DBWI: Hillary drops Bayh in 2012

Pretty much what it says up top. There was some pretty serious speculation in late 2011/early 2012 that President Clinton would replace Bayh with another VP candidate, possibly her old foe Barack Obama. Of course, she didn't, and the rest is history.

But how would 2012 have unfolded with a different VP for Hillary? Who does she pick and what effects would this have on the general election? What effects, if any, on the Republican race?
 
Well, Clinton would have won anyway, the GOP primaries was a disastrous one and the veep pick of the Dems cannot change that.

I would say about 45 EVs more than OTL, perhaps swing a few Southern states. With Obama on the ticket, Virginia could be flipped, and NC would be closer.
 

DTanza

Banned
I don't think a different VP pick would have given her a bigger victory. Hell it might have given her a smaller one if she was seen as a traitor by dropping Bayh.

Besides, Obama's the frontrunner for 2016 whether or not he had been made the VP. The last thing we need is bad blood between him and Bayh that might lead to a painful primary battle for the Democrats.
 

d32123

Banned
Picking Bayh was critical in winning over white working class voters. A black VP would have been way too divisive.
 
I don't think a different VP pick would have given her a bigger victory. Hell it might have given her a smaller one if she was seen as a traitor by dropping Bayh.

Besides, Obama's the frontrunner for 2016 whether or not he had been made the VP. The last thing we need is bad blood between him and Bayh that might lead to a painful primary battle for the Democrats.

This is a good point.
 

d32123

Banned
Honestly Obama 2016 is a Future History cliche more than anything. He might be able to win the primaries, but I have a hard time imagining him overcoming the Bradley Effect and winning in the general election in a less anti-Republican year than 2008.
 

DTanza

Banned
Honestly Obama 2016 is a Future History cliche more than anything. He might be able to win the primaries, but I have a hard time imagining him overcoming the Bradley Effect and winning in the general election in a less anti-Republican year than 2008.

They said the same about a woman winning the nomination and election.
 
Dropping Bayh would have been way too messy and would probably been interpreted as President Clinton picking sides in what's shaping up to be quite a primary battle in 2016 between Obama and VP Bayh. For what it's worth, I actually think Obama would have been a better long-run choice in 2008 given where demographics are headed, but picking Bayh did allow Hillary to win a few of the southern/border states that had been trending Republican in presidential elections but were still winnable for a Democrat, such as Arkansas and West Virginia. But, in '08, it probably was a wash in the electoral college, as Obama might just have picked up VA and NC. Bayh was probably responsible for the Democrats breaking the GOP lock on Indiana as well in '08.
 

DTanza

Banned
Women make up 50% of the population. Black make up like 12%. You do the math.

I still say you overestimate how racist the United States is. The man's polling ahead of Bayh by nearly 15 points, and he's ahead of any generic Republican.
 
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