DBWI Italy declares war on France in WW2?

[PolishMagnet]

What if Italy hadn't stayed neutral? POD is the German advance through the Ardennes catches the French by surprise, so the war doesn't "stall" like OTL, making Mussolini ready to join.

Would North Africa have been a major front, or would it have gone the same as Germany's colonies in WW1? How do Italian ambitions in the Balkans turn out?

Predictions about Italian politics and economy (and Italian colonies) after the war are also welcome. US occupation? Allied occupation zones? Japan-style dismantling? Soviet occupation?

 

[Johnrankins]

What if Italy hadn't stayed neutral? POD is the German advance through the Ardennes catches the French by surprise, so the war doesn't "stall" like OTL, making Mussolini ready to join.

Would North Africa have been a major front, or would it have gone the same as Germany's colonies in WW1? How do Italian ambitions in the Balkans turn out?

Predictions about Italian politics and economy (and Italian colonies) after the war are also welcome. US occupation? Allied occupation zones? Japan-style dismantling? Soviet occupation?

I see this as unlikely, to be honest. Mussolini would have to be an even bigger fool than I think. If so I imagine he will kick out the English in places, try for Egypt and then get squashed. He probably can beat Yugoslavia and Greece. Still, at the end of the day the British Empire will come back and kick him out of everything.

 

[M79]

Let's say Balbo or Ciano is somehow killed and this unhinges Duche a little bit more. Italy has almost no general worth talking about - even with the early motorjet, the P.133, and the Beretta submachinegun, they are still a 1920s army in many respects. Germany looses a major means of acquiring supplies and trade while their spotters wouldn't be able to 'rent' suspiciously upgraded Italian aircraft for recon purposes. While parts of the peninsula are defensible, this also means another series of fronts that distract from France and Germany proper. It may cause the war to end in late 44 or earlier 45 instead of October 46. Maybe Patton doesn't become the Martyr of Mecklenburg either.

 

[Johnrankins]

Let's say Balbo or Ciano is somehow killed and this unhinges Duche a little bit more. Italy has almost no general worth talking about - even with the early motorjet, the P.133, and the Beretta submachinegun, they are still a 1920s army in many respects. Germany looses a major means of acquiring supplies and trade while their spotters wouldn't be able to 'rent' suspiciously upgraded Italian aircraft for recon purposes. While parts of the peninsula are defensible, this also means another series of fronts that distract from France and Germany proper. It may cause the war to end in late 44 or earlier 45 instead of October 46. Maybe Patton doesn't become the Martyr of Mecklenburg either.

OOC: How did the war get longer with France still in the war and Italy neutral?

 

[M79]

Germany invades Russia in early May 1941. Moscow falls in mid-November as the ground refreezes and this plays a part in the surrender of Leningrad later that winter. Russia reorganizes along a Kazan-based line and turns up the production of T-34s while Germany continues to import additional resources and use Italian factories to produce certain materials and relocate research teams beyond Allied air reach. Russia finally gets rolling in mid-43 while without Kasserine Pass the eventual 1943 landing on Corsica is a nightmare. D-day is much more costly and with more resources the fighting in the West is more reminiscent of that in the East. Type XXI subs are launched in numbers and Germany gets her bigger underground factories online including synthetic fuel refineries. Eventually an upgraded V-101 is able to hit a base in Ireland from southern Germany, mass production is only halted when design work in tandem with Z5-equivalent computers are found in Czechia and former Poland. Berlin falls to the Allies in 1945 and Hitler flees east, an iron curtain is eventually dropped at the Vistula and Prut rivers with Russian and Allied forces meeting at Warsaw. Berlin is still divided accordingly.

 

[KingOnTheEdge]

If anything, this hastens German defeat. yeah France falls, but Hitler's cocky attitude would be emboldened by that, and he repeadedly said that if france 'just fall already so i can melt down that damn tower,' he expected Britain to peace out so he could go for Russia. except Churchill made clear that he wasn't out of the war until the Union Jack flew over the Reichstag, and he'd fly it over paris if needed.

So, Churchill's air and naval superiority as well as Stalin's great hordes of Russians, vs two stooges with rapidly dwindling resources instead of Britain's smaller army and France's incompetent organization of their army vs one stooge with a lot of drive.

The most italy could do was challenge the RN in the Med. and there's a slight problem- the ME was either in the Allies, or Turkey. and Turkey was pro Allies because Italy wanted to conquer them, so the turks would help the allies in the event of damaged naval vessels, if nothing else. I'd give it five months before italy is marched up and a moderate democratic system put in place. Then, after Hitler has lost poland and any slight russian gains as well as his one ally, the empire is storming France and Belgium.

You could theoretically see Japan join the allies in the confusion to grab what is now German Indochina should France surrender

 

[Johnrankins]

Germany invades Russia in early May 1941. Moscow falls in mid-November as the ground refreezes and this plays a part in the surrender of Leningrad later that winter. Russia reorganizes along a Kazan-based line and turns up the production of T-34s while Germany continues to import additional resources and use Italian factories to produce certain materials and relocate research teams beyond Allied air reach. Russia finally gets rolling in mid-43 while without Kasserine Pass the eventual 1943 landing on Corsica is a nightmare. D-day is much more costly and with more resources the fighting in the West is more reminiscent of that in the East. Type XXI subs are launched in numbers and Germany gets her bigger underground factories online including synthetic fuel refineries. Eventually an upgraded V-101 is able to hit a base in Ireland from southern Germany, mass production is only halted when design work in tandem with Z5-equivalent computers are found in Czechia and former Poland. Berlin falls to the Allies in 1945 and Hitler flees east, an iron curtain is eventually dropped at the Vistula and Prut rivers with Russian and Allied forces meeting at Warsaw. Berlin is still divided accordingly.

OOC:
How is Germany going to invade Russia if it is still fighting France? Germany was on the clock. It has to defeat France quickly or it loses.

 

[M79]

France falls in 1940 per our TL. Instead of delaying Barbarossa to fight Greece and save Italy the Germans head straight into Russia as originally planned.

 

[Johnrankins]

France falls in 1940 per our TL. Instead of delaying Barbarossa to fight Greece and save Italy the Germans head straight into Russia as originally planned.

If it stalls it isn't going to fall. If they don't surprise the French coming through the Ardennes it is game over for the Germans.

 

[PolishMagnet]

OOC: How did the war get longer with France still in the war and Italy neutral?

OOC: France has some leadership changes that shake up the defenses a little, and a maneuver through the Ardennes isn't ruled out to the extent it was OTL. This causes the Germany offensive to be slightly slower, which makes Mussolini hesitate. After Mussolini hesitates, him and Hitler both figure Italian neutrality can be useful and it just stays. France still falls in 1940 or 41.

That was my thinking, at least.

 

[Johnrankins]

OOC: France has some leadership changes that shake up the defenses a little, and a maneuver through the Ardennes isn't ruled out to the extent it was OTL. This causes the Germany offensive to be slightly slower, which makes Mussolini hesitate. After Mussolini hesitates, him and Hitler both figure Italian neutrality can be useful and it just stays. France still falls in 1940 or 41.

That was my thinking, at least.

OOC:
A difference in timing enough to be noticeable is almost certainly going to slow it way down in the long run. It really doesn't take much for France to save its army. The whole sickle cut was based on tempo. Slow down the tempo enough for it to be noticeable it almost certainly fails.