DBWI: George H.W. Bush loses re-election in 1992

OOC: I was actually talking about the recent midterms, but we can do 1994. Even though I said Republicans gained some seats in 1994 in the Senate, we can have Democrats gain seats despite George H.W. Bush’s approval rating growing higher.
 
Seeing as how the midterms just ended, it reminded me of something. How did, in 1994, the Senate and House go in opposite directions? Republicans picked up five seats in the Senate, with Jon Kyl, Bill Frist, Spencer Abraham, Michael Huffington, and Mike DeWine, but Democrats were able to snatch a net gain of 17 seats, increasing their ever diminishing majority.
 

samcster94

Banned
Seeing as how the midterms just ended, it reminded me of something. How did, in 1994, the Senate and House go in opposite directions? Republicans picked up five seats in the Senate, with Jon Kyl, Bill Frist, Spencer Abraham, Michael Huffington, and Mike DeWine, but Democrats were able to snatch a net gain of 17 seats, increasing their ever diminishing majority.
The 90's were a weird time politically, especially given the odd continuity with the 80's. The GOP did get the house back in 1998 though. Ann Richards barely held on as Governor, which showed how the conservative Southern Dem was a waning force in the politics that decade. If BC had won, it probably would have been even worse and earlier for that faction.
How did this years go again, I kind of fell asleep??
 
Got that right, I was always puzzled by how the Congress went in completely opposite directions. You'd think that the national vibe would affect both the Senate and the House.

And I wouldn't blame you for falling asleep in this year's midterms, they dragged on into the next morning. Here are the results of the Senate races. I'll put Governor races up later:

Arizona: Senator Ben Quayle (R) defeated Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (D) to win a second term
California: Senator Michael Huffington (R) defeated Governor Gavin Newsom (D) to win a fifth term
Connecticut: Mayor Dannel Malloy (D) defeated one-term incumbent Senator Linda McMahon (R) to win his first term (Dem. gain)
Delaware: Former Senator and Vice President Joe Biden (D) defeated Congressman Mike Castle (R) to return to the Senate
Florida: Governor Marco Rubio (R) defeated three-term incumbent Senator Bill Nelson (D) to win his first term (Rep. gain)
Hawaii: Senator Mazie Hirono (D) defeated former Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona (R) to win a second term
Indiana: State Senator Mike Braun (R) defeated U.S. Congressman Baron Hill (D) to win his first term (Rep. gain)
Maine: Senator Olympia Snowe (R) defeated Governor Angus King (I) to win a fourth term
Maryland: Senator Michael Steele (R) defeated former Mayor Martin O’Malley (D) win his third term
Massachusetts: Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) defeated Mayor Kirsten Hughes (R) to win a second term
Michigan: Businessman and Army veteran John James (R) defeated three-term incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow (R) to win his first term (Rep. gain)
Minnesota: Governor Amy Klobouchar (D) defeated two-term incumbent Senator Mark Kennedy (R) to win her first term (Dem. gain)
Mississippi: Senator Roger Wicker (R) defeated State Senator Omeria Scott (D) to win his third term
Missouri: Navy SEAL veteran Eric Greitens (R) defeated former Governor Claire McCaskill (D) to win his first term (Rep. gain)
Montana: Senator Jon Tester (D) defeated Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) to win a second term
Nebraska: Senator Deb Fischer (R) defeated Councilwoman Jane Raybould (D) to win a second term
Nevada: Congressman Joe Heck (R) defeated Congresswoman Jacky Rosen (D) to win his first term
New Jersey: Senator Thomas Kean Jr. (R) defeated former Ambassador Phil Murphy (D) to win his third term
New Mexico: Senator Martin Heinrich (D) defeated Governor Susana Martinez (R) to win his second term
New York: Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D) defeated former Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg (R) to win her second term.
North Dakota: Senator Rick Berg (R) defeated former Governor Heidi Heitkamp (D) to win his second term
Ohio: Governor John Kasich (R) defeated incumbent two-term Senator Sherrod Brown (D) to win his first term. (Rep. gain)
Pennsylvania: Congressman Lou Barletta (R) defeated former Governor Ed Rendell (D) to win his first term. (Rep. gain)
Rhode Island: Governor Allan Fung (R) defeated Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea (D) to win his first full term.
Tennessee: Governor Bill Haslam (R) defeated former Governor Phil Bredesen (D) to win his first term.
Texas: Senator Ted Cruz (R) defeated Congressman Beto O'Rourke (D) to win his second term.
Utah: Businessman Peter Huntsman (R) defeated Misty Snow (D) to win his first term.
Vermont: Senator Bernie Sanders (I) defeated Lawrence Zupan (R) to win his fourth term.
Virginia: Senator Nick Freias (R) defeated Congressman Terry McAuliffe to win his first full term.
Washington: Former Governor Dino Rossi (R) defeated incumbent three-term Senator Maria Cantwell (D) to win his first term. (Rep. gain)
West Virginia: Senator Joe Manchin (D) defeated Congressman Evan Jenkins (R) to win a second term.
Wisconsin: Businessman Kevin Nicholson (R) defeated incumbent one-term Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) to win his first term. (Rep. gain)
Wyoming: Senator John Barrasso (R) defeated Mike Gosar (D) to win his second term.

Republicans snatched a net gain of 5 seats, while losing three. This, along with Republicans retaining control of the House and a majority of governorships, might have been due to the shocking news that President Huntsman, last month, was recently diagnosed with Stage 1 melanoma. Republicans might have received a good amount of the sympathy vote for Jon Huntsman, even though the president said not to vote based on his recent cancer diagnosis, and instead based on the candidates themselves.

OOC: I am not kidding about that Huntsman diagnosis. He really was diagnosed with Stage 1 melanoma last month.
 
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Got that right, I was always puzzled by how the Congress went in completely opposite directions. You'd think that the national vibe would affect both the Senate and the House.

And I wouldn't blame you for falling asleep in this year's midterms, they dragged on into the next morning. Here are the results of the Senate races. I'll put Governor races up later:

Arizona: Senator Ben Quayle (R) defeated Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (D) to win a second term
California: Senator Michael Huffington (R) defeated Governor Gavin Newsom (D) to win a fifth term
Connecticut: Mayor Dannel Malloy (D) defeated one-term incumbent Senator Linda McMahon (R) to win his first term (Dem. gain)
Delaware: Former Senator and Vice President Joe Biden (D) defeated Congressman Mike Castle (R) to return to the Senate
Florida: Governor Marco Rubio (R) defeated three-term incumbent Senator Bill Nelson (D) to win his first term (Rep. gain)
Hawaii: Senator Mazie Hirono (D) defeated former Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona (R) to win a second term
Indiana: State Senator Mike Braun (R) defeated U.S. Congressman Baron Hill (D) to win his first term (Rep. gain)
Maine: Senator Olympia Snowe (R) defeated Governor Angus King (I) to win a fourth term
Maryland: Former Governor Martin O'Malley (D) defeated two-term incumbent Senator Michael Steele (R) to win his first term (Dem. gain)
Massachusetts: Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) defeated Mayor Kirsten Hughes (R) to win a second term
Michigan: Businessman and Army veteran John James (R) defeated three-term incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow (R) to win his first term (Rep. gain)
Minnesota: Governor Amy Klobouchar (D) defeated two-term incumbent Senator Mark Kennedy (R) to win her first term (Dem. gain)
Mississippi: Senator Roger Wicker (R) defeated State Senator Omeria Scott (D) to win his third term
Missouri: Navy SEAL veteran Eric Greitens (R) defeated former Governor Claire McCaskill (D) to win his first term (Rep. gain)
Montana: Senator Jon Tester (D) defeated Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) to win a second term
Nebraska: Senator Deb Fischer (R) defeated Councilwoman Jane Raybould (D) to win a second term
Nevada: Congressman Joe Heck (R) defeated Congresswoman Jacky Rosen (D) to win his first term
New Jersey: Senator Thomas Kean Jr. (R) defeated former Ambassador Phil Murphy (D) to win his third term
New Mexico: Senator Martin Heinrich (D) defeated Governor Susana Martinez (R) to win his second term
New York: Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D) defeated former Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg (R) to win her second term.
North Dakota: Senator Rick Berg (R) defeated former Governor Heidi Heitkamp (D) to win his second term
Ohio: Governor John Kasich (R) defeated incumbent two-term Senator Sherrod Brown (D) to win his first term. (Rep. gain)
Pennsylvania: Congressman Lou Barletta (R) defeated former Governor Ed Rendell (D) to win his first term. (Rep. gain)
Rhode Island: Governor Allan Fung (R) defeated Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea (D) to win his first full term.
Tennessee: Governor Bill Haslam (R) defeated former Governor Phil Bredesen (D) to win his first term.
Texas: Senator Ted Cruz (R) defeated Congressman Beto O'Rourke (D) to win his second term.
Utah: Businessman Peter Huntsman (R) defeated Misty Snow (D) to win his first term.
Vermont: Senator Bernie Sanders (I) defeated Lawrence Zupan (R) to win his fourth term.
Virginia: Senator Nick Freias (R) defeated Congressman Terry McAuliffe to win his first full term.
Washington: Former Governor Dino Rossi (R) defeated incumbent three-term Senator Maria Cantwell (D) to win his first term. (Rep. gain)
West Virginia: Senator Joe Manchin (D) defeated Congressman Evan Jenkins (R) to win a second term.
Wisconsin: Businessman Kevin Nicholson (R) defeated incumbent one-term Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) to win his first term. (Rep. gain)
Wyoming: Senator John Barrasso (R) defeated Mike Gosar (D) to win his second term.

Republicans snatched a net gain of 5 seats, while losing three. This, along with Republicans retaining control of the House and a majority of governorships, might have been due to the shocking news that President Huntsman, last month, was recently diagnosed with Stage 1 melanoma. Republicans might have received a good amount of the sympathy vote for Jon Huntsman, even though the president said not to vote based on his recent cancer diagnosis, and instead based on the candidates themselves.

OOC: I am not kidding about that Huntsman diagnosis. He really was diagnosed with Stage 1 melanoma last month.

This very nice, you know, it's good to see that Senator Kean was able to hold his seat in my state, especially with how close Murphy made it with the attack ads. Although I must say, I'm very sad about Huntsman, he's such a natural leader and just a good man.

OOC: Thank you for such a detailed midterm post. I am amazed. Sympathies go out to Huntsman, seriously. He doesn't deserve that.
 
This very nice, you know, it's good to see that Senator Kean was able to hold his seat in my state, especially with how close Murphy made it with the attack ads. Although I must say, I'm very sad about Huntsman, he's such a natural leader and just a good man.

OOC: Thank you for such a detailed midterm post. I am amazed. Sympathies go out to Huntsman, seriously. He doesn't deserve that.

I’m so glad Allan Fung won. I’ve campaigned for him since his first Governor election in 2010, and seeing him win the Senate seat was awesome!

Huntsman’s diagnosis was the October surprise this time around, but’s one you never want to hear, especially from the President. I hope he’s able to still do his job.

OOC: Thanks! It was definitely meticulous having to go back through past Senate election cycles trying to figure out where points of divergence would be according to this timeline, such as Kean winning the Senate against Menendez in 2006 because 2006 ITTL is a wave year for Republicans.
 
And here are the Governor races:

Alabama: Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange (R) defeated District Attorney Doug Jones (D)
Alaska: State Senator Mike Dunleavy (R) defeated incumbent one-term Governor Bill Walker (I) (Rep. gain)
Arizona: Governor Doug Ducey (R) defeated David Garcia (D)
Arkansas: Governor Mike Ross (D) defeated Arkansas Attorney General Mark Martin (R)
California: Mayor Kevin Faulconer (R) defeated Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) to win his first term (Rep. gain)
Colorado: Mayor Michael Bennet (D) defeated incumbent one-term Governor Cynthia Coffman (Dem. gain)
Connecticut: Bob Stefanowski (R) defeated incumbent two-term Governor Nancy Wyman (Rep. gain)
Florida: Congressman Adam Putnam (R) defeated Mayor Andrew Gillum (D)
Georgia: State Senate Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) defeated Congressman Tom Price (R) (Dem. gain)
Hawaii: Governor David Ige (D) defeated former Governor Linda Lingle (R)
Idaho: Governor Butch Otter (R) defeated AJ Balukoff (D)
Illinois: Governor Daniel Hynes (D) defeated Councilwoman Evelyn Sanguinetti (R)
Iowa: Governor Terry Branstad (R) defeated former Secretary of State Chet Culver (D)
Kansas: Governor Paul Davis (D) defeated former Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer (R)
Maine: Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap (D) defeated businessman Paul LePage (R)
Maryland: Governor Larry Hogan (R) defeated Ben Jealous (D)
Massachusetts: Governor Kerry Healey (R) defeated Congressman Deval Patrick (D)
Michigan: Former Senator and U.S. Secretary of State Spencer Abraham (R) defeated Mayor Virgil Bernero (D) (Rep. gain)
Minnesota: Congressman Rick Nolan (D) defeated State Representative Sarah Anderson (R) (Dem. gain)
Nebraska: Beau McCoy (R) defeated State Senator Steve Lathrup (D)
Nevada: Nevada Secretary of State Dean Heller (R) defeated Dina Titus (D)
New Hampshire: Governor Chris Sununu (R) defeated former Governor Maggie Hassan (D)
New Mexico: New Mexico Attorney Genera Hector Balderas (D) defeated Aubrey Dunn Jr. (R) (Dem. gain)
New York: Governor Rudy Giuliani (D) defeated New York City Councilwoman Vanessa Gibson (D)
Ohio: Congressman Jim Renacci (R) defeated former Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D)
Oklahoma: Oklahoma Attorney General Drew Edmonson (D) defeated Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb (R) (Dem. gain)
Pennsylvania: Governor Joe Sestak (D) defeated Tom Smith (R)
Rhode Island: Congressman David Ciciline (D) defeated Mayor Scott Avedisian (R) (Dem. gain)
South Carolina: Governor Henry McMaster (R) defeated State Senator Marlon Kimpson (D)
South Dakota: Congresswoman Kristi Noem (R) defeated Stephanie Sandlin (D)
Tennessee: Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn (R) defeated Mayor Andy Burke (D)
Texas: Governor Greg Abbott (R) defeated Wendy Davis (D)
Vermont: Scott Milne (R) defeated incumbent Governor Peter Shumlin (D) (Rep. gain)
Wisconsin: Governor Scott Walker (R) defeated Mayor Paul Soglin (D)
 
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So as you can see, Republicans didn’t do too bad nationwide. Personally, the most surprising win of the night came in California, where Kevin Faulconer was able to upset Eric Garcetti, considering Garcetti led in every poll taken.
 
So as you can see, Republicans didn’t do too bad nationwide. Personally, the most surprising win of the night came in California, where Kevin Faulconer was able to upset Eric Garcetti, considering Garcetti led in every poll taken.

As a Californian, it surprised me too. I did notice he was over performing with younger voters compared to usual, but even when I voted for him I never expected him to win
 
As a Californian, it surprised me too. I did notice he was over performing with younger voters compared to usual, but even when I voted for him I never expected him to win

Yeah, his moderate views made him appealing to the millennial block that was voting for the first time. Plus, many people were dissatisfied with Gavin Newsom’s last two years as Governor, being as how he spent a majority of them fervently opposing President Huntsman, who by many standards is not the extremely right wing, hardline conservative Newsom painted him to be. That might also be the reason he lost his Senate race.
 
Yeah, his moderate views made him appealing to the millennial block that was voting for the first time. Plus, many people were dissatisfied with Gavin Newsom’s last two years as Governor, being as how he spent a majority of them fervently opposing President Huntsman, who by many standards is not the extremely right wing, hardline conservative Newsom painted him to be. That might also be the reason he lost his Senate race.

Newsom has always been too eager to saber-rattle. Even my mom who votes almost 100% Democrat says she regretted supporting Newsom in 2014 and voted Faulconer this cycle
 
Newsom has always been too eager to saber-rattle. Even my mom who votes almost 100% Democrat says she regretted supporting Newsom in 2014 and voted Faulconer this cycle

It also didn’t help that Newsom, in a debate against Michael Huffington, which took place three days after President Huntsman informed the nation of his cancer diagnosis, said at one time during it, “The President and his far right agenda does not concern me. As far as I’m concerned, I’ll be his worst nightmare in the Senate.”

The comment was widely derided in the media due to its being said at such a sensitive time. Both Democrats and Republicans condemned Newsom. Hell, even Senator Kamala Harris, someone she has supported during his entire tenure as Governor, called on Newsom to apologize. At a time when every single politician imaginable was reaching out to the President, no matter how much they disagreed with him, Gavin Newsom tried to use it to score political points.

Even though he apologized for it, and even met with the President at the White House to make amends, it still ended up being the Freudian slip that caused his downfall.
 

samcster94

Banned
This very nice, you know, it's good to see that Senator Kean was able to hold his seat in my state, especially with how close Murphy made it with the attack ads. Although I must say, I'm very sad about Huntsman, he's such a natural leader and just a good man.

OOC: Thank you for such a detailed midterm post. I am amazed. Sympathies go out to Huntsman, seriously. He doesn't deserve that.
I voted for his opponent and I still respect him as a human being
 
Any other results you guys were surprised about? Perhaps the Republicans gaining 4 seats in the House? Stacey Abrams upsetting Tom Price in Georgia? Andrew Gillum going down in Florida? John James upsetting Debbie Stabenow?
 
This very nice, you know, it's good to see that Senator Kean was able to hold his seat in my state, especially with how close Murphy made it with the attack ads.

I was surprised Murphy got so vicious with the attack ads. This was someone who crossed party lines to become Jeb Bush’s Ambassador to China, then Ambassador to the United Nations. He was labeling Kean as a “traitor” to his New Jersey values as a Senator, and even said that he can no longer say he follows the same values his father upheld as Governor.

A lot of people thought that crossed a line since it was so personal. It even caused the Democratic National Convention to pull their funding from his race. It all caused a bunch of independent voters to vote for Kean.
 
Hey guys, there has been many rumors that there are going to be upcoming retirements on the Supreme Court. Just as a refresher, here is the composition right now.

- Chief Justice Merrick Garland (appointed by John Kerry in 2005; replaced William Reinquist)
- Justice Clarence Thomas (appointed by George H.W. Bush in 1991; replaced Thurgood Marshall)
- Justice Emilio Garza (appointed in 1994 by George H.W. Bush; replaced Byron White)

- Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg (appointed in by Mario Cuomo in 1997; replaced Harry Blackmun)
- Justice Johnnie Rawlinson (appointed by John Kerry in 2006; replaced David Souter)

- Justice Amul Thapar (appointed by Jeb Bush in 2009; replaced Sandra Day O’Connor)
- Justice Miguel Estrada (appointed by Jeb Bush in 2010; replaced John Paul Stevens)
- Justice Neil Gorsuch (appointed by Jon Huntsman Jr. in 2017; replaced Antonin Scalia)
- Justice Amy Coney Barrett (appointed by Jon Huntsman Jr. in 2018; replaced Anthony Kennedy)

Obviously, the candidates who are speculating retirement are Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Clarence Thomas. With Huntsman’s re-election chances in 2020 pretty good so far, what are the odds he gets to replace Ginsburg or Thomas in his first term? And if so, who are the prospective judges he would replace them with?

OOC: I got kinda bored. Thought I’d revive this for discussion, since this topic is somewhat true today.
 
I realize that the Senate is 59-41 in favor of the Republicans, but I do believe that Ruth Bader Ginsburg would be infinitely more difficult to replace than Clarence Thomas. Thomas is a conservative powerhouse whose legacy will continue with his successor, but Ginsburg? Imagine the protests with replacing her. The protests when Amul Thapar replaced O’Connor, who become more liberal leaning in her later years, were something to see. When Miguel Estrada replaced Stevens, it was worse because it was a conservative replacing a liberal icon. When Amy Barrett replaces Kennedy, it was worse than the previous two combined because she was a strong conservative while Kennedy was a moderate who was liberal on social issues. But replacing the liberal deity that is RBG with a conservative? God, I can only imagine...
 
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