DBWI: Japan doesn't get all of Karafuto

At the end of the Russo-Japanese War, the Empire of Japan was allowed to annex the entire island of Karafuto (formerly known as Sakhalin) from the Russian Empire. The 600-mile island north of Hokkaido was treated as a prefecture rather than a colony, as more and more Japanese moved onto it. Small oil reserves were found off the coast, and during the Second Sino-Japanese and the Pacific Wars, these reserves helped fuel the Japanese war machine. Eventually, however, Japan was forced to surrender due to the nuking of Hiroshima and Kokura and the Soviet declaration of war. The Soviets initially tried to regain Karafuto as well as the Kurile Islands, however the Soviet navy was unable to land on Karafuto, and without it, it was impossible to invade the Kuriles. They were able to take the Japanese puppet state of Manchukuo, as well as the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. Because almost all of the people on Karafuto were Japanese, and the fact that the Soviets were unable to invade, Karafuto was allowed to remain part of Japan, while the Kuriles, along with Okinawa, were temporarily taken by the US. Over time, the population on Karafuto grew larger, especially as more coal and oil reserves were discovered. Eventually in 1972, the US gave the Kuriles and Okinawa back to the Japanese. Today, Karafuto is one of the wealthiest prefectures in Japan, with the largest city being the capital of Toyohara.

But what if this didn't happen? What if Japan was only able to receive half of the island, split at the 50th parallel? From what I remember, the island was either going to remain Russian, or Japan would only get the southern half. How would World War II be changed if Karafuto was split between the Russian and Japanese empires? Would the Soviets be able to retake all of the island as well as the Kuriles after they declare war?
 
Other than losing some of the resorts in the north, not a whole lot. Remember, its the least populated Japanese island by far with only 1.8 Million people (and about 1.2 million of that live in Toyohara). outside of Toyohara i think the largest settlement has like 100,000 people and its mostly resort towns and small villages that's mainly farming, fishing or some kind of industry.

However for the tourism industry it would be huge since the area has a large degree of tourism (i mean if you're going to the north, you kind of have to visit Karafuto for its scenery) and i guess their are resources there (not a huge amount but a reasonable amount). Also not sure where the rich people move to if not Karafuto tbh, i know it has the highest amount of billionares there and its GDP per capita is something like 10 million yen (or almost 100k) or some ridiculous figure like that (well if it is 10 mill that would be almost double the national average).

Defense wise the JDSEF also use it for a staging area as well so strategically it is quiet good so i guess with only half the island that hurts since there are bases in the north.

Ironically enough, it may hurt Sapporo and Hokkaido more. Without the entirety of Karafuto, does Sapporo grow into the 'hub of the north' and third largest metro area after greater tokyo and osaka like it did in otl (iirc, its the only metro area outside of Honshu to have a population of over 12 million people). Cause Sapporo is damn cold as well so if their is no incentive for the central government to start pushing for growth there like they did in the 50's and 60's, i imagine Sapporo and Hokkaido isn't nearly as populated (at least in the west and south of the island where greater sapporo is).

Politically it probably effects the SDP's chances of actually being competitive given the island (along with Hokkaido and the rest of the north) forming government ever again in truth.

I don't see the russians developing the island all that much to be honest.
 
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If the Japanese don't have the oil in Sakhalin, they might opt to strike south at the United States, United Kingdom, and Netherlands in order to get the oil in the Dutch East Indies. Sakhalin oil was crucial in the decision not to do that.

If they fight a war against the Americans and British, I can't see the Japanese "merely" being driven from the mainland (sans Southern Korea) as happened OTL following the Soviet DoW and nuking of two of their cities.
 
The Soviet defeat of the Japanese OTL caused the political decline of the militarist faction. The Japanese lost the Northern half of Korea and Manchukuo and were driven form the mainland. They were firebombed to hell and had two of their cities obliterated. The three day civil war in which the military arrested the Emperor for advocating for a negotiated peace and the Imperial loyalists and general public rallied behind the military eternally discredited the militarist faction.

The country's culture changed on a dime in a manner as profound as during the Meiji Restoration. The National Diet reclaimed authority with the support of the Emperor. Taiwan and Japanese Southern Korea were divided into prefectures and given representation in the Diet like with any other prefecture.



If Japan had gotten into a two-front war, I could see a total occupation of Japan by the United States and Soviet Union. There'd likely be similar changes domestically as far as political liberalization goes, but Japan remaining a significant power despite its defeat just wouldn't happen if it's totally occupied.
 
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