DBWI: Israel invades Lebanon

[Kotka]

Recently Haaretz published a declasified report of the IDF with plans of a new invasion of Lebanon in 1982 to expell the PLO like in 1978. It was ultimately decided that given the political chaos of the Lebanese civil war it would've been like a new Vietnam.
What would've happened if Israel had gone ahead with the plan?

 

[Saint_007]

Well, I'd say they'd have managed to kick the Palestinians out with Lebanese Phalangist help, maybe even have held on to Beirut. After that, there would have been really nobody to kick them out.

I'm guessing the biggest problem would have been local resistance growing over time into something truly vicious. I mean, the Americans got savaged when they tried to 'liberate' Beirut from combined Sunni-Palestinian forces. They forced the Pals to lay low, but then someone blew up the Marines and the French MP barracks, so they ran out of there pretty quickly.

Still, maybe they could have stopped the place from becoming a Syrian province in all but name by giving Damascus some pause.

 

[Kotka]

Well, I'd say they'd have managed to kick the Palestinians out with Lebanese Phalangist help, maybe even have held on to Beirut. After that, there would have been really nobody to kick them out.

I'm guessing the biggest problem would have been local resistance growing over time into something truly vicious. I mean, the Americans got savaged when they tried to 'liberate' Beirut from combined Sunni-Palestinian forces. They forced the Pals to lay low, but then someone blew up the Marines and the French MP barracks, so they ran out of there pretty quickly.

Still, maybe they could have stopped the place from becoming a Syrian province in all but name by giving Damascus some pause.

Mmm not sure about holding Beirut given the ruined labyrinth it was.
But yeah a longer Israeli presence would’ve developed into a fierce resistance.

 

[Saint_007]

Mmm not sure about holding Beirut given the ruined labyrinth it was.
But yeah a longer Israeli presence would’ve developed into a fierce resistance.

To be honest, it would have been manageable; the Syrians may have been butchers (as they pretty much cleared out the Palestinians or suppressed them after the Yanks pulled out), but they knew how to play the long game. Israel could have potentially created a client state in the south to manage the region and sit back with an ally at its back.

Direct colonization wouldn't be possible. Unlike the Golan heights, which were (relatively) sparsely populated and easily defensible, or Sinai, which was a whole lot of desert, the south Lebanon region is hilly, good for defense, but densely populated. Sure, they're just Shi'ites, generally regarded as the scum of Lebanese society (aside from Palestinians), but the best guerrilla movements came from people with nothing to lose.

I think the biggest issue with the invasion was that it would have been Ariel Sharon's brainchild, and to be honest, the man was a go-getter like MacArthur - bullish, stubborn, and opportunistic. Had he not been removed from office of Minister of Defense over a procurement scandal, he in all likelihood would have gone ahead with the invasion. I mean, a limited attack in 1978 shattered several PLO units that had been conducting raids into north Israel, and the lack of any Lebanese resistance worthy of the name was incredibly tempting. By the time they got a new guy in office, the window had closed, the Americans got their ass kicked, and Ariel's replacement was a lot more cautious.