details, i’ve got to think this is part of the Republican primary in 1980, as well as Congressional races.

So, we’ll more agggressively roll on this starting 1981, but we lose some of the long trajectory maybe?
 
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I doubt it.

Short of Ford gaffing(*) big time, I can't see how Carter could pull it off, especially given Ford's better-than-expected performance at the Rallies and Debates.

Though make me wonder how Carter running would change everything else though, since I haven't forgotten that 1982 was when the Republican Party controlled both Houses...


(*) - OOC: As in, Ford never made the Gaffe he made in the Debate concerning there being Soviet Presence in Eastern Europe while he was President, so would appear rather more competent and knowledgeable than he did IOTL at that time.
 
I wonder who Carter would’ve picked to be his running mate if he won the Democratic nomination in 1976. John Glenn, maybe? Walter Mondale (who IOTL was Udall’s AG) seems like a likely choice too.
 
I wonder who Carter would’ve picked to be his running mate if he won the Democratic nomination in 1976. John Glenn, maybe? Walter Mondale (who IOTL was Udall’s AG) seems like a likely choice too.

There were rumors at the time that Carter wanted to pick Frank Church.
 
I had to look up who Jimmy Carter was, but was somewhat surprised to find out that he finished second in the 1976 Democratic primaries, and came within 2% of beating Udall in the New Hampshire primary. I guess if he had won both in New Hampshire on top of his Iowa Caucus victory, he well could have been the nominee. Ironically, in 1984 he came within 2% of winning the New Hampshire primary again but at this point he had been Vice President, was no longer a dark horse, and his campaign fizzled afterwards.

Could Carter have beaten Ford? Udall won the following states by a low enough margin that I could see Ford carrying them due to a relative lack of support for Carter outside of the former Confederate states:

Ohio 0.1% 25
Arizona 0.2% 6
Nevada 0.2% 3
California 0.3% 45
South Dakota 0.5% 4
Maine 1.4% 4
Wisconsin 1.9% 11
Oregon 2.0% 7
Hawaii 2.7% 4
New Jersey 3.0% 17
Washington 3.1% 9
Pennsylvania 3.2% 27

That is 172 electoral votes.

Udall carried Arkansas by 3% of the vote, Missouri and Louisiana by less than 1% of the vote, and Maryland by 3%, but I assume Carter would have carried all three states.

In terms of Ford states, Carter would have picked up his home state of Georgia, where the Udall/ Carter ticket fell short by only 4%, and I can see Carter taking Kentucky (Ford by 2%), North Carolina (Ford by 5%), and Texas (Ford also by 5), but none of the other southern states were really that close. That is 60 electoral votes.

The only way I could see Carter doing it would be with a Carter/ Brown ticket and he somehow still carries California, as well as Washington, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Give him Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Texas and the EV becomes very close, even with losing Ohio and Wisconsin. And I'm not sure how well a Carter/ Brown administration would be received in Washington.
 
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