DBWI: Hitler attacks first

On July 6, 1941, as we all know, Joseph Stalin launched Operation Lenin and commenced his invasion of the Third Reich. I ask you this:

What if Hitler had attacked first? Many historians claim that he would've nullified the M-R Pact just as easily as Stalin, and had relatively solid plans to do just that.
 
Well, the third reich might still be in power, for one. The USSR was their biggest threat, and if they kept the element of surprise, they could have won the war. The march 4 coup d'etat would have never happened and the Reich wouldn't have had to negotiate a surrender to the allies.
 
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On July 6, 1941, as we all know, Joseph Stalin launched Operation Lenin and commenced his invasion of the Third Reich. I ask you this:

What if Hitler had attacked first? Many historians claim that he would've nullified the M-R Pact just as easily as Stalin, and had relatively solid plans to do just that.


You'd need a pre-1936 PoD to do this.


The Soviet Army had several excellent commanders, like Mikhail Tukhachevsky, who were well aware that the rise of Nazi Germany would lead to a great opportunity to "regain what was lost" after 1918.

Stalin had apparently considered purging members of his armed forces, but instead decided on purging the chief advocate of this method instead--one Nikolai Yezhov. Suppose that Yezhov is made NKVD director and able to get his way and purge the Red Army. The Red Army would be unable to launch this war.

Germany's collapse in 1942 and the Soviet Advance to the Rhine make pretty clear that Germany can't hope to take on the Soviet Union with most of Europe behind them. Instead, with the Soviets DoWing to defend its collapsing Yugoslavian Ally, Stalin picked a good time and a good method to win its war.

I think this may well be the great blunder of our time. Hitler's stupidity essentially caused Europe to self destruct into a new Soviet order. France flat out elected Communists to rule in 1944; the creation of the Vienna Pact reaching from Spain to Finland probably wouldn't happen. That said, its clear that Hitler would have meant very bad things, given his insane orders to kill Jews in the national collapse and the cleanup operations of 1943.

Perhaps Japan might well have opted to join Germany's doomed war against the Soviet Union; probably not, given how badly the Japanese did in Outer Mongolia. That said, Europe to this day remains a series of Soviet Puppet Regimes. Its been nearly 80 years since these regimes were created and its clear that nations like Portugal, Norway and Sweden have long since left behind even nations like the French People's Republic.

Maybe, someday, the Soviet Union will collapse. It will probably be many decades to come. It would never have happened if Hitler and Germany didn't beg Stalin for annexation into his Communist Europe; that's what happens if you have a drug addicted hobo as Chancellor.

 


You'd need a pre-1936 PoD to do this.


The Soviet Army had several excellent commanders, like Mikhail Tukhachevsky, who were well aware that the rise of Nazi Germany would lead to a great opportunity to "regain what was lost" after 1918.

Stalin had apparently considered purging members of his armed forces, but instead decided on purging the chief advocate of this method instead--one Nikolai Yezhov. Suppose that Yezhov is made NKVD director and able to get his way and purge the Red Army. The Red Army would be unable to launch this war.



I don't know... purging all your top generals when an aggressively anti-Communist regime lives just a few doors down? I know this is Stalin we're talking about, but surely nobody would be that stupid or paranoid.

And btw, the Soviet Union may be around forever, but it's starting to lose its stranglehold over Europe. Look at the revolutions happening in the People's Republic of England, for instance, and the ongoing Irish Civil War. That nasty guerilla war in Alaska isn't really helping things out any.
 
I don't know... purging all your top generals when an aggressively anti-Communist regime lives just a few doors down? I know this is Stalin we're talking about, but surely nobody would be that stupid or paranoid.

And btw, the Soviet Union may be around forever, but it's starting to lose its stranglehold over Europe. Look at the revolutions happening in the People's Republic of England, for instance, and the ongoing Irish Civil War. That nasty guerilla war in Alaska isn't really helping things out any.

Guerilla War, please, IPLM[1] are a bunch of punks on parkas shouting the greatness of Marx and Lenin, they aren't a legitimate insurgency[2],
As for the POD assuming Blue Max's scenario is correct, it's a bit iffy but the only remotely realistic one suggested thus far how long before old general winter and sheer Russian manpower beat him back, also if Japan did decide to ally against the commies do you think America would fight alongside the USSR and free-Europe? I know FDR was behind it before his death, so maybe by negating President Garner you could have America jump into the fray in Europe as well in that case I would give o'l Adolf till 44 before the regime collapses or some coup is launched against him to preserve the Motherland.
[1]Indigenous Peoples Liberation Movement.
[2]I am sorry, I hate it when someone retsina something established in one of these by acting as if the guy is insane, but I doubt the realism in having a serious left-wing revolutionary movement in Alaska capable of winning over government forces.
 
Guerilla War, please, IPLM[1] are a bunch of punks on parkas shouting the greatness of Marx and Lenin, they aren't a legitimate insurgency[2],
As for the POD assuming Blue Max's scenario is correct, it's a bit iffy but the only remotely realistic one suggested thus far how long before old general winter and sheer Russian manpower beat him back, also if Japan did decide to ally against the commies do you think America would fight alongside the USSR and free-Europe? I know FDR was behind it before his death, so maybe by negating President Garner you could have America jump into the fray in Europe as well in that case I would give o'l Adolf till 44 before the regime collapses or some coup is launched against him to preserve the Motherland.
[1]Indigenous Peoples Liberation Movement.
[2]I am sorry, I hate it when someone retsina something established in one of these by acting as if the guy is insane, but I doubt the realism in having a serious left-wing revolutionary movement in Alaska capable of winning over government forces.

Yeah but would the US have stayed put? It's not like America had a real interventionist streak back then, remember the US response to the Soviet takeover was to prepare for the defense of the Western hemisphere at the expense of everywhere else. Even if FDR was alive long enough to get us into the war in Europe or the Pacific War somehow drags the US in (yeah yeah I know that's ASB but Hitler WAS pretty crazy).

That wouldn't even guarantee the United States would make a long-term commitment to Europe. It's entirely possible the US would see all the carnage left by Europe's latest squabble and wash our hands of it just like after the Great War and Stalin was definitely the kind of monster who could NOT keep his hands to himself.
 
And btw, the Soviet Union may be around forever, but it's starting to lose its stranglehold over Europe. Look at the revolutions happening in the People's Republic of England, for instance, and the ongoing Irish Civil War. That nasty guerilla war in Alaska isn't really helping things out any.

I'm not entirely convinced that this will lead to a loss of the Soviet "stranglehold", at least as far as conservatives today will talk about it. All the English really want, according to most major news sources here in Québec, are for Soviet troops to leave England, more personal liberties, and independent unions, but to keep the majority of the state socialism that's sprung up since 1944.

As for the Irish, who the hell knows. I could see the socialists losing out there, given the Irish tendency to just do whatever the English aren't, but there's less anger towards the Soviets there given that they've never placed any troops there. Maybe the Republic of Ireland will accept the Soviet's offer of aid, but I don't think the stalemate is going to get resolved until the PRE situation has resolved one way or another.
 
And btw, the Soviet Union may be around forever, but it's starting to lose its stranglehold over Europe. Look at the revolutions happening in the People's Republic of England, for instance, and the ongoing Irish Civil War. That nasty guerilla war in Alaska isn't really helping things out any.

"Stranglehold?" That's a bit of a stretch. You can make a case for Germany, but France has been more of an equal partner in the Communist sphere; the Republic has held free and fair elections since the end of the war. Hell, the Conservatives won a majority of parliament seats in 1993, 2002, and 2007.

Going back to the topic at hand, I think one of the biggest effects of a more successful Germany would be in American-Japanese relations. It's no secret that the Empire of Japan wanted to launch an attack on the Philippines to add to its co-prosperity sphere; if they hadn't been distracted by the Red Army invading Manchuria, they might have been stupid enough to try an attack on the US. Without US-Japanese detente following the end of the war, there would be no PTO, and the Asian Economic Miracles in China, Vietnam, Korea, Formosa, the Philippines, and Canton might not have happened.


OOC: I'm sorry, I can't really figure out how a "People's Republic of England" could come about given a post-1918 PoD. There's no reason to change the name unless the Monarchy becomes fiercely unpopular, and in all honesty they aren't powerful enough for the home isles to hate them.
 
This is a totally ASB scenario.

IF Hitler HAD plans to invade the SU, he would not have committed in the Balkans and North Africa. He would have attacked IMMEDIATELY after the spring rain season and the streets had dried up enough in the east. (1-2 months earlier). That he had not done it proved that he had NO plans to do it. After all he was - and all historians concede this - the most brillant political leader (barring Comrade Stalin of course) of the period. In 1941 the wehrmacht did not have the level of mecanisation necessary to beat russia. 1943 or even 1942 maybe, realistcally 1944 when the new tank desgins would have been ready Germany would have had a technological advantage necessary to beat the Rodina, but not in 1941 when the purges beared fruit and the right men were put in command of the red Army...

You would need amn insane madman whith a bunch of silly cronies - probably putting parts of the own population in death camps instead of using them to produce weapons.

even August Zaleski admitted that the biggest mistake in Polish histroy was that they had NOT yielded the Corridor and Danzig to Germany. He said if the Pilsudki govermnet had maintained good relations with Germany the corridor would have been a small price for larger gains in the east as ally of Germany.
 
He didn't have to beat the Soviet Union. Not in 1941.

Although it's not so commonly known, other than for those historians who focus on the campaigns of Germany vs Poland and Germany vs France, the Germans had their own version of the Deep Battle Theory, they called it Lightning War. It was actually superior (sorry!) to to the DBT when used in smaller scenarios, with shorter distances and less maneuverability*.

What i mean is that the Nazis had developed their own goal-oriented philosophy of war. They didn't have to beat the Soviet Union early on, they only had to attack Ukraine and the pincer on the Caucasian republics thanks to their advance from the Balkans into Anatolia and from North Africa into the Middle East.
That would have been a serious setback for the Soviets and give the Nazi warmachine an almost unlimited watering hole.

I mean, it's not as if there was any particularly well defended position in the southern USSR at that moment. The path to the Caspian sea is almost expedite.

* just remember the problem the Soviets had in France, against the combined forces of the republic of Vichy and the Free France. If it wasn't for the underground actions of the PCF, France would still be a rightist hell-hole.
 
OOC: Can anyone explain to me why an army that got its ass handed to it by a much smaller force less than 2 years before, and was still rebuilding itself would chose to attack an enemy which had rolled over half a continent since then?

Can't see it myself.
 
OOC: Can anyone explain to me why an army that got its ass handed to it by a much smaller force less than 2 years before, and was still rebuilding itself would chose to attack an enemy which had rolled over half a continent since then?

Can't see it myself.

OOC: The PoD is implied to be sometime before 1936, so there's a little bit of leeway for butterflies and whatnot.
 
I dont know, some new reports from the recently declassified Berlin archives have drawn up htlers planned invasion of the USSR called " operation Barbarossa." Acoording to it, the German army would aim to eliminate moscow, lenigrad and kiev quickly by encirculing the soviet army and push them back over the Urals by 1942.

I however, conclude that this wouldnt be possibl. Firstly, Stalin would have to be an IDIOT to allow his army to just stand there and be surrounded.
Secondly, the distance and logistics wearnt there, the german army was not geared for a long term war and would lead itself open to a counter attack, possibly on the outskirts of moscow. Besides, Leningrad would stall them for at least 100 days.

And by the way, the uprising here in the uk is valid and is against a tyrranical regieme.

Support the monarchy! Freedome for Britain!
 
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