DBWI: Japan wins at Tsushima

Unlikely, since while the Russians were not exactly a strong naval power; knock-out battles like Trafalgar were rare. Well, let's go with that type of blow-out anyway: It'd completely stuff the Russians options since Japan could've been free to resupply and move material without much worry (as opposed to it being done in bursts) until the Baltic Fleet came to try and dig them out. This would likely have given them the ability to KO Port Macarthur quickly and basically win the war on the ground, since their supply lines were much better than the Russians should they be able to achieve full naval dominance.

So with that in mind, I'd say a Japanese victory in the 1st Russo-Japanese War, rather than the painful draw which led to the spheres of influence the two nations would later on redress in the Great War and the far more decisive 2nd Russo-Japanese War.
 
Agreed, the battle was a bloody draw regardless, the IJN lost a BB and CA whilst the Russians lost 3 old BBs and had the rest shot to hell and back but they did manage to get to port. Whilst in essence the Japanese 'won' by loosing fewer ships, they were losses they could not sustain and they were basically out of money.
 
//This is my first DBWI. It's...weird.//

Unlikely, since while the Russians were not exactly a strong naval power; knock-out battles like Trafalgar were rare. Well, let's go with that type of blow-out anyway: It'd completely stuff the Russians options since Japan could've been free to resupply and move material without much worry (as opposed to it being done in bursts) until the Baltic Fleet came to try and dig them out. This would likely have given them the ability to KO Port Macarthur quickly and basically win the war on the ground, since their supply lines were much better than the Russians should they be able to achieve full naval dominance.

So with that in mind, I'd say a Japanese victory in the 1st Russo-Japanese War, rather than the painful draw which led to the spheres of influence the two nations would later on redress in the Great War and the far more decisive 2nd Russo-Japanese War.

That would definitely mark Japan as a Great Power, and not just another, non-white nation in Britain's pocket. And speaking of Britain the British were very allergic to anything that shifted the balance of power. A new Great Power on the rise, Russia effectively destroyed as a naval power (seeing as the Black Sea Fleet wasn't really much of a threat to anyone apart from the Turks), definitely counts a 'shift' in the BoP. How would they react? And how much could the Japanese extort from the Russians? Sakhalin and Kuril almost certainly, Korea probably, but what else? And how about the rest of the world?
 
//This is my first DBWI. It's...weird.//



That would definitely mark Japan as a Great Power, and not just another, non-white nation in Britain's pocket. And speaking of Britain the British were very allergic to anything that shifted the balance of power. A new Great Power on the rise, Russia effectively destroyed as a naval power (seeing as the Black Sea Fleet wasn't really much of a threat to anyone apart from the Turks), definitely counts a 'shift' in the BoP. How would they react? And how much could the Japanese extort from the Russians? Sakhalin and Kuril almost certainly, Korea probably, but what else? And how about the rest of the world?

The thing is, they really, really, really hated Russia at that time due to the "Great Game" they kept playing in Asia. I imagine that they wouldn't mind there being a new balance of power in Asia, as their main concern was Europe due to the fact that if a powerful continental power came to being, that might be able to strangle the home islands. They however would probably quickly grow to try and counter Japanese Imperialism if it began to interfere with things like the agreements and influences they had in China for example.
 
The thing is, they really, really, really hated Russia at that time due to the "Great Game" they kept playing in Asia. I imagine that they wouldn't mind there being a new balance of power in Asia, as their main concern was Europe due to the fact that if a powerful continental power came to being, that might be able to strangle the home islands. They however would probably quickly grow to try and counter Japanese Imperialism if it began to interfere with things like the agreements and influences they had in China for example.

Well they could always make an agreement with Japan, recognizing Manchuria as a Japanese SOI (and implicitly turning a blind eye to a potential annexation) in exchange for Japan committing against any moves further into China proper. At least, not without a proportionate increase in European influence in China proper of course ;)

Of course, the Russians are really going to be very resentful of losing to an Oriental nation, and the British probably backing the Japanese claims after the war. Though both of those are to be expected: who likes losing? And the British are allied with the Japanese, and Japan gaining Manchuria along with Korea (and Sakhalin and Kuril) effectively blocks further Russian growth into the Pacific. The question though is how it would affect the events of the Great War. IOTL, the Baltic Fleet was instrumental in the steady destruction of the Hochseeflotte, but here the Baltic Fleet wouldn't exist. I doubt Russia has the capability to replace two whole fleets in nine years, and that's just ships. What about men and the officers to command them? And that Russian resentment could prove...divisive, for the Entente.
 
...and the far more decisive 2nd Russo-Japanese War.

Very decisive indeed. The Second Russian Republic still claims the Maritime Province, even if they've given up on Sakhalin and they've recognised Manchuria as part of China. Of course, the Maritime Province is so thick with Japamese settlers that it'll never go back to Russia...
 
Very decisive indeed. The Second Russian Republic still claims the Maritime Province, even if they've given up on Sakhalin and they've recognised Manchuria as part of China. Of course, the Maritime Province is so thick with Japamese settlers that it'll never go back to Russia...

They should consider themselves fortunate they got Khabarovsk back in the first place. After all, the referendum on whether or not the Republic of Khabarovsk would enter the Russian Federation passed by a margin of only FIFTY-TWO per cent, and there are still people these days there that resent how Khabarovsk's affluence has been sapped by the problematic Russian economy.
 
Regarding what might have happened... In some ways, the drawn war worked out OK for Japan long-term. The Russians recognised Korea as being in Japan's Sphere of Influence, but saved face on that score by insisting on Korean independence being guaranteed. OK, the treaties Japan had with Korea up till 1948 gave them massive influence over the peninsula, but the treaty meant they never tried to be too outrageous (or push for annexation, like some Hawks wanted). That, coupled with Japan and Korea fighting on the same side against Russia, led to the situation we have now: Japan and Korea as allies, 'friendly rivals' and regional leaders.
 
Regarding what might have happened... In some ways, the drawn war worked out OK for Japan long-term. The Russians recognised Korea as being in Japan's Sphere of Influence, but saved face on that score by insisting on Korean independence being guaranteed. OK, the treaties Japan had with Korea up till 1948 gave them massive influence over the peninsula, but the treaty meant they never tried to be too outrageous (or push for annexation, like some Hawks wanted). That, coupled with Japan and Korea fighting on the same side against Russia, led to the situation we have now: Japan and Korea as allies, 'friendly rivals' and regional leaders.

You make a good point there, but a decisive victory in the first war might have averted a lot of disasters later on, if only by Japanese gains locking the Russians/Soviets in Siberia in the Far East. The Fall of Seoul for instance: over 200,000 Japanese and Korean soldiers dead, including General Kuribayashi (though he took 500,000 Red Army soldiers with him), followed by a week of slaughter, rape, looting and other depravities on Seoul's populace by the Red Army. Yamamoto and Yamashita avenged that in Nana-Go though, probably the biggest defeat in Soviet history save for then-General Count von Selle's Operation Clausewitz in '44.
 
OOC: I don't agree with the conclusions you guys are making so mine's gonna be different as a warning, namely that there will the Soviets. The Russo-Japanese as the war was much more important for the fact it caused Bloody Sunday and the 1905 Revolution and helped contribute to Romanov unpopularity.

If the Japanese did win, I would be very afraid as Nicholas. He very nearly made the serious mistake by going for a short victorious war, that could have gone badly and possibly jeopardize the monarchy, it was a close enough call he was actually in the capital when people wanted to see him or I fear those soldiers would shoot. The war allowed for him to gain some respect at least live up to some parts of the Tsar and the people ideal he had believed in, but a defeat I could having terrible consequences. Imagine a European power being beaten by an Asian one, Nicholas might have become a laughing stock of Europe.
 
He did become a laughingstock, as even though the Baltic Fleet played a key role in defeating the Germans at sea, the land war was a bloody disaster all through the war. But key here is the surviving Baltic Fleet: without it - and effective victory over the Germans at sea by late '17 - Olga and her siblings could not have escaped to Britain when the country finally exploded over the lost war on land, and the Tsar's constant refusal to even consider negotiating.

Though, the Germans sending Lenin back and economic blackmail from the rest of the Entente is part of the reasons for such.
 
Plus, not beating the Japanese out of the gate was fairly humiliating - an Asian power held the line and forced Russia to a draw. It was already humiliating enough for the Russians :D
 
The Fall of Seoul for instance: over 200,000 Japanese and Korean soldiers dead, including General Kuribayashi (though he took 500,000 Red Army soldiers with him), followed by a week of slaughter, rape, looting and other depravities on Seoul's populace by the Red Army.

Oh, it was horrible, no two ways about it. But the knowledge that a Japanese general gave his life to defend the capital of Korea, even when he could have honourably withdrawn to fight on...don't tell me that that didn't go a long way to making Japanese-Korean relations better ;)

It occurs to me that a Japanese 'big win' in Asia early on might have led to them turning their attention away from Russia early on. Maybe even going after British colonies at some point in the future. Which would have probably shattered Commonwealth influence in the region. I mean, today: Britain's 'string of pearls' in the Straits and Hong Kong gives them a direct presence in the region, and Australia, Malaya and Sarawak are all foremost allies of Britain. If Japan had fought against Britain, they might have severely damaged British power in Asia.
 
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