DBWI: If Thomas D'Arcy McGee had died?

As the story goes, on this day in 1868, Thomas D'Arcy McGee, later to become one of Canada's most beloved Prime Ministers, survived an assassination attempt at the hands of Patrick Whelan, a radical Irish Republican(who later spent 10 years in prison for attempted murder before being deported to the U.S.). But what if he hadn't? Would Catholic Canadian support for Irish independence have waned, or even largely cease? And would Canada's New Republican movement of the 1890s have been butterflied, thanks to this(do remember that, later in his life, former P.M. McGee had come around to supporting making the Crown obsolete in Canada)?

And how would this affect Canada's relations with the U.S.? Would we still be friendly, by and large, or might tensions develop, perhaps over Fenianism in the States, should it continue?
 
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Well had he died you'd likely have less of the competition which drove the Liberal Party to distraction in 1872 which might mean John A. actually gets unseated from government following the Pacific Rail Scandal. But if Brown and McGee aren't clashing and splitting the Catholic vote the liberals probably have a really good chance of taking government. As it was I'd imagine it would be very hard to unseat MacDonald otherwise, maybe impossible!

As to the Catholic support for Irish independence, I doubt it would be any weaker than it was OTL. McGee is part of the reason why Irish Catholics by and large rejected Fenianism in the first place and started pushing for a 'Dominion of Ireland' instead. If he died maybe that would change, but I think the rejection of Fenianism points to an Irish Canadian acceptance of less violent means of independence in the long run.

OOC: New Republican movement? McGee had pretty much renounced his republican tendencies by 1856 so I sincerely doubt he would be the one to attempt to implement republican ideals in Canada.
 
Well had he died you'd likely have less of the competition which drove the Liberal Party to distraction in 1872 which might mean John A. actually gets unseated from government following the Pacific Rail Scandal. But if Brown and McGee aren't clashing and splitting the Catholic vote the liberals probably have a really good chance of taking government. As it was I'd imagine it would be very hard to unseat MacDonald otherwise, maybe impossible!

As to the Catholic support for Irish independence, I doubt it would be any weaker than it was OTL. McGee is part of the reason why Irish Catholics by and large rejected Fenianism in the first place and started pushing for a 'Dominion of Ireland' instead. If he died maybe that would change, but I think the rejection of Fenianism points to an Irish Canadian acceptance of less violent means of independence in the long run.
OOC: New Republican movement? McGee had pretty much renounced his republican tendencies by 1856 so I sincerely doubt he would be the one to attempt to implement republican ideals in Canada.[/QUOTE]

OOC: I can see why you might think McGee changing his mind on that might seem unlikely to OTL eyes, and perhaps it is to an extent, but a "Dominion of Ireland"? I'm not convinced that a surviving McGee would necessarily allow for that, and if anything, there would likely be rather less animosity against Irish republicans as a whole(especially when the Fenians do eventually decline).

IC: Erm....are you sure you're reading from the same books as I am? Some more conciliatory Irish Catholics (mainly in Ontario) did support the "Dominion of Ireland" idea in the 1870s, but McGee himself initially did not take a side, and when the Troubles started taking off in the 1880s, that ended up pushing him in the direction of supporting the Irish Republicans by the end of that decade, especially as the Fenians were nonexistent in Canada by that time; in fact, it was the Loyalist Orange Order that was now the primary radical group in Canada at that time.....their willingness to use violence in service of their goals(partly out of hatred and fear of the Catholic Irish immigrating to the country in increasing numbers, which only grew as Canada distanced itself from London as time passed by), shocked even many pro-Royalist Canadians. Given that, and Canada's maturing into a potential economic power of it's own, I suppose by the dawn of the 20th Century, it was, perhaps, only a matter of time before that other shoe dropped.....

But then again, a desire to make the Crown obsolete didn't necessarily entail leaving Britain's sphere of influence; in fact, P.M. McGee is generally given a lot of credit for helping draw up the idea of the modern-day British Commonwealth(though he died a decade before it could be formed), and though Canada would eventually drop the Crown in 1916, it became one of the founding members of that organization when it was finally formed in 1919, along with Australia and New Zealand(Australia dropped the Crown in 1946 but New Zealand still recognizes the monarch as a secondary head of state).

OOC: Back to the OOC discussion, though, I do think that even if McGee *had* come around to supporting a more independent course for Canada, he would very likely still want to keep *some* ties with Britain-after all, he was never, from what I know, a radical even when he did sympathize with Irish Republicanism pre-1856. And I honestly believe that, here, a compromise solution in which Canada does ditch it's official link to the Crown but still keeps it's other ties to Britain might really appeal not just to him, but many others in Canada as well.
 
OOC: I can see why you might think McGee changing his mind on that might seem unlikely to OTL eyes, and perhaps it is to an extent, but a "Dominion of Ireland"? I'm not convinced that a surviving McGee would necessarily allow for that, and if anything, there would likely be rather less animosity against Irish republicans as a whole(especially when the Fenians do eventually decline).

OOC: Well McGee certainly wouldn't be advocating full blown Irish independence, especially with the Fenians as a reminder of why he doesn't like violent revolution any more. He was all in favor of Canadian Confederation so its more than a little unlikely he'd bounce back to republicanism, especially since he was the one who devised the idea of having one of Victoria's sons establish a Canadian dynasty as a means of independence.

OOC: Back to the OOC discussion, though, I do think that even if McGee *had* come around to supporting a more independent course for Canada, he would very likely still want to keep *some* ties with Britain-after all, he was never, from what I know, a radical even when he did sympathize with Irish Republicanism pre-1856. And I honestly believe that, here, a compromise solution in which Canada does ditch it's official link to the Crown but still keeps it's other ties to Britain might really appeal not just to him, but many others in Canada as well.

OOC: I don't really think that case holds up. MacDonald's conservatives, and even the French Bleu's all supported the monarchy, there were precious few Canadians who would be willing to cut ties with Britain in this era. You'd need a major POD to get republicanism and repudiation of the Crown as a serious movement in Canada, it's most prominent members almost all opposed American style republicanism as well.

McGee had completely renounced Republican ideals by the time he came to Canada and accepted the Parliamentary model by 1866. By 1867 he was a pretty hard-core proto-Canadian nationalist, and much of that identity included ties to the Crown.

I think you'd need a POD well before McGee's death to get republicanism in favor in Canada or at least make him more likely to be a supporter of it.

IC: Erm....are you sure you're reading from the same books as I am? Some more conciliatory Irish Catholics (mainly in Ontario) did support the "Dominion of Ireland" idea in the 1870s, but McGee himself initially did not take a side, and when the Troubles started taking off in the 1880s, that ended up pushing him in the direction of supporting the Irish Republicans by the end of that decade, especially as the Fenians were nonexistent in Canada by that time; in fact, it was the Loyalist Orange Order that was now the primary radical group in Canada at that time.....their willingness to use violence in service of their goals(partly out of hatred and fear of the Catholic Irish immigrating to the country in increasing numbers, which only grew as Canada distanced itself from London as time passed by), shocked even many pro-Royalist Canadians. Given that, and Canada's maturing into a potential economic power of it's own, I suppose by the dawn of the 20th Century, it was, perhaps, only a matter of time before that other shoe dropped.....

But then again, a desire to make the Crown obsolete didn't necessarily entail leaving Britain's sphere of influence; in fact, P.M. McGee is generally given a lot of credit for helping draw up the idea of the modern-day British Commonwealth(though he died a decade before it could be formed), and though Canada would eventually drop the Crown in 1916, it became one of the founding members of that organization when it was finally formed in 1919, along with Australia and New Zealand(Australia dropped the Crown in 1946 but New Zealand still recognizes the monarch as a secondary head of state).

IC: The Orangemen were still the dominant group in Canada up until (one could argue) 1902 as we still supported Britain's Imperial policies in Asia and Africa, sending men to the Boer War in 1880 and even risking American ire over the annexation of Hawaii in 1890 over the protests of the American immigrant community. The increased tensions from roughly 1889 to 1909 with the lukewarm support of the British helped increase the clout of the Irish Moderates, which PM McGee undoubtedly prevailed with fermenting the more independent Canadian sentiment when he was elected in 1892 (OOC I'm assuming this is when you envisioned it? Just makes sense with how unshakable MacDonald was until his death OTL) with the fall of the Conservative government.

His death might mean that the Conservatives stay ascendent longer though, MacDonald proved very difficult to unseat and the combatative nature of the anti-Catholic Liberals and the disagreements between the Irish and French Catholics certainly are what kept Canada more pro-Britain.

If the Conservatives stayed in power beyond 1892 then you probably see more strained relations with the US until a more conciliatory government comes to power.
 
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OOC: Well McGee certainly wouldn't be advocating full blown Irish independence, especially with the Fenians as a reminder of why he doesn't like violent revolution any more. He was all in favor of Canadian Confederation so its more than a little unlikely he'd bounce back to republicanism, especially since he was the one who devised the idea of having one of Victoria's sons establish a Canadian dynasty as a means of independence.

OOC: Hmm.....well, even so, I'd like to point out that the actual independence of Ireland ended up being a rather more peaceful process than IOTL, even after the *Troubles.....although mainly because very few in either Britain or Ireland wanted to have to put up with any more political violence.

IC: McGee did flirt with the idea at one point, yes. It was something he would come to greatly regret, however, particularly after the Prince he'd once supported as a potential King of Canada ended up publicly voicing his approval of the massacre in Dublin in September, 1884.....even as his mother tried to back away from it. Of course, it can be admitted that it's not a major point as to why McGee eventually advocated Canadian independence, but it certainly played a role. Of course, it was Henri C.W. Laurier who ended up being instrumental in helping Ireland gain their independence in 1918, but McGee got the ball rolling on that. (Laurier, btw, was almost himself assassinated by that fanatical Orangeman, James Paisley, for his troubles; my fellow Americans may recall that his youngest brother, Jebediah, born a U.S. citizen while their father was in hiding, ended up being elected governor of Mississippi in 1948.....and ended up being one of the most horribly racist and corrupt governors in that state's history; if you knew even half of what he did to the Italian-American community in Jackson, you'd no doubt be horrified-many of his actions were inspired by the Orangemen's actions in Ireland and Canada during the Troubles.)

OOC: Yes, btw, the James Paisley mentioned here is indeed an ATL version of the father of the infamous Ulster nationalist Ian Paisley, who died last year. And I let Wilfrid Laurier live until the spring of 1921 ITTL, although he died late in 1919 IOTL, IIRC.

OOC: I don't really think that case holds up. MacDonald's conservatives, and even the French Bleu's all supported the monarchy, there were precious few Canadians who would be willing to cut ties with Britain in this era. You'd need a major POD to get republicanism and repudiation of the Crown as a serious movement in Canada, it's most prominent members almost all opposed American style republicanism as well.

McGee had completely renounced Republican ideals by the time he came to Canada and accepted the Parliamentary model by 1866. By 1867 he was a pretty hard-core proto-Canadian nationalist, and much of that identity included ties to the Crown.

I think you'd need a POD well before McGee's death to get republicanism in favor in Canada or at least make him more likely to be a supporter of it.
OOC: 48 years worth of divergence can do a lot(especially with Britain mishandling Ireland as badly as they did initially). And, btw, Canada actually kept a Westminster-style system after independence ITTL.....the American system was considered, but was deemed to be too problematic and wouldn't appeal to many Canadians anyway.

IC: The Orangemen were still the dominant group in Canada up until (one could argue) 1902 as we still supported Britain's Imperial policies in Asia and Africa, sending men to the Boer War in 1880 and even risking American ire over the annexation of Hawaii in 1890 over the protests of the American immigrant community. The increased tensions from roughly 1889 to 1909 with the lukewarm support of the British helped increase the clout of the Irish Moderates, which PM McGee undoubtedly prevailed with fermenting the more independent Canadian sentiment when he was elected in 1892 (OOC I'm assuming this is when you envisioned it? Just makes sense with how unshakable MacDonald was until his death OTL) with the fall of the Conservative government.

His death might mean that the Conservatives stay ascendent longer though, MacDonald proved very difficult to unseat and the combatative nature of the anti-Catholic Liberals and the disagreements between the Irish and French Catholics certainly are what kept Canada more pro-Britain.

If the Conservatives stayed in power beyond 1892 then you probably see more strained relations with the US until a more conciliatory government comes to power.
OOC: I had originally planned for McGee to be elected, at least for a first term, circa 1880 or so, but we can work with a second term in 1892 along with that.....or perhaps in place of it, if that makes more sense; either works for me.

IC: That's true. It probably helped, though, that MacDonald was fairly moderate IOTL and actually condemned the violence committed in Ireland by the Orangemen as well as the radical nationalists.....and also cooperated with the Liberals in regards to immigration of Irishmen. Perhaps if he had been a little more hardline, though, he wouldn't have been able to stay in office quite as long.
 
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