DBWI : If Rome had not conquered Germania, would the Empire have lasted longer?

[Axeman]

Ok, after Varus-Germanicus-Maximus subdued the Germans at Teutoburger Wald and Arminius was paraded through Rome, Rome established control over Germania. However the process of absorbing the territories and various rebellious client states all the way from Raetia to Laynlai *Justland* proved to be a burden on the Romans so much that the Sassinads were able to Push the Romans all the way back to Constantionaple, and the Berbers seized North Africa while various Foedarati Groups and Roman Generals would carve the Empire apart in the coming century.

So lets say Arminius succeeds in defeating and surrounding Varus and 3 entire Roman Legions are wiped out. Rome now decides to just hold along the defensible Rhine-Danube line in Europe while focusing on defending the rich levant and productive north africa. Does the empire live past 522 AD*?

OOC : using AD for simplicity, yes I know the butterflies.

 

[Youngania]

Ok, after Varus-Germanicus-Maximus subdued the Germans at Teutoburger Wald and Arminius was paraded through Rome, Rome established control over Germania. However the process of absorbing the territories and various rebellious client states all the way from Raetia to Laynlai *Justland* proved to be a burden on the Romans so much that the Sassinads were able to Push the Romans all the way back to Constantionaple, and the Berbers seized North Africa while various Foedarati Groups and Roman Generals would carve the Empire apart in the coming century.

So lets say Arminius succeeds in defeating and surrounding Varus and 3 entire Roman Legions are wiped out. Rome now decides to just hold along the defensible Rhine-Danube line in Europe while focusing on defending the rich levant and productive north africa. Does the empire live past 522 AD*?

OOC : using AD for simplicity, yes I know the butterflies.

Well, the Roman Empire would have remained more stable and proably would have lasted a couple of more centuries. However, they would eventually collapse due to the strain of adminstering such a vast territory.

 

[clendor]

How the hell poor German warriors, even ambushing, would defeat 3 full-equipped Roman proffecional legions?

 

[Codae]

I really don't think the resources expended on Germania would be sufficient to hold back the Sassanids. Maybe the Romans would push hard enough to deny Syria and Anatolia, or at least Egypt, to the Persians, but, really, their cavalry was devastating to the legions, and they would probably be too used up to hang on to the eastern territories.

But lasting longer? Maybe. If the Romans cut their losses in the east, establishing a defensible frontier, then the Hunnic migration of the coming centuries could perhaps be weathered. But whenever a Roman civil war happens, you're probably going to see a Sassanid intervention, though their own lines will be pretty stretched.

But the Rhine-Danube line is a bit longer than OTL's northern frontier. It might take too much to garrison it well enough to outlast the Sassanids. That's really what Rome would need to do: once the barbarians stop coming quite so hard, if Persia has declined, the SPQR will be without any severe foreign threats.

 

[Axeman]

How the hell poor German warriors, even ambushing, would defeat 3 full-equipped Roman proffecional legions?

Well their eastern brothers destroyed FOUR Roman Legions at the battle of the Carpanthous Pass.

Plus Varus came pretty close to defeat in OTL, he had to merge the remainder of his forces into 1 legion, so he lost essentialy over 2 / 3rds of his force.

 

[Rex Romanum]

Ok, after Varus-Germanicus-Maximus subdued the Germans at Teutoburger Wald and Arminius was paraded through Rome, Rome established control over Germania. However the process of absorbing the territories and various rebellious client states all the way from Raetia to Laynlai *Justland* proved to be a burden on the Romans so much that the Sassinads were able to Push the Romans all the way back to Constantionaple, and the Berbers seized North Africa while various Foedarati Groups and Roman Generals would carve the Empire apart in the coming century.

So lets say Arminius succeeds in defeating and surrounding Varus and 3 entire Roman Legions are wiped out. Rome now decides to just hold along the defensible Rhine-Danube line in Europe while focusing on defending the rich levant and productive north africa. Does the empire live past 522 AD*?

OOC : using AD for simplicity, yes I know the butterflies.

I doubt it, honestly. Germania was inhabited by restless Germanic tribes...and I can't imagine what would happen if Varus failed to conquered them... The Romans would have to face a countless raids and invasions along the Rhine-Danube frontier...
About the Sassanids...I'm not too sure either... Imagine if capable emperors like Carus, Galerius, or Constantine I focused their attention to them instead of uselessly trying to quell the rebellions in Germania... The Romans would have been able to hold Syria, Anatolia, and Egypt for at least another decades... And North Africa...seriously? The Berbers successfully take it only by pure luck...

 

[Axeman]

The Danube-Elbe frontier line held fine and the source of the Empire's destruction was not from Scythia and Lizyanthia*Lithuania and Poland* but rather from the fact the attention given to holding those led to Persian victories.

Lets say the Romans do hold the Rhine-Danube line. There are a bunch of restless Germanic tribes, very small and unorganized. When the Huns come along they either get expelled into Rome, were they slaughter the disorganized tribes one by one, or they successfully band together and fight the Huns, and even if they are defeated the Huns have to deal with rebellious Germanic Tribes, and if they expelled anyway, see above. The only reason the Huns went into Thrace OTL was because Persian advances in Anatollia and the loss of North Africa meant Rome's flanks were weakened in the east, while the western end of the Empire *Gaul, Britannia, Hispana, Italia, Illyria* were secure and growing wealthier. Rome was too strong in Germania but weak in the East.

Once Thrace and Greece were plundered and the Huns went west into Illyria the Empire disintegrated into political infighting. Roman culture is still very much alive today, there is a reason why the language of diplomacy and business in most of the modern world is Latin, not Maygar or any of the other "conquerors" of Roman territory.

Also the Berber's didn't conquer North Africa by pure luck, Nycillus may have been a Roman tratior, but he was also a superb general and that was shown with his victories at Ceasera and Lepcis Magna.