DBWI: If Kerry loses in 04 which Democrat gets the nod in 08?

Who gets the nod?

  • Hillary Clinton

    Votes: 26 56.5%
  • Barack Obama

    Votes: 10 21.7%
  • John Edwards

    Votes: 4 8.7%
  • Russ Feingold

    Votes: 3 6.5%
  • Bill Richardson

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • John Kerry (again)

    Votes: 2 4.3%
  • Mark Warner

    Votes: 1 2.2%
  • Harold Ford

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    46
Probably Hillary -- everyone assumed she'd be the frontrunner had she run in 04, and I can see that inevitability on getting stronger in 08...

Also, Rep. Harold Ford -- really? Where's he get publicity? Also, I'd have to think Senator Obama is going to have to wait awhile before he runs in any case...
 
I foresee a Hillary vs Feingold primary battle, pitting centre vs left. Obama could conceivably be a good VP for either one, heaven knows his speaking skills would be a great boost for a campaign.
 
Why is Obama even on your list? He's a great senator now and most people know his name, but back then he was really just that guy who gave a good speech once. I'll grant I'm kind of interested in an Obama 2012 run and he's certainly a contender now, but I think that back in 2008 he just wouldn't have had a chance. Too inexperienced.

Seven years of Kerry sure have been nice though.
 

JoeMulk

Banned
Why is Obama even on your list? He's a great senator now and most people know his name, but back then he was really just that guy who gave a good speech once. I'll grant I'm kind of interested in an Obama 2012 run and he's certainly a contender now, but I think that back in 2008 he just wouldn't have had a chance. Too inexperienced.

Seven years of Kerry sure have been nice though.

yeah, I must say that i'm surprised that Kerry didn't raise Obama's profile by nominating him as VP to replace Edwards after he was forced to resign. I guess that Bill Richardson was just a ploy to go for the "southwestern strategy" in 08. It certainly helped him escape the Edwards fiasco unscathed and put New Mexico and Arizona in the Dem column with even Texas in striking distance.
 
yeah, I must say that i'm surprised that Kerry didn't raise Obama's profile by nominating him as VP to replace Edwards after he was forced to resign. I guess that Bill Richardson was just a ploy to go for the "southwestern strategy" in 08. It certainly helped him escape the Edwards fiasco unscathed and put New Mexico and Arizona in the Dem column with even Texas in striking distance.

I thought it was a good choice to choose Richardson. Between the two of them, their foreign policy experience is so good that they've managed to handle the Arab Spring masterfully. I've never seen America react so well to such an unexpected set of events. Obama will do fine raising his profile on his own. He's such a powerful speaker that he has gotten himself to his level of prominence with just a few speeches: the 2004 convention one, the 2007 Edwards one, and the one just a few months ago on Arab democracy.
 
yeah, I must say that i'm surprised that Kerry didn't raise Obama's profile by nominating him as VP to replace Edwards after he was forced to resign. I guess that Bill Richardson was just a ploy to go for the "southwestern strategy" in 08. It certainly helped him escape the Edwards fiasco unscathed and put New Mexico and Arizona in the Dem column with even Texas in striking distance.

Maybe Because Obama has been nipping at Kerry's heels from the right since 2004, insiders said that Obama was the leader of the 2009 Blue Dogs that gutted Health care reform.
 
Ach, voted Obama when I tried to vote Feingold.

Anyway, the economy will ITTL's 2008 will probably be worse, since Bush will probably not be nearly as proactive in responding to the early stages of the economic downturn. We'd also probably still be stuck in Iraq with no way out, instead of three months from a total withdrawal, which will make us even more war-weary and anti-Republican. That means that any reasonably coherent and scandal-free Democrat is virtually guaranteed a victory. Hillary would remind people of the good days they had under Bill, but it's the extremes of the parties that usually turn out in the greatest numbers, and a few early victories could be enough to put Feingold in the nomination. Also, historically, the Dems rarely elect the initial front-runner; look at Carter, look at Clinton, look at Kerry himself. The Republicans will likely nominate McCain as IOTL, because he was the last runner-up and that's how the Republicans work. Obama would likely make a strong showing among black voters if he ran, but I don't think he can win any states. Maybe a few Southern states, but that's it.

The general will see a massive Democratic landslide, instead of OTL's sqeaker. The Republicans will be blamed for the probably-worse economy and the Iraq War, and they will suffer at all levels. Feingold/whoever probably gets at least 350 EVs.
 
Edwards has to be the frontrunner. Clinton and Feingold also contenders.

Oh and, the only way Obama could have a chance is if in Bush's 2nd term the Iraq occupation turned disastrous. But conservatives couldn't be that incompetent - could they?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
There would be no ´08, because the Bush regime would have proclaimed Martial Law and abolished the Congress if they had got 4 more years.
 
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