DBWI: Gordon Brown Waits?

Hi guys,

We all know what happened in OTL-after taking over as Labour Leader and PM in June 2007, Brown went to the country and won a small labour majority on November 15th of that year.

But what if he had been persuaded not to call an election? I understand Brown was in 2 minds about it for a while and since Major waited 18 months before he called an election, it wouldn't be out of the question.

How does an unelected Brown deal with the events post November 2007 (eg the 2008 crash)? On one hand he hasn't won his own mandate, but on the other he has a bigger majority presumerably backing him. What happens in the Conservatives and Lib Dems?

In theory, Brown could wait until 2010, but would he do this? Let's say he let's the parliament run it's course (as I think he would in these circumstances, hoping to turn the economy around). What are the results of a theoretical 2010 election likely to be?
 
It would be a long and drawn out affair.

All the problems that Labour faced in the 2007-2009 period would be multiplied by the "no mandate" label given to him, the 10 seat majority was bad for him but it would be better than to have the constant criticisms thrown at him of never going to the public and I imagine Cameron will be marching up and down with that slogan.

I would say a complete Labour meltdown akin to 1997 as the Conservatives get a good 80-100 seat majority instead of the 30 we got. With many leadership candidates being decapitated, we may see a backlash against New Labour and have David Miliband lose his chance at the top, perhaps Alistair Darling chooses to run on a "I tried to warn him" platform and becomes leader, it wouldn't stop Ed Balls' sniping from the sidelines about continuing to spend more in times of austerity but it may have the LibDems keep Clegg with a Tory boom excuse.

One bad thing for our side is maybe that Cameron never drops Osborne and keeps him as Chancellor instead of leaving him in Transport, Hague's barely more popular than Darling due to his oratory so I would give Labour a lead in the polls without having to compete with Hughes for the left wing vote and having a Osborne-sized punching bag.
 
Waiting while being technically un-elected would be suicide for Brown. Given that the economic crisis's steady recovery supplied him with re-election earlier this year was mostly due to him having time on his side to fix it. No way could he have saved the economy in just three years. David Cameron would most likely become PM with a small majority, the Lib Dems could have gained even more seats than OTL 2012 (72).
 
OOC: As you guys have contradicted each other, I'm going to go with Blackadder, who got in first. Anyway...
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How do people think that events would have played out without the Lisbon Treaty Referendum being forced on Brown by Eurosceptic Labour MPs voting in alliance with the Tories? Obviously the OTL "No" vote led by Cameron can be seen in hindsight as him sealing the dealing on the path to Downing Street, but if Brown has a 50+ majority at the time, there won't be a referendum at all. That'll mean Cameron has to face UKIP in the hundred seats that Pearson stood aside in IOTL, which will certainly hurt the effort.

In fact, I suspect that the outcome of a 2010 election would be pretty similar to OTL's 2012- a Conservative majority of around thirty seats. The UKIP factor alone probably precludes a Tory landslide.

EDIT- Another thought. Without Lisbon and its associated recriminations, extended fights between Blairites and Brownites, etc etc, Labour will be a much more united Opposition Party. I'd imagine that ITTL they'd be leading the Conservative Government by at least 15-20 points under David Miliband.
 
OOC: As you guys have contradicted each other, I'm going to go with Blackadder, who got in first. Anyway...
___

How do people think that events would have played out without the Lisbon Treaty Referendum being forced on Brown by Eurosceptic Labour MPs voting in alliance with the Tories? Obviously the OTL "No" vote led by Cameron can be seen in hindsight as him sealing the dealing on the path to Downing Street, but if Brown has a 50+ majority at the time, there won't be a referendum at all. That'll mean Cameron has to face UKIP in the hundred seats that Pearson stood aside in IOTL, which will certainly hurt the effort.

In fact, I suspect that the outcome of a 2010 election would be pretty similar to OTL's 2012- a Conservative majority of around thirty seats. The UKIP factor alone probably precludes a Tory landslide.

EDIT- Another thought. Without Lisbon and its associated recriminations, extended fights between Blairites and Brownites, etc etc, Labour will be a much more united Opposition Party. I'd imagine that ITTL they'd be leading the Conservative Government by at least 15-20 points under David Miliband.

OOC: Oops ninga'd.
 
OOC: As you guys have contradicted each other, I'm going to go with Blackadder, who got in first. Anyway...
___

How do people think that events would have played out without the Lisbon Treaty Referendum being forced on Brown by Eurosceptic Labour MPs voting in alliance with the Tories? Obviously the OTL "No" vote led by Cameron can be seen in hindsight as him sealing the dealing on the path to Downing Street, but if Brown has a 50+ majority at the time, there won't be a referendum at all. That'll mean Cameron has to face UKIP in the hundred seats that Pearson stood aside in IOTL, which will certainly hurt the effort.

In fact, I suspect that the outcome of a 2010 election would be pretty similar to OTL's 2012- a Conservative majority of around thirty seats. The UKIP factor alone probably precludes a Tory landslide.

EDIT- Another thought. Without Lisbon and its associated recriminations, extended fights between Blairites and Brownites, etc etc, Labour will be a much more united Opposition Party. I'd imagine that ITTL they'd be leading the Conservative Government by at least 15-20 points under David Miliband.

Yeah. That Lisbon "No" Vote was damaging. Especially considering that just 18% of the electorate said so. But not as much as the Double-Dip we got a year later - Triple if we get a second dip for the third quarter of this financial year. Though I'll admit it's so early in the New Term that Cameron can still blame Labour for it.

Let's say that he did hold off until 2010. That would likely give Cameron an outright majority as per OTL. The problem he'd face is that the Economy would still be in the doldrums for the early years, and possibly allow Labour back in if they could get their act together. As it is, it should have recovered by the time we get another one - whether it be in 2016 or 2017 - and the Tories may just be able to hold onto Government.

So while holding off would cause some short term pain for Labour in such a scenario. It could well work in their favour in the long run. In short, holding off could have been in their long-term interests. But such is the way of Hindsight.
 
Interesting points guys and I agree that Cameron would probably win a 2010 election, though their's an outside chance of a hung parliament.

I wonder whether the expenses scandle would affect a theoretical 2010 election in any way? 3 years on it seems like a distant memory, but a year afterwards?

What happens to the Lib Dems in all of this? Blackadder seems to think Clegg still ends up as leader at some point, though personally I don't see Ming Campbell going in 2007 without the poor election results of that year-more likely he'll hang around to fight the 2010 election ITTL.
 
Probably better for all concerned in the long term. Nick would do very well against a bloated Gordon government that had staggered on without a mandate (look how well he did this year in the debates - wasn't he marvelous?) and so we'd probably go up to between 100 and 120 seats in this '2010 election' if Cameron remains as useless and unprogressive as he's been IOTL.

On a personal note, 2007 was the year I toyed with joining Labour - it was Brown's demeanour and mucky campaign against our Ming that showed me where my true loyalties lay, though. If he'd waited, who knows where I'd be?

OOC: ;)
 
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