DBWI: Germany not unified in 1848

As we all know, King Frederick William IV of Prussia, albeit with great reluctance, accepted the Frankfurt Parliament's proposal that he be made Emperor of the German Empire in 1848, but what if he refused the crown and Germany wasn't unified in 1848? Would Germany have remained a series of small Kingdoms? Or would it have been unified anyway, albeit later and probably under a republican government? How would it have affected Europe? Could Austria have survived as opposed to being annexed by the German Empire (with the Czechs, Hungarians, and Croats gaining independence)?
 
It actually was 1849. But I like the idea of Friedrich Wilhelm just refusing the offer instead of the usual PODs we get with the War of German Unification going the other way, or Russia not stepping in to broker the timely armistice.

Probably Franz Joseph could have crushed the German Parliament, but there are investing ramifications.

Does the new Prussian constitution go away too? Because if it does, things do quiet down a lot. If the Prussian constitution stays in place, Friedrich Wilhelm or his brother Wilhelm may have to call Bismarck in a Chancellor like they did IOTL to handle the Reichstag. And even if Bismarck is just in charge of Prussia, things get very interesting, though I think in 1848-50 he was not that favorable towards German unification.

With the Hapsburgs having recovered their footing, do they avoid the Triple Monarchy? It was only due to the defeat by Prussia that they created the Kingdom of Italy, combining Lombardy and Venetia with Tuscany. And that precedent was important in the creation of the Kingdom of Hungary later on. The fact that they are still heavily involved in Germany, and they have not suffered that big a loss of prestige, may persuade them against it.

And then you have Napoleon III which is a huge wildcard. Yes, IOTL he stuck closely with his alliance with the British and concentrated on boosting his prestige with colonial ventures. But with Germany right on his borders he had to be cautious. Who knows what he would have tried otherwise. And there would have been no need of the OTL alliance of the French Empire with what became known as Austria-Italy.

The pattern of liberalism and nationalism being mostly defeated in 1848-50, then governments making concessions anyway at a slow pace, still happens, but in terms of diplomacy and balance of power, a united German makes a big difference.
 
things get much much worse in a couple generations.

Wielheilm Kaiser was an infamous milatarist, who would have plunged the continant into war, it took expert diplomacy to keep the serbian crisis of the early teens from sprialing out of control into a general war. If Prime Minister Shultz wasn't there and empowered to handle it things would have gone real bad.

In stead of 20th century being a century of peace it would have been one full of war and conflict.
 
How likely is a scenario where Germany is unified under some sort of republican government instead of the German Empire in a scenario where Friedrich Wilhelm refused the throne of Germany?
 
In stead of 20th century being a century of peace it would have been one full of war and conflict.
What, the 20th century wasn't full of war and conflict? Almost the entirety of the 20th century starting from the 1905 rebellion in Annam saw wars against European colonialism. More people died in the Indian war of independence alone than in all the Napoleonic wars combined, with Britain virtually bankrupt by the end! The Portuguese lost an entire generation of men to its wars in Africa, while the Tsar's "punitive expedition" in China wiped out an entire generation of men (in addition to his head).

Europe itself may have seen little bloodshed, but that's of no relevance.
 
What, the 20th century wasn't full of war and conflict? Almost the entirety of the 20th century starting from the 1905 rebellion in Annam saw wars against European colonialism. More people died in the Indian war of independence alone than in all the Napoleonic wars combined, with Britain virtually bankrupt by the end! The Portuguese lost an entire generation of men to its wars in Africa, while the Tsar's "punitive expedition" in China wiped out an entire generation of men (in addition to his head).

Europe itself may have seen little bloodshed, but that's of no relevance.
Yea, I could argue that the Indian War of Independence and Russia's failed intervention in China were arguably proxy wars as the Indian nationalists and the Chinese Republic were both backed by the Mittleeuropa Pact against Nationalist Britain and Tsarist Russia.
 
So, what do you think would a unified Germany sans Frankfurt look like? Would Germany have become a republic, then?
 
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