Ok, after Varus-Germanicus-Maximus subdued the Germans at Teutoburger Wald and Arminius was paraded through Rome, Rome established control over Germania. However the process of absorbing the territories and various rebellious client states all the way from Raetia to Laynlai *Justland* proved to be a burden on the Romans so much that the Sassinads were able to Push the Romans all the way back to Constantionaple, and the Berbers seized North Africa while various Foedarati Groups and Roman Generals would carve the Empire apart in the coming century.
So lets say Arminius succeeds in defeating and surrounding Varus and 3 entire Roman Legions are wiped out. Rome now decides to just hold along the defensible Rhine-Danube line in Europe while focusing on defending the rich levant and productive north africa. Does the empire live past 522 AD*?
OOC : using AD for simplicity, yes I know the butterflies.