DBWI: Italy a monarchy?

Dorozhand

Banned
As celebrations begin for the Festa della Rivoluzione, the 165th anniversary of the foundation of the Roman Republic and the beginning of the Italian Revolutions which followed, the history of XIX Century Italy comes to my mind. It was so improbable that the heroic rebellion of the people of Rome in 1849 would have succeeded in defeating the Pope, then the French, then the Austrians, and finally the Neapolitans and Sardinians, that I would venture to say that in many alternate realities, Italy was either never unified at all, or was unified under a monarchical regime rather than a Garibaldist Republic.

What if Italy had been unified by one of the old kingdoms?
What would the consequences have been on future Italian and European politics?
Would the Italo-Mexican alliance have ever been struck?
What about Austria? Would it have never broken up?
Would a monarchist Italy have pursued a colonial empire rather than condemning the idea?
 
As celebrations begin for the Festa della Rivoluzione, the 165th anniversary of the foundation of the Roman Republic and the beginning of the Italian Revolutions which followed, the history of XIX Century Italy comes to my mind. It was so improbable that the heroic rebellion of the people of Rome in 1849 would have succeeded in defeating the Pope, then the French, then the Austrians, and finally the Neapolitans and Sardinians, that I would venture to say that in many alternate realities, Italy was either never unified at all, or was unified under a monarchical regime rather than a Garibaldist Republic.

What if Italy had been unified by one of the old kingdoms?
What would the consequences have been on future Italian and European politics?
Would the Italo-Mexican alliance have ever been struck?
What about Austria? Would it have never broken up?
Would a monarchist Italy have pursued a colonial empire rather than condemning the idea?

OOC: You do realize that this is pretty much ASB right? The various Italian revolutionaries stood NO CHANCE whatsoever against Austria or France.
 

dead_wolf

Banned
OOC: You do realize that this is pretty much ASB right? The various Italian revolutionaries stood NO CHANCE whatsoever against Austria or France.

OOC: Well.... not really? The Austrians were falling to pieces at the moment what with all their possessions and proxies in Germany, Hungary, Hapsburg Poland, and Italy all going up in revolution at the same time. Similarly France had also experienced the 1848 Revolutions, and Napoléon III's grasp on power was still somewhat weak. His decision to send troops to Rome earned him political capital with the right in France but also angered the left, both the liberals and the republicans. It'd take quite a lot, but it's certainly not impossible. You'd need to stop the Austrians from advancing beyond Venecia and either defeat the French expedition sent to Rome or prevent it from being sent in the first place. Also the Neopolitians will be an issue, but much less so than France or Austria.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Well the Italian Civil War of 1906 might be butterflied away, or would the urban- rural divide still be large enough to force a violent confrontation?
 

Dorozhand

Banned
OOC: You do realize that this is pretty much ASB right? The various Italian revolutionaries stood NO CHANCE whatsoever against Austria or France.

OOC: Not so. I think they could well have defeated France, especially if it were involved somewhere else simultaneously, and with a French force defeated, their support would go through the roof. Then, if they can defeat Austria and have it luckily collapse soon afterwards, they have the breathing room to deal with Sardinia and Sicily.
Remember that the Russian an d French revolutions, to outside analysis, stood no chance either.
 
I don't know if it's either the House of Savoy or a cadet branch of the Hapsburg as the ruling house of Italy (although IMO the former is more plausible).
 

Dorozhand

Banned
Well the Italian Civil War of 1906 might be butterflied away, or would the urban- rural divide still be large enough to force a violent confrontation?

I think that the forces which led to the civil war were already in place during the mid 19th century, but whether or not a monarchy would have dealt with it early and decisively rather than let it fester is an open question, and what involvement Bakuninism might have had is completely up in the air given the butterflies involved.
Would the bourgeois capitalists and urban industrialists have ever become a major force in a monarchist Italy? And if not, would the impoverishment of the countryside have occurred in the same ways which led to the popularity of Bakuninism and the beginnings of war? Would a falling behind in capitalist development have hurt Italy's productive capacity and reduced its ability to even wage war?

Perhaps, like the Russian Revolution of 1904, a monarchy might even have sped things up. It depends on whether the people would have not rebelled or rebelled even earlier if the breaking of the power of the Catholic church had never occurred, which in turn leads to the question of whether a monarchy would ever have dared annex the Papal State in the first place.
 
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Dorozhand

Banned
There is also the question of the Russian Revolution. Would Russia's 1902 attempt to invade and defeat the rising power of the Great Chu Dynasty of China have failed as spectacularly?
 
OOC: Not so. I think they could well have defeated France, especially if it were involved somewhere else simultaneously, and with a French force defeated, their support would go through the roof. Then, if they can defeat Austria and have it luckily collapse soon afterwards, they have the breathing room to deal with Sardinia and Sicily.
Remember that the Russian an d French revolutions, to outside analysis, stood no chance either.

OoC: For an actual POD, maybe if the French commander had more Republican sympathies? OTL, the Roman Republicans beat off the first French attack and returned the prisoners with tracts that literally cited the French constitution: "France respects foreign nationalities. Her might will never be employed against the liberty of any people." Or alternatively if the Italians didn't try diplomacy and tried to follow up their attack (instead, they waited, and the French got reinforced.)
 
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