DBWI GHW Bush not assassinated

This is a controversial topic, but its been long enough since the event that we might be able to have an adult discussion of it. Not only was the first President Bush assassinated in October 1992, but in 1998-9 Bill Clinton was accused by the special prosecutor of ordering the hit resulting in impeachment proceedings. While Clinton's exact role is still the subject of fierce argument, what if the assassination doesn't happen in the first place? Would Clinton still have defeated Bush in the election anyway?
 
OOC: yes, I did consider if this one is too trollish, but looking at just how far US domestic politics can jump off the tracks might also be very appropriate in 2017. And there was a popular British TV series about a Prime Minister murdering people to advance his career, so the idea is not unprecedented.
 
Well, if you believe the conspiracy theorists/prosecutors, Clinton ordered the assassination because he didn't think he'd be able to win against Bush. I'm sceptical - Clinton was pretty popular back then, before his Vice-President was revealed to be up to his neck in corruption even by American standards, so he would have stood a fairly good chance. Not sure if he'd have won in 1996 with a more competent candidate against him than Hatch - Bush had implied that he'd have tried again in 1996, and since the race was very close until the assassination, he'd have stood a good chance. On the other hand, the Republicans might not have won in 2000 if it wasn't for the assassination - Jeb Bush's campaign, with the whole 'finishing what my father started' thing and crusade against corruption, was incredibly popular and captured the national mood.
 
I can tell you now. If Bush hadn't been assaulted liberal policies would be a lot stronger. During Jebs and later Mccains; presidencies conservative ideals such as balanced budgets and energy independence went through.

As heart breaking as the assassination was; it spurred the country to self efficiency. We haven't had to import oil since 2011.
 
I agree about Clinton. But you know us Americans. Nothing sells like a scandal. They found the assassin who shot President Bush; and he claimed that he was doing it to persuade the Azidians (whoever they are) not to invade Earth.
 
I agree about Clinton. But you know us Americans. Nothing sells like a scandal. They found the assassin who shot President Bush; and he claimed that he was doing it to persuade the Azidians (whoever they are) not to invade Earth.

Well, if you believe the conspiracy theorists, that guy would have confessed to assassinating Kennedy, Lincoln, and Puff the Magic Dragon if he thought it would get him on the news... In all seriousness, though, the assassination was a bit dodgy (severe security lapses all around), and whilst the accusation was clearly motivated by partisan concerns, the impeachment proceedings did at least underline how connected everyone in both the Clinton and Bush administrations had been to big business and...shadier groups - something that both the Republicans and the Democrats have moved away from since Jeb got in.
 
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